GCSE and A level Government/Ofqual 'Sweetner'

[HappySonHappyMum]

Does anyone else feel that the government/Ofqual have released appeal info and results pattern information in advance of the actual results to try and offset the fury that thousands of teenagers and parents are likely to feel on results days when they realise their kids have been shortchanged? I felt really angry for the Scottish kids when I saw how the data supplied to the SQA had been used. I am feeling even more worried now than I did before. This whole year group are going to lose out and there's nothing these kids can do about it .

I am absolutely incensed that they have decided to totally ignore all teacher judgements/predictions for any subject that has more than 15 entries. Just outrageous.
The arrogance that they, or any statistical model, can predict what a student's outcomes would have been better than the teachers who have worked with those students- some maybe since Year 7! It beggars belief. It is grossly unfair on the students and I am so angry about it.

Can anyone explain this to me in fairly simple terms? It's possible that this would disadvantage my dd whose predictions have gradually risen through her hard work.

ScrapThatThen Ofqual have used a statistical model based on teachers' ranking of the students in each subject, pupil's prior attainment and school's previous performance. The teacher assessed grade provided will be largely ignored. So essentially your DC's results are going to be largely determined by algorithm.

I didn't read too much about what the Scootjs model was, but am I correct that pupils's postcodes were used too? So that a pupil form a disadvantaged area would score lower than a pupil from a more affluent area?

@ScrapThatThen unfortunately Ofqual's sudden and seemingly last minute decision is very likely to disadvantage lots of students like your DD which is why I'm so cross about it. The algorithm will be based on what previous years of students have achieved- presumably taking into account their KS2 data and then what they did go on to achieve in their GCSEs. It's total and utter BS because I have taught a considerable number of students who had low target grades based on low KS2 grades like Es or 2s under new system, and then with lots and lots of hard work went on to achieve Cs/4s and above.
I suspect the reason Ofqual are announcing this now and didn't say they were going to do this in April, instead asking teachers across UK to put in hours upon hours of giving students fine predicted grades to generate rank order lists across year group- discussing and debating their gradings with colleagues and ensuring we had evidence to support our predicted grades, is because they knew the uproar it would cause amongst students, teachers and parents. They've left it til 2 weeks before GCSE results day because any protest made about it now is too late.

@TheGodmother I really hope postcodes won't be involved. Majority of my students live in what would be considered disadvantaged areas. Surely to involve postcodes is some form of class discrimination?!

@ScrapThatThen more info here: www.tes.com/news/GCSE-results-2020-teacher-grades-ignored?fbclid=IwAR3L4yu0hI9R1zpHYIfP5W-ay4za7zmWNfsYvviPsokGtnu3U1AyXJ2TeYY

Worth noting they will only be using teacher predictions for subjects where less than 15 students were due to take that exam. At GCSE that won't be very many at all.

There were complaints, too, about the SQA’s decision to cut Higher passes for pupils from the most deprived areas by over 15 points, from the 85.1% pass rate recommended by teachers down to 69.9%. By comparison, grades were cut in only 9.8% of cases for the best off pupils.

I am really concerned now. I won’t be able to trust any of my dds exam results ( even the good ones)
Does anyone actually think that students will have the opportunity to ‘resit’ exams In October?

Even if they have the opportunity to resit, how practical is that option?

They've had no teaching for 6 months; they will have to prepare without any teacher support and do this in conjunction with "whatever they've gone on to do next". I can only see pupils resitting if poorer than expected grades are stopping them moving on to do whatever they want to do next - and even then they might prefer to wait until May/June to give themselves more time. Maths/English resits at GCSE where the students hasn't got a 4 are probably the only exception to this, but those normally take place anyway.

@TheGodmother that is utterly appalling! I don't follow Scottish education issues so excuse my ignorance here- was there a huge outcry about it?

@ScrapThatThen the exam boards run November exams usually anyway so there will be chances to resit in that series. Whether or not they run an extra round of exams in October specifically for these Y11s I'm not sure.

@RedskyAtnight totally agree. The resit option for most subjects will end up being pointless for many due to lack of teaching. Lots of 6th forms and colleges are geared to offering English and Maths GCSE retake classes but not retake classes in other areas. The whole thing is an utter omnishambles.

So it's not just me then! The resits in October will be pointless unless you've got a highly motivated learner that has continued through lockdown with no school support - and lets face it they're not the kids that are going to end up getting low GCSE grades. I'm incensed by this - it's outrageous. I live in a disadvantaged area - my DS GCSE results were 4/5/6's in a better environment he would have achieved more. And now it looks like he'll be penalised for it at A level despite making huge leaps in progress at an excellent Sixth Form College. I despair.

most deprived areas by over 15 points, from the 85.1% pass rate recommended by teachers down to 69.9%. By comparison, grades were cut in only 9.8% of cases for the best off pupils.
This was debated on Scots et where all the figures were shown, not just this selective and misleading section.
The teachers' predictions for the least advantaged were massively out of step -ie egregiously inflated and do had to come down -the difference was much less in the other categories. Clearly some teacher ex were massively over- predicting which has caused this effect.

@lifeafter50 but wouldn't conclusions about significant over-inflation be based on those students' target grades? Which are themselves based on KS2 data? Is it not possible, that with all the magic schools are expected to work these days, that those students after 5 years in secondary had significantly improved in that subject and therefore were on track to achieve higher than their target grade? For me this is where the whole algorithm system falls down- it doesn't and can't take into account the efforts and progress of individual students. Conversely some lazy students will benefit considerably from Ofqual's method- they may have been bright and got high KS2 scores so therefore have a high GCSE target of a 7 or 8, but due to laziness and other factors would perhaps only realistically have achieved a 6 (I have at least 3 of these in my own class and I predicted them no higher than a 6+). Now they will all swan off with 7s and 8s and their peers who had lower TGs but worked their absolute socks off since Y9 and who would have achieved higher than their TG will be unfairly penalised.

Discalimer I have not read the recent stuff.

But Primarily the TEACHERS ranked the children within a school.
Isn't it only when a SCHOOL has over egged expected grades compared with their usual performance and the 'ability' of the cohort based on KS2 data, that results are downgraded?

doesn't and can't take into account the efforts and progress of individual students. Conversely some lazy students will benefit considerably from Ofqual's method

The one thing they said they wouldn't do is change the rank order provided by a school.

@TeenPlusTwenties And thats awful isn't it! Teachers are supposed to get the best out of individual student - that's the whole premise of education, students were never competing against one another for grades which is why teacher grades were requested. In one stroke that's exactly how Ofqual are deciding grades - its become a competition of ranking order without any of the students involved in the competition knowing they were in it.

Well no. If they just go with whatever teachers submit then Scotland has shown there would be massive grade inflation. So they have to have some statistical modelling in there too.
It's not going to be fair to everyone, but then the current system isn't fair to everyone either.

And to think we used to say that y6 SATS didn't matter!

I have a child who would have benefitted from this (high ks2 scores but coasted) and a child who would have been penalised (underperformed at ks2 but 7-9 as final grades last year) so deciding by algorithm is unfair. I suspect that when there is uproar they will point to the numbers who got better than expected.

I especially feel sorry for those who are around the pass mark as this could lead to having to retake or not being accepted to further training and courses.

I am concerned too. Dd has worked so consistently hard. Got 9s in English language and lit in mocks and targets. If she's narked down she'll be gutted.

My son didn't do well In the SATs I didn't encourage him to. Pointless exercise for a dyslexic child forced to do spelling tests everyday and getting 0. He was upset and I was upset. Weekly meeting with the headmaster. Ended up telling my son not to worry about them and I have no idea of his results because I didn't fucking care!

His mocks' results were atrocious and gave him the big shake up he needed. He studied for 3 hours every day, went to every after school and lunchtime additional studies. I took half term off and helped him study 5 hours a day. He had a maths tutor and an English tutor. He would have definitely got at least 4s maybe even 5s

But all that work and money for tutors will be a complete waste of time. Fuck knows what shit grades he's going to get!

I'm not a teacher but I know 99.9% are dedicated and sensible enough to not over egg students' grades. I thinks it's disgusting that teachers were not trusted to predict the results.

That would definitely benefited my son as they saw the hours he was putting in.

I feel sick about the results this month. This government has let a generation of schools kids down.

But I thought the SATs stuff is only being looked at on a cohort level not an individual level? That allows teachers to rank so individual pupils can do well (or badly) compared to their SATs, but the school can't suddenly decide all its pupils are going to get 7-9s when historically they usually get 3-6s and the cohort was no more able.

You can't 'just' use mocks as schools do mocks at different times in different ways and with different 'guidance' in advance. Especially something as subjective as English Lang/Lit. It's not the 8/9 border that matters, or even the 7/8. It is the 3/4 (fail/pass) and possible the 5/6/7 (being allowed to do A levels, or not)

With the greatest of respect though @boredboredboredboredbored - there are going to be no direct consequences to her if she doesn't achieve those grades. Her progression to the next stage of her education will happen whether she gets an 8 or a 9. It's absolutely crucial though whether you get a 3 or a 4 because there is a direct consequence and you'll have to retake.

@TeenPlusTwenties I have no idea how this magic grade is being worked out, does anyone!

I can just guess that my son is not going to do well out of it!

Such a mess eh?

Just to say that the exam boards have confirmed there will be an October exam series in both GCSE and A-level and the dates have been published.