GCSE and A level Government/Ofqual 'Sweetner'

[HappySonHappyMum]

Does anyone else feel that the government/Ofqual have released appeal info and results pattern information in advance of the actual results to try and offset the fury that thousands of teenagers and parents are likely to feel on results days when they realise their kids have been shortchanged? I felt really angry for the Scottish kids when I saw how the data supplied to the SQA had been used. I am feeling even more worried now than I did before. This whole year group are going to lose out and there's nothing these kids can do about it .

Although how the heck schools are going to manage to hold the exams and who is going to be willing to mark them, is rather up in the air.

I think the exam results are going to be fair in that there will be similar numbers getting each grade to a normal year. Obviously that doesn't mean every candidate will feel the outcome is fair in their individual case.

And teachers absolutely as a group would have tended to overstate grades - that's what invariably happens when a large group of people are somewhat overoptimistic.

schoolsweek.co.uk/autumn-2020-exam-dates-confirmed/amp/ sorry, A-level in Oct and GCSE in Nov.

Bluepolkadots42 - results only came out on Wednesday, but yes, there has been a huge outcry, from puplis, parents and teachers.

There were two protests today, organised by pupils, one in Glasgow, and one at the SQA head office in Dalkeith.

My ds early entry for English language.
If based on SATs only, he will not get grade he deserves.
Stupid question, but guess if he is unhappy he could take exam Autumn or summer?
My worry is the school likely not to support that and say he gets a 5 or 6, rather than the 7 or 8 predicted due to bloody effort put in, he should just 'stick'.
He is an outlier in his cohort which is in a disadvantaged area that has traditionally struggled with English..
Great...

Also, year 10s handed results when they go back in September by school, so long wait!
Ds more chilled about that than me...

Year 10s ranked with year 11s.
Year 11, pretty good cohort compared to other years. Sorry for the school's results, that will likely suffer due to area it is in. Pisses me off if nearby leafy schools more advantaged by this system...

[quote HappySonHappyMum]@TeenPlusTwenties And thats awful isn't it! Teachers are supposed to get the best out of individual student - that's the whole premise of education, students were never competing against one another for grades which is why teacher grades were requested. In one stroke that's exactly how Ofqual are deciding grades - its become a competition of ranking order without any of the students involved in the competition knowing they were in it.[/quote]
But the current bell curve system does that too. When I did my A levels, grades were set according to the % you got eg if yu got 70% you got an A.

Now it all depends how good everyone else is and they move the grade boundaries around. So in some ways it's no different and no less unfair, I don't like bell curves, either you are good enough for a certain grade or you're not. A previous employer of mine used it for appraisal ratings too, so if someone else got a high rating you couldn't and equally if they didn't have enough people at the lower end they might invent something to criticise you for so you got a low rating (and hence no pay rise).

It's completely rubbish.

When they talk about post codes being taken into account it’s because they are using a schools historical results in the statistical model.

Schools in less affluent areas would typically have lower levels of attainment than those in more affluent areas.

Using their model a student predicted 5As in a historically low attaining school would be very unlikely to have been awarded this. Where as a student at a historically high attaining school would be far more likely to be awarded what they were predicted.

Not a single piece of individual evidence for a students grades were submitted....

There is a lot of misinformation on this thread. This is partly caused by a TES story that was picked up by the press. Ofqual have responded to this and this has reassured me. KS2 results are not being used for individual students and nor are postcodes.

Students are ranked. They were given grades. If those pretty much match expectations of modellers they'll be left. If they seem too high ( or too low) based on the prior results of the school the subject, and the over all likely attainment of those students, some grades will have been adjusted. This might mean, for example, that a school awarded 126 grade 5s. 120 of those might be awarded. The biggest losers will be at the grade 4 boundary. It is obvious that this is where too many were awarded because teachers knew how life changing that grade is.

The good news is they are now allowing schools to appeal which is a very good thing for improving schools or where circumstances have struck part of whole cohorts ( e.g. a fire, a significant school death, a flood)

No cause for panic: yet.

@Piggywaspushed So what exactly are they using then? Are they looking at GCSE results to help grade A levels? Or are they literally using the ranking order that teachers have provided and the results that the school has previously achieved to decide the grades?

Yes, basically plus how far those grades match their own template for expected results.

I am dreading this. Have the exam boards considered the pupil's mental health? Pupils expecting good results based on mocks being given a statistically adjusted mark based on SATs in year 6?
I really wish I had boycotted the SATs now. My son did so-so, he was told not to worry about them by primary school as it was only to assess the school. He was going to get a lot of 9s, he did nothing but study for the last year. He wants to do into medicine or something similar that needs the very top grades. He won't be able to do that with 6s and 7s (what he was predicted based on his y6 SATs).
What is wrong with an education system and exam boards that think that what an 11year old daft silly immature boy gets in a relatively informal test will have any bearing on how they do in GCSEs 5-6 years later? It is totally ridiculous - SATs don't even mean anything for kids who are really good at science or humanities. It is really only English and Maths ( I know there was science, but my son was basically not taught any meaningful science at primary and still got an OK mark, so it is not science like GCSE science).
I am worried about a total mental breakdown on GCSE results day with a real danger to life.

Ahh @Piggywaspushed thanks for explaining that does make more sense. But as you said the biggest losers will be the 3 4 and 5 grades. Which sadly my son is one of!

Just need to keep my fingers and toes permanently crossed until the 20th!

Thanks for this information everyone.

@Piggywaspushed Is it correct that teacher predicted are not being used EXCEPT, where there are less than 15 candidates sitting a subject?

It sounds like it's a problem for children who are predicted very unexpected results for their cohort - very high achievers in a school that doesn't have many, or very low achievers in a private school that normally filters them out, children who are more than 2-3 grades above or below what is typical at their school. I could see predicted grade 9s being downgraded to 7s or even 2s upgraded to 4s, just because the algorithm says the teacher-predicted grades are so out of line. And those are the cases where you'd especially want the teacher grades to be used, because they are unusual situations. It gives really unreliable results to sixth forms or employers about a pupil's capabilities.

Ofqual distanced themselves from this yesterday : it would seem very odd. The rank order will still stand and , unless schools have done something really odd - lie awarding 30 or 40 more grade 9s than they have managed before, I am sure most grades will stand ; certainly they have always said it will be rare for the grades to be different by 2. To be honest, if they are, the school probably was doing something a bit odd: if that's because the cohort was really different then that's where appeals will come in, I guess.

Whether an individual child sat SATs or not, or how they scored, isn't going to impact their individual result, so that at least isn't something anyone has to regret their child having sat.

@HappySonHappyMum

With the greatest of respect though *@boredboredboredboredbored* - there are going to be no direct consequences to her if she doesn't achieve those grades. Her progression to the next stage of her education will happen whether she gets an 8 or a 9. It's absolutely crucial though whether you get a 3 or a 4 because there is a direct consequence and you'll have to retake.

Yes you may be right but Dd doesn't see it like that. She wants the grades she's worked very hard for and would've most likely have got, she feels cheated. Not the end of the world in the grand scheme of life but important to her non the less.

@boredboredboredboredbored Well lets hope she gets her 9 - she still might if the algorithm works for her. You'll have to let us know how the results have affected her grades when she receives them.

When I thought my DD’s grades would be based on teacher assessment, we felt reassured. They have been severe markers but this has only encouraged her and her classmates to work harder.

This lottery system of grade allocation is atrocious. I have another doing GCSEs whose mock results and predicted grades were fine but there’s clearly no guarantee she will even achieve them based on this system.
As if these kids haven’t been through enough this year...

• orOr are they literally using the ranking order that teachers have provided and the results that the school has previously achieved to decide the grades?

That seems to be the case, with a possibility of adjustment if the school cohort is clearly stronger - or weaker - than historically for that school, based on prior attainment

Of course it's not completely fair, but I think it's as fair as it can be in the circumstances.

Some losers will be those at the lower end of each grade as predicted by the teachers, because normally some of those ranked ahead of them would have messed up unexpectedly on the day.

They’re basically saying “over 3 years your school,has averaged 1 A and 3As in French, so the top kid in your ranking gets an A, the next 3 get As”. Even if this year the teachers thought they’d 2 kids worthy of an A* and the rest were B’s.

I’d like to know how they’ll handle it when there’s been a lot of variability across those 3 years.

I'm finding the fall out in Scotland very interesting - the protests and the apology from Nicola Sturgeon. It looks like there will be a 'fix' for Scottish students. Could this happen in England as well? Did I read right that University's have been told to hold places open for appeals which will be complete by the 7th September?

And what's worse is apparently it's £50 per resit.

So student gets all 4 in mocks.

Algorithms says 3's.

Pupil from disadvantaged background.

That's widening the gap in education.