GCSE summer 2020 thread 6 - Carry on Corona Cohort, Further adventures aboard the Corona Charabanc.

[FoolsAssassin]

The summer of discovidtent for the Corona Cohort trudging on towards results day.
Ofqual have done them a little video to explain their results:

Please feel free to join us to see what twists the next bit has in store for us all.

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Just caught a glimpse of this article published yesterday (behind paywall):

"Most A-level and GCSE results will be decided by computer modelling and not teachers in major U-turn"

Does anyone know anything more about this in detail ?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/25/a-level-gcse-results-will-decided-computer-modelling-not-teachers/

I didn't read the article ...but presumably they are talking about the statistical modelling being applied...which is not new news? CAG have always been a component of the final grade. If this is something different is there a better source?

I managed to read it somehow! It doesn't say anything new - just that the modelling will reduce a lot of the centre assessed grades.

It's amazing how many times the press can write the same thing under a slightly different headline!

Expect the same story will be recycled again and again before August. Then we will be treated with stories about how our children are not deserving of their grades.

Have you seen the Mr Bruff video @lillym50 know it's horrid awaiting results..I guess we just need to convince ourselves and kids that it is wasted energy worrying about outcome now. Best to wait and see what happens on results day with energy reserves if required

This is slightly obsessive but we’ve analysed last year’s school GCSE results breakdown and tried to work out where dd would be ranked in each subject and what she’d get if they were given the same spread of grades this year!

Obviously we don’t really know but dd has worked out a best and worst case scenario and I hope she’s mentally prepared for either!

It is so tempting to analyse isnt it? Must confess to doing that for DD beloved Music @crazycrofter. With the knowledge that she got full marks in her March mock written paper, a teacher assessment of grade 9 for her performance and 46% of the previous class getting above an A we are reasonably confident and have everything crossed. The trouble is her year is so large and we didnt get official results from March mocks ...we really don't have a clue. She is predicted at least an old grade B across the board, i've no doubt there will be good and bad surprises.
Disclaimer here...her school (state comp in naice area) have been doing extremely well with their results. It is possibly easier for me to say i'm not too worried. The only grade I am really worried about is Music ...it means so much to her ...as long as she gets a pass in everything else it will be a case of 'onwards and upwards' and trying to smash A levels.

It's definitely easier if the school is historically high performing. I do feel for children in small schools, or low performing ones, or even new schools which don't have any historic results.

I'm not particularly worried about dd's grades; whatever happens she should be able to move on to A Levels. Roll on 20th August though - it will be good to get it over with!

Thank you @OrangeCinnamon1 @crazycrofter, "major U-turn" is was got me but obviously nothing new. I'd like to say I am not counting the days but I am! My DD has every faith in her teachers but she also has high hopes so it's going to be a difficult day if expectations are not met. I just looked at Mr Bruff video, thank you for suggesting it @OrangeCinnamon1 , going to share it with DD also.

@crazycrofter - it's not obsessive, I've done the same for both DD and DS1

Both their schools publish full results so it's not hard to do. I've tried to work out where they rank and am hoping for something close to DD's mocks and DS1's predicted A Levels. I think people are finally getting their heads around the system that rank is more significant that CAG. Where they sit in the ranking of the cohort matters more than the CAG.

@sandybayley glad it’s not just me! In part I just wanted dd to understand the process and be prepared for the worst case scenario. It’s very tricky at her school to work out the rank order as it’s a highly selective school and they’re nearly all going to be getting 7s and above in all subjects with 60% of grades being 9s. I do wonder if that makes it harder for them to rank them?

Anyway, hopefully all our children will get roughly the grades they’d have expected if they’d done exams. I’m sure it will all seem irrelevant in a year’s time!

Yep, another one here who thought about trying to rank but in a 170 students cohort, DD has no idea where she falls other than in her own subject grouping, with multiple other groups in same subject.

She’s got a week’s online internship coming up in August that should break up the road to waiting which is good news in this house. And her sport returns today so another win...

I'm having days of slight obsessiveness too. Casually asking DD if she knows if she's near the top in her important subjects. Our problem is that this year is the brightest the school has had in a long time, so everyone was hoping for the best ever GCSE's. Seems unlikely now which just comes across as unfair.

Literally just had the 'damped down your expectations' chat with DD today. She had convinced herself that there is no way her grades could be lower than her mocks, which I'm just not sure of now.

I guess this is always a difficult time, if the exam went well then the fear is high grade boundaries, if it didn't then the hope would be low grade boundaries. It a tough system - I'm Canadian and come from a system that was '80% is an A' if you have a bright year then you get more A's, a less bright then less A's. Belling only done at Uni's mainly as a double check that nothing is crazy out of kilter (although I'm talking 40 years' ago!).

Same boat with our school Wheresthebeach, they have a lot who would have traditionally gone to the Grammar.

@FoolsAssassin and @Wheresthebeach if they’re state schools, hopefully they can use SATS results to support higher results than previously?

Dd genuinely doesn’t seem to know where she sits in terms of ability, except for in Spanish where she’s very definitely bottom! Last year there was one 7 in Spanish and the rest were 8 and 9s. But there is another Spanish class and she’s not sure if anyone in that class is below her!

Obviously, it really doesn’t matter if she gets 7s instead of 8s. But she particularly wanted an 8 in Spanish!

I’m sure it would have been more stressful if they’d taken exams anyway. And less predictable. At least in this scenario it feels like we can work out logically the worst case scenario.

Yes it is and they can. But at DS’s school some opted not to do the level 6 papers when would have possibly got a 6 in some so I don’t think it’s necessarily a true reflection. But do they count L6s anyway ? I guess if L5s up thatnwould show them ti a stronger cohort?

I could drive myself mad so try not to think about it too much.

@crazycrofter I think there is lots of evidence to support higher attainment but my concern is it just all goes into one big pot and gets spit out by a computer. No thought, just the macro approach which won't allow for nuance.

I hope that at DS' school the rankings were done by computer rather than by the teachers. They already knew which dc had firm offers at other schools and colleges so were 'safer' bets to give lower scores to iyswim and be asked to leave. I am trying not to believe that would be the case but...

Rather impressed by all those working out their DC's rankings for each subject. Can I ask how you're doing this? Are these all very small schools so your DC knows (or has a good idea) of the relative performance of every other student taking the subject? DS might have a clue in a subject like music (23 pupils taking it, he would rank lowest or second lowest :) ) but there are 360 students taking subjects like English, and DS would have no clue about anyone outside his class except for the odd one of his friends. Though I guess more schools set than don't (DS's school doesn't) which gives you some idea to start with (although presumably there is overlap between sets to contend with and some schools have multiple sets at the same level?)

I suppose it might be a bit like when they were in Year R - intensive questioning of child! Whilst trying NOT to resort going through other children's book bags ( yes a PTA Mum i know did this!).

I am joking, of course , but sometimes at parents evenings they do say things that might give clues - otherwise in such a big school and lots of non-streamed subjects ( including English) I have no idea.

I know where DD sits in the cohort because she reports back on exam results. It might be a girl thing as neither of my DS have shared the kind of information their sister does.

Haha, I wasn't one of those mums in reception! And to be honest, I've never cared about ranking - until now!

Dd is in a year group of 90 so it's a bit easier although in reality she doesn't really know where she is, except for in Spanish. However, I have to confess (and maybe I'm more like the PTA mum than I realise!) that at parents' evening teachers always have their mark book out so you can see (upside down) the scores of all the other girls. I do sometimes have a scan down just to check whether dd is getting similar marks to everyone else....

Dd has been counting up girls she knows struggle in Maths to see if she can reach the allocated number of 6s and below! This was to reassure herself that she'd get a 7.... I'm not sure it was especially reassuring as she didn't quite reach the number.

@FoolsAssassin I'm pretty sure they would just look at 5 and above as the high achievers, so if there's more of them they could justify more 7s and above. @ChristopherTracy I'm sure the task of ranking is already a nightmare to get right - I can't imagine any school then readjusting the rankings to ensure that certain children didn't get in to the sixth form? Quite apart from it being a very unethical thing to do! Do you have reason not to trust this school?

@sandybayley dd's school is highly selective but very anti-ranking etc, so they determinedly never give results out in public or rank students. There's no sets, no prefects, no speech night or annual prizes etc. So we don't have much of an idea really.

Whereas at ds' grammar school they're setted for almost every subject, we're given breakdowns for all exam results, what percentage of the year got each mark etc, so if it was him I'd have quite a good idea, despite it being a year group of 150.

@crazycrofter - from your description I can guess which school your DD is at. DD is at a school very local to yours which is also very selective. They do have sets for maths but don't publicise rankings. The girls know who has got what mark though as they talk and then they tell their mothers...

The only thing we as parents 'know' is when it comes to prize-giving.