Progress 8 score

[SmiledWithTheRisingSun]

Looking at secondary schools in an area we are thinking of moving to & I'm slightly baffled by progress 8 scores.

Would 0.09 be a good one?

The progress 8 calculation is really difficult to get head round but 0.09 works out at being very average.

Ignore it- see if you can get the old 5A*-C Inc English and maths scores as this is what your DC will still actually need. Schools which chase progress 8 scores are usually like the ones you read about on here with really restrictive GCSE options. Schools which acknowledge they have to have an eye on P8 but don't make it the only consideration are more likely to give your DC a good all round experience (possibly with a happier/more stable staff as well).

There's no substitute for making a visit, either. Schools with very average scores can be on the up or on the decline, it's hard to tell just from data and their website.

Put simply, above 0 means performing better than similar cohorts elsewhere, below zero means performing less well.

But also look at the confidence intervals.

Also you can, I believe, filter on prior performance. So if you have a high achieving child you can look at progress 8 for them, similar for middle or low attainer.

The 5A*-C is all very well but e.g. a comp in a deprived area with lots of low achievers is never going to score very well in that even if they have fantastic teaching.

I think there is also an 'attainment 8' score which could be helpful.

I wouldn't choose a 0.09 over a -0.09, but I might well choose a 0.4 over a -0.4.

"a comp in a deprived area with lots of low achievers" is unlikely to do well on Progress 8 either, as P8 depends on pupils getting GCSEs in core subjects (English, maths, science, history etc), which lower achievers can find challenging. P8 is also skewed significantly by outliers - so if you have 10 kids who don't turn up to sit their GCSEs at all it will drag the overall score down even if the other kids have done OK.

But it is still a fairer method than the old 5 A*-C.

As with stats in general you have to consider it with other measures.
A school with excellent attainment but poor progress 8, for example, could be one where bright DC are underachieving
A P8 score close to zero is really a neutral piece of information. You should compare it against other similar schools for context.

0.9 is really very good! And is not a “virtually neutral” score. Very few schools in the entire country got +1 or above. See list here www.compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk/schools-by-type?step=phase&geographic=all&region=0&phase=secondary

The highest progress eight score in my county was +0.7 putting it in to the “well above average” category.

oops 0.9 is very good. However the OP was asking about 0.09.

I think 0.09 would be very good. Suggests they don’t have many outliers bringing down the score. The school I work at in a ‘rough’ area has a much worse score, despite some kids doing really well.

The only issue is the research behind the progress 8 scores is really iffy.
I think I'd take it with a pinch of salt and look at range of subjects and results.

😳 whoops. My bad. I’m going to blame my dyslexia! 😂 oops indeed!!!

Always good to look at subjects offered and their results, agreed.

Thanks all your replies are helpful.
I was just a little baffled by the whole thing.
I guess it's always best to visit the school & see how you feel 🤷🏻‍♀️

Always best to visit! Open evenings will be happening now and Sept/early Oct.

We have two very good secondary schools in our small town. If you look at results one may appear slightly better, but the 'feel' and 'ethos' of the two are very different.

The problem with the old A*-C (9-4) indicators were that lots of the local so called highest achieving schools in my area just seemed to concentrate on getting as many as possible to a Grade 4 and children who were high ability on entry were not achieving the Grade 6-8's they should have been.

While we're here, does anyone know what happens to a score if you don't fill all the buckets?

So, for example, if my DD made expected progress in everything,(say 4s) but only filled 2 out of the 3 slots in the Ebacc bucket, how much of an impact would that have on her score and the school's (assuming for ease 250 in year group)?

And similarly which would give a 'better' score, 3xgrade3, or 2xgrade4+nothing?

If you don't have a suitable subject to fill a bucket, then it counts as a 0. So she'd have an attainment 8 score of 36, as opposed to the "expected" 40, and a Progress 8 of -0.4. Which divided over 250 means....I'll let you do the maths!

I didn't think Progress 8 scores really meant much at the individual level though? Clearly it's much better for her personally that your DD get 2 "passes" than O passes?

Teen If the bucket is empty, it scores 0, the total is still divided by 10.

3x3 would give a total of 9 which would be ‘better’ for progress 8 than 2 x 4, so schools are very reluctant to allow students to drop subjects, even if they are headed for a poor grade.

If a student scores a 1 in English lit, it will double their grade for English language, so that’s a valuable one to put students through.

BUT 2 x 4 would be more valuable to the school than 3 x 3 if the 2 x 4 were in maths and English, because that would count for the headline pass figure and would have more of an impact there.

I'm vaguely looking ahead for DD2, currently in y9.

Thanks. So they literally just add the grades with the double weighting for Maths & English, then work out what the 'should' have got from the KS2 SATs (which for DDs year were the first of the new ones)?

I am concerned about work load and revision load, and just wondering what would happen if she wanted/needed to drop Geography (which is the 'heaviest' of her option choices).

That would leave her with only the combined science in the EBacc bucket (because my understanding is full course RE doesn't count still?

Her 1 grade missing only makes up 1 in 2500 of the overall progress score, so 0.04% of the overall progress 8 score?

Hopefully that wouldn't be enough to make them not let her drop it, if it was going to be worthwhile for her other grades and general mental health.

Yep, add all the grades (inc double weighting) then divide by 10 to get an average grade, then subtract the average grade that pupils with the same KS2 profile got (unclear yet how this will work with new scaled scores). The result will be positive if she did better on average than pupils with the same KS2 score, negative if not.

Then they add all those grades for Y11 and divide by the number of pupils.

Thanks. I hope it won't come to that but it's nice to be prepared.
I'd rather she passed maths, English and 2xscience even if it means something has to go. (The science would be needed for what she might want to do next). This year's end y9 test results do not generally reflect the considerable revision effort she put in.

TeenTimesTwo
When a pupil wants to drop a subject part of the way through the GCSE course, the school has other concerns than the effect on Progress 8.

In the timetable slot when she would have been in Geography lessons:

What will she be learning?
Where will she be studying?
Who will be teaching/supervising her?

If it comes to the point of possibly dropping Geography, these are all factors the school will need to think about.

Some sweeping generalisations on here about P8. I teach in a school in a deprived area, 42% pupil premium, P8 of 0.4 and wide range of subject choices including 20% achieving Ebacc. Not all good P8 schools are exam factories!

OP I'd look for a school you like with a positive P8, if possible.

As others have said it’s a broadly average score. The context of the school affects that though. An all boys school in a predominantly white, working class area, with low levels of EAL and ethnic minority children and high levels of pupil premium in a seaside town is swimming against the tide and that P8 score would be quite good in that context. The school I work in is all girls, faith, with a very high proportion of immigrant and ethnic minority students, we have high numbers of pupil premium but hardly any white British working class and we’re in Greater London. Our headteacher (and the staff) would be devastated if our progress 8 score dropped to 0.09.

I won’t say our P8 score exactly as it would out me but it’s over +1.00. I wouldn’t say we’re an exam factory either. It’s a very close-knit, nurturing school.

TheFirst DD1 dropped a GCSE mid way through GCSE so although unusual I know the school can manage it if they are convinced of the benefit. But I do completely agree they wouldn't allow it without full consideration.

My understanding is that it’s a good measure for children who have potential to achieve more but were overlooked in the old system. Schools needed them to hit 5 A-C (in old money) and this didn’t give an incentive to get the children achieving at a higher level. Schools would tend to direct resources to get most pupils up to the 5 A-C grades, rather than push those who would likely get 5 A-C anyway to get 8 A-B grades.