Offer Day - for those on catchment borders/bulge class areas

[Crouchendmumoftwo]

I thought I would start a thread for parents specifically on the outside and edges of school catchments and in bulge classes as I think this is a specific issue for offer day.

I'm 0.5 away from my locals school and it didn't budge from 0.47 into September. I'm facing a very long wait into 2020 possible or attending a school very far away in an area we don't live in. Who knows!

Is this bulge year bigger than last years one? There is one next too - I think that one is slightly smaller.

I wondered how many other parents are in the same position? 2 years ago we would have got into our local school.

Hello

Is it too early for gin?

Ha ha! @BrimfulOfChocolate!

Last year we wouldn't have got into our first choice (despite being in a feeder school and in the designated priority catchment area). The year before, we'd have got in on 1st March. The year before that, we'd have got in off the waiting list in June.

All DS's friends live nearer than we do so I'm expecting them all to get in.

Cheers! I'm in for the long haul with this one. We'll be on the waiting list for months I think.

Yes I think we are all in for the long haul on this one.

... easier said than done eh!

Good to have somewhere to read and vent specifically for this issue.

There are usually articles in the nationals saying this year is a biggie and 99% of parents wont get their first choice etc. Very quiet this year...

Any idea if figures exist on numbers of candidates this year?
I am expecting 3rd choice and then sitting on waiting lists.

Don't think councils release that information at this stage - and in any case it would be numbers of applications rather than applicants as such.

In any case it's such raw data that it doesn't really tell you that much; there's a school near me that notionally had 2 applications for every place last year yet was still undersubscribed, because those were just people who put the school down somewhere on their form, not necessarily 1st/2nd preference, and so more than half of them took up places elsewhere.

I don't think the figures on top preferences ever get released publicly, though as someone has said on another thread apparently head teachers do get them.

What's quite interesting is when you have overall application numbers data for each school over a few years, as that gives you an idea of changes in popularity. Annoyingly my LA has only released that info for the last 2 years which isn't enough of a comparator to draw any useful conclusions

We're in a bulge area. There are a couple of new schools being built in our local authority, but neither close enough for us to realistically get a place.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if we get a place in a random neighbouring town that is totally impractical in terms of travel. And also undesirable as there are quite a few undersubscribed that I know wouldn't suit DD.

I'm fluctuating between 'it'll all be ok in the end' and quiet panic.

I feel for you! Thankfully we’re not waiting for an email this year but I remember how nailbiting it was. My DS got a local place on offer day but those on the other side of the road missed out. Our local authority publishes last place offered on distance (year on year) and also how many of each preference type were made. Furthermore, there is information on category of offers siblings, children in care, out of catchment etc. An adjacent local authority publishes similar information but only for the previous year. I think it’s obligatory but you may have to dig for it. There is also council analysis available of the expected need for school places by ward as it is not uniform across the borough. It is very hard to predict if you’re on the offer boundaries as it only takes a couple of families to throw out the usual distance. Good luck!

Well we're out of catchment and its a bulge year here. That said, he has a brother at the school which pulls him up a category (out of catchment w sibling). He'd have got in in previous years but the no of out of catchment children they take drops year on year, as does the last distance offered. To add another level of complication the school we want is in the next county (we live on the boundary). So if he doesnt get in he'll not only be at a different school to his db but have different holidays etc too

Wow, this is looming for us and I didn't realise they had to publish the info. I think reading it could make me panic more, and we don't even apply until next year. We have had to rule out private school so it's either cross fingers and hope for the best or bloody move!

In that case better to read it surely Fora ?Every year in our neighbourhood people always apply for King Xs school a couple of miles away but the truth is they havent taken an out of catchment child for 10 years (looked after/SEN w named statement children asides). The truth is, where we live, you have a realistic choice of up to 4 secondaries (catchment, Catholic, failing school to east, school just over county boundary). If you arent happy w that choice you need to move.

I've just tried to locate it but not having much luck. It's partially burying my head in the sand which is making me avoid it... I really don't want to move.

I know someone who lives on our road that has applied for the school we want this year. That will be an indication, at least.

What is a bulge year? Unusual amount of births?

@Foraminurwhere

Yes - high birth year have a Google.

This is for 2019 bulge year entries being announced at the end of this week which is a very different scenario when you havent applied to schools yet. You can do some research and make a decision, speak to your local borough about stats and look online at past years. Good luck.

We are about 1.8 mile away from our first choice but less than 0.5 out of catchment our neighbour didn't get in here last yr so not holding out much hope, our catchment is 1.2 miles in opposite direction and is 2nd choice, dd will be happy to get 2nd choice as this is where her friends are going, 1st choice is outstanding, 2nd is good. So mixed feelings here about what the outcome will bring!! I can remember when we applied for primary her year group was a high birth rate year and all schools were massively oversubscribed

Trying to make you feel better Crouch...
In the past people from my area would move to Crouch or Muswell Hill in year 4 or 5 to be near Fortismere and AP. I’ve not heard of anyone doing it for this year.

If you don’t get your preferred place, don’t think it’s all over on 1st March as waiting lists can be surpringly active. Make sure you’re on it by contacting the school directly.
There are bulge years to 2010 and it then starts to tail off.

I'm banking on that @Sarjest! Though the advice I've had is to email the LA admissions office to ensure DD remains on the lists for our preferred school(s) as it's the council who administer it, not the schools themselves (though it probably varies in different areas).

I've been waiting and waiting for Friday but not for the immediate outcome, rather because it's when the process will finally get going!

I'm 99.9% certain DD will be allocated our local, very good, secondary, but unfortunately she really doesn't want to go there. There's a very slim chance she may be given our 2nd choice but it's in another part of London and would be a long commute, about which I have major reservations.

We should get 1st choice eventually; we live outside the cut-off distance on offer day for every year for which I've seen data, but I know a number of people near me whose DC have got places there on the ever-moving waiting list. Am making a big effort not to go completely demented to keep a level head about all this but it's very hard!

It's definitely a bulge year here (West Midlands) in fact DD's secondary school headteacher said that this year there are more than 70 kids in catchment than there are places at the school and she is dreading dealing with the fallout. DD scraped a place from the waiting list last year, this year she wouldn't have stood a chance because whilst in catchment, she is probably the furthest from the school in her year. I think our LA published allocation data online on the day the offers went out but London Boroughs seem to be a law unto themselves (to me).

It was a nightmare last year - in retrospect I wish I'd treated it like childbirth, learn everything about the process but go into it with no preconceived ideas/expectations and deal with each problem as it arises. Oh and use the wonderful expertise on appeals etc. on here.

Unfortunately the waiting lists didnt move sufficiently enough for our neighbours to get into a school 0.5 away! Even in Jan/Feb 2019 it had not moved as lots of people moved into the area after March and they moved down on the list. Also lots of people rent to get into catchments her. There is a parent in my DDs son who is renting and other parents. I know of another too, its rife. It will be interesteing to see what the local councils do as there will be around 2 year 6 classes without school places according to the figures similar to you @waspnest.

We are not in catchment for the closest secondary school at all. The headmaster told us to move. This made DS decide against them.

How do you think you will tell your DS tomorrow, at the time you find out? Or leave it. If the news isn't so great - I guess you make out it is anyway - if it is good news that is ok. My DC is subdued. All his friends are going to another school and discussing it and wanting him to go so that must he hard for him. Let me know how you will break the news. Im feeling sick already.

Stupid question, but how do you know if it’s a bulge year in your area?

Says there are 4,000 more applications this year than last...

www.standard.co.uk/news/education/record-numbers-miss-out-on-first-choice-of-secondary-school-a4078981.html

OK, London parents (and apols to everyone else), lets's analyse that Standard article which is not very helpful. We need to hang on till 5.00 tomorrow after all:

A record 33,000 children will miss out on their first choice of secondary school in London
We all know from both experience and anecdote that plenty of London people often put completely fanciful schools first choice, with more realistic ones further down. No-one actually lives in catchment for 6 schools after all. So no matter How pie-in-the-sky the first choice, that will be counted in these stats.

It is predicted 34 per cent of all London children will start at secondary schools that are not their top preference.
By whom? That just means 34% won't be offered first choice in offer day. No account made for waiting list movement.

Out of the capital’s 32 boroughs, 16 are estimated to have received more applications than they have places
Plenty of London kids will take up places in Herts, Kent, Surrey etc, or just in other boroughs from the one they live in.

Secondary schools in London will have 96,000 applicants — 4,000 more than last year
This is the only bit that worries me, as Crouch says.

Deep breaths everyone. Nearly there. Good luck all you lucky buggers ones finding out at midnight!