New research: number to get straight 9s could be as low as 200

[noblegiraffe]

Unlike the previous prediction of 1-2 students getting straight 9s, this one is based on an analysis of 2016 exam data by Cambridge Assessment.
For students taking at least 8 subjects, they reckon between 200 and 900 will get straight 9s, out of about half a million students.
About 2000 got straight A*s in 2016.

www.tes.com/news/very-few-will-get-GCSE-clean-sweep

Seem clear to me.
Some pupils predicted all 9s will take it with a pinch of salt.

However some other pupils predicted all 9s will stress themselves out trying to achieve it and will feel a failure if they get an 8 for anything.
Teachers at some schools may also get told off for not predicting any 9s in a top set, but also if they predict 9s and then they aren't achieved.

No pupil needs all 9s (whereas some need 7s for A levels, or 4s or whatever for other courses). But stress can still be self induced or 'encouraged' by OTT targets.

Yes it really isn't difficult. They aren't all clones after all. So the suggestion seems to be that no top grades should be predicted even for those who are capable of top grades (assuming fair conditions on the day) in case some of those - almost certainly the minority, in the scheme of things - feel stressed by the perceived expectation.

While I agree an 8+ would suffice perfectly well, since we don't seem to have that practice at the moment, I think the solution lies in trying to understand and manage the stress of the minority rather than a dictat ordering wholesale dumbing down. After all, some may well gain confidence through a prediction of 9, and achieve where they might not otherwise have done, precisely because of that confidence.

I’m not sure I agree that schools should demand certain grades for A levels this year in quite the same way. If it’s not known if 56% in German is a 5, 6 or a 7, it doesn’t matter if the school offers A level places on the % achieved and the quality of work done by the student pre exam. As the grade boundaries may be different for each subject, then the grade requirements or percentage requirements can be tweaked accordingly. Surely schools can look at pupils results, previous work and, together with knowing the pupil, can make reasonable offers to students who wish to do A levels?

If a student was thought to be good enough and the teacher thought they would get a 7, but they only ended up with a 5, of course a school can still take them if they tweak their requirements. Flexibility is the key surely?

I think sixth forms might find that they need to be a bit flexible about required entry grades.

yy bubbles, sixth forms need to be flexible, but that works best if you already taught the student...

FWIW if we take the sample of the school I taught in plus the school DD goes to, approx 500 students, no one got three 9s, no one at all, never mind 9 x 9s! percentage wise I think there were about 12 grade 9s, out of a possible 1500 (only three subjects got a number of course) so that's a good deal less than 1% ... tiny sample, yes, but quite interesting.