New research: number to get straight 9s could be as low as 200

[noblegiraffe]

Unlike the previous prediction of 1-2 students getting straight 9s, this one is based on an analysis of 2016 exam data by Cambridge Assessment.
For students taking at least 8 subjects, they reckon between 200 and 900 will get straight 9s, out of about half a million students.
About 2000 got straight A*s in 2016.

www.tes.com/news/very-few-will-get-GCSE-clean-sweep

Most big graduate employers use online tests, which they consider far more reliable than public exams.

The number of straight 9s will be much lower this year than next year as many independent schools do a mixture of GCSE/IGCSE boards. Only half of my DS's GCSEs will be graded 1-9, the others being the old grading system not that he is necessarily a contender for a clean sweep anyway! In fact IIRC there is still the odd IGCSE subject being graded "old style" In 2019!

Maybe that's the difference user. You are talking about graduates which is 5 years after GCSEs and 2 education levels later. I am talking about pupils who may well do apprenticeships / BTECs then work, for whom 'strategizing' so they get the required GCSE passes may be very important.

Anyway we (well I) have wandered a long way from straight 9 pupils!.

I think there must be very few children who can simply say ‘I’m going to work hard and see where the chips fall.

Most need to know if they are likely to meet sixth form/college entry requirements so they can make plans, what courses they’re likely to be able to take etc. The schools write their timetables based around applications so DC can get their chosen combination of subjects.

Last year the take-up rate for maths A-level appears to have dropped. It’s likely that students sitting papers for the new GCSE thought that they were crap at maths and knocked it off their list of possible A-levels. Actually it turned out that only 50% was needed in the exam to qualify to do maths A-level in most places and if students had known that in advance they might have been more likely to consider it.

Is it a given that all higher ed courses will need Maths and English GCSE?
I ask as there are colleges (uni level) dd looking at that state how many GCSE's are required, but nowhere does it say including Maths and English, like other uni's I've seen.

I wholeheartedly agree that kids need to know where they stand and realistic targets.
I think the only ones who can say they are going to work hard and see what happens are the lower end of the grades, I find this acceptable if it stops them worrying, as they can only do their best.

It’s the system that creates/doesn’t create a culture of targets. There is no intrinsic need and targets have an awful lot of negative externalities.

What makes you think that the new GCSEs will be any different?

They probably won’t, as the target culture is so impossibly embedded in the system/mindset. But rejoice at this year when only syllabus and question type were available! So much healthier.

Kids still had targets and predictions they were just made up based on best-guesses. The whole thing has been appallingly stressful for staff and students and the idea that there should be rejoicing at this is ludicrous.

But why should it be stressful for either group noble? Surely it's been less stressful, not more? I don't feel any particular sense of stress from DD and none which was obvious from her teachers. Many seemed to positively enjoy teaching the new specs, or at least said they did. No long term sickness from staff at her school either this year, or last.

I do think it's important for schools NOT to be predicting all 9s.

I have some friends with children at a school who IS predicting their top set to get all 9s. I find it a dangerous strategy, as the children will feel they have failed if they get 8s!! Especially as they only have a years' data to go on.

My DD's school is taking a more conservative approach and predicting a max 8 grade. That doesn't mean they won't push the children who are capable, but they are saying to them that if they get a 9 is a bonus and they have done exceptionally well. We had all this explained a parents' evening.

But goodbye you’ve said your DD is cruising towards grades that will get her into pretty much any college and she would be eligible to take any A-level courses she chooses. Given that she’s decided not to worry about straight 9s, what else does she have to worry about?

Other children are not so fortunate and the direction their lives will take will depend on borderline grades falling in their favour in August.

That’s exactly what’s happened with Dd & science bible. Was really interested in taking biology A level but following some very low mock exam/sample paper scores she’s decided she’s rubbish at sciences& is going to take essay subjects instead.

I doubt if many year 11 teachers were rejoicing this year User. "Miss I got 56% in my German mock, what grade is that?" Me: "i honestly do not know. My best guess is 5-7"

You may say we shouldn't be obsessed with targets but if you are thinking of German a level, 5 or 7 makes a big difference.

Yy to teen as well; my dd last year wanted to focus on English, she was happy her maths was good enough so she could. She ended up with 996 which was fine; but she got the 9s cos she knew she could afford to. If no one could/would tell her she was an easy 6-7-8 in maths she would have had to spend more time on that as she needed a 5. For her, not intending to go on with maths, time spent gaining a 7-8 would have been wasted as I imagine her valuable (to her) English grade would have fallen.

Just throwing my 2 cents in, DC just finished GCSE state school exams (hoping for at least 5, 6's and some 7's), never got the feeling from school of much stress or anxiety. One teacher cocked up a subject and they had to put in extra resources to get course completed but everything else seemed smooth.
The UK seems to have a weird perspective, they focus on the students worst subjects. Why is that? is seems self defeating, doesn't a student switch off always practising their worse most hated stuff. I am used to focusing on the strongest subjects, success breeds success and seems to produce better results in every subject.
Its also weird about these mark schemes, why are they even a thing. Learn the subject FFS, if all you do is learn scripted answers then you will have grades above your actual ability.

I have found the 9-1 system quite easy to understand. The focus on grade boundaries seems mental, why are they even public. You get a result, teacher can appeal but teaching to the test does not produce knowledgeable pupils.

My DC might or might not get grades but we will worry that when it happens, why stress children before it actually happens.

noble I can't quite get my head around that sort of statement about stress. There's no reason at all why DD4 shouldn't feel the same stress as others in the category. She's exactly the category where so many people are saying the stress must be unimaginable and that it's unforgivable etc. Now you say she's all right Jack but it's stressful for everyone except DD4, for some unaccountable reason. It's just everybody else in that category who is a victim of top predictions for these exams. But not DD4. In fact I dare say a fair few of these bright DC are bright enough to work out that luck on the day plays such a big part in performance that actually, no point stressing even if MN gurus insist they should.

No, goodbye I’ve said that because she (and you) have decided that you are not fussed about meeting target grades then naturally she is not as stressed as a student who is very concerned about meeting them.

Although I concede that she is fortunate objectively, in that fate has thrown her a good card on the academic ability front. But there's more to life and fortune than academic ability of course.

noble of course she'd like all 9s. Why would a DC predicted 9s not want 9s . She's just realistic, in great part because of all the very widespread comment about how only a tiny number of DC will get all 9s. Much worse to be predicted all A (as a number of my older DC were) when you know a couple of thousand pupils will get straight A. That sounds a lot (in fact it isn't, but it's 10 times more than the numbers predicted to get all 9s).

Liking all 9s is very different to needing all 9s or being desperate to get all 9s.

The group I taught last year very much needed their grades. It was the difference between getting onto the college course of their choice and being stuck resitting for a year. That’s an external pressure.

Other students are incredibly scared of failure and get themselves into an awful state.

Still others take on too much and can’t be persuaded to let anything go even when completely overwhelmed until they collapse.

noble you're tying yourself in knots. Not a single student in the entire country needs all 9s. Give me an instance of a need for all 9s! Even the most academically snooty of Oxbridge or Ivy League colleges on the most competitive courses won't be insisting on all 9s and I'm struggling to think of any other need - as opposed to want - for all 9s. Completely batshit parents I suppose might be one possible need, if they've told the DC they won't be able to bear anything less than all 9s, but I'd suggest there might be better ways to deal with that type of batshit than trying to satisfy some crazed competitive urge on the part of people with a duty of care who should know better. Absolutely no DC needs all 9s. Hence the bonus idea.

Ah someone we know is in Cardiff tomorrow to help sort this lot out for the AS papers. It is a challenge this year.

Children might want or even need high grades but if they are working at a level 6 and for whatever reason in the exam, they get lucky and get a 7/8+ (maybe a mark scheme question came up) then they move forward in life without the knowledge of their subject to perform at the level their grade level indicates.

Surly its not in children's interests to get lucky in an exam, its setting them up for failure.

No, your DD doesn’t need all 9s. The comparison was with students who do need their target grades, e.g. for college. We are talking about whether students should be throwing their hats in the air with delight about the new GCSEs not having past papers, any idea of grade boundaries and the like.

Ok so your reasoning now noble is that those DC predicted all 9s (the subject of the thread) are not under stress because they don't need the grades they just want them. I'd thought you'd previously said those DC were under enormous stress - apologies.