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Secondary education

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Original poster

Y10 child predicted mostly grade 9s for gcse

83 replies

kitnkaboodle · 21/05/2017 09:48

This can't be right - in either sense of the word, can it?? A friend was told this at a recent parent's evening at an average school. The child is bright and v. studious/conscientious, so all power to him, but .... can this be right? Doing about ten subjects and level 9 predicted in all but two

OP posts:
MirandaWest · 21/05/2017 10:23

I think some children will get all 9s.

I think predicting they will, when no exams have yet happened with numerical grades and most subjects won't start that until next year is not likely to be very accurate.

BeyondThePage · 21/05/2017 10:24

They predict 9s because the kids they are predicting 9s for are the top achievers by far at the school (or group of schools in our case).

(the benchmark for the super-selective grammar 6th forms here is for predicted grades being 8 or above in 8 subjects)

JellyBabiesSaveLives · 21/05/2017 10:25

My yr10 child has targets of 9. Based off year6 sats and progress since. Frankly if she gets 7s and 8s I'll be very happy.

No one knows where the grade boundaries will be but about 3.7% will get a 9 as opposed to 9% getting A* last year. Or 8% getting an A in 1988 Grin.

And that's 3.7% of those taking the GCSE, not 3.7% of the school year. Prob more kids in private schools are going to get those 9s?

Anyhow, I'm thinking a 7 is an A, and an 8 is an A*. Pretty much. If she gets even one 9 I'll be very impressed with her!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 21/05/2017 10:29

Nobody knows what a 9 will look like and I don't think it's fair to predict that students will get a 9. However, what is likely to be happening is that each invidivdual subject teacher will be looking at them and thinking 'this is the best student in my class, so I predict they will get a 9'. Take a very bright child who is very good across many subjects and you get a ridiculous cumulative effect of all level 9s predicted.

Original poster
kitnkaboodle · 21/05/2017 10:36

Kitten - yes, I think what I meant was that it was unfair on the boy to predict such an amazing outcome when there is no precedent. I'm aware I'm coming across as mean and jealous instead!!

OP posts:
Theimpossiblegirl · 21/05/2017 10:42

Dd has similar predictions in year 9. State school, 3 year gcses. I've told her I'm very proud but that it's a new system so may not yet be accurate. She is brilliantly clever and very hardworking, but we don't make her do more than she chooses to do.
If anything, we make her do other stuff, we want her to enjoy her teens.

Theimpossiblegirl · 21/05/2017 10:43

Disclaimer- not too much though! :)

Hulababy · 21/05/2017 10:49

Most schools wouldn't predict all 9s, which is a higher grade than the current A * as these are brand new exams and no one really knows yet what a 9 even entails.

It could be setting up the poor child to feel Like they've failed come next summer.

Predicting all A was different as t*hat grade was a known quantity. The 9 isn't.

noblegiraffe · 21/05/2017 10:51

Giving kids who got a level 6 in their SATs a target of a 9 is bonkers. About 10% of kids get a level 6 in their maths SATs (this could be higher but some schools don't enter kids for the level 6 papers). Ofqual's latest figures estimate that 3% of kids will get a grade 9 in maths this summer.

I'm not sure what percentage get level 6 in English, I think it's much lower than maths, but only about 2% of kids will get a grade 9 in GCSE English.

PaleAzureofSummer · 21/05/2017 10:53

I don't think people will just assume their child will achieve their targets unless they are taking no notice of the grades they get in termly exams.

Lancelottie · 21/05/2017 10:57

Maths is the one GCSE where I think a teacher could confidently predict a 9 for the odd child -- the sort who, like a good friend of mine at school, could get 100% in any maths paper you threw at her and was doing university-level work from about 14. (We took the piss mercilessly on the one occasion she missed a mark).

But 9 for the lot? I'd give much for their crystal ball.

AWafferthinmint · 21/05/2017 10:57

I was told at an exam board meeting that, realistically, we wouldn't see more than 4 or 5 grade 9s in our whole teaching career.

noblegiraffe · 21/05/2017 11:00

Waffer Do you mean 4 or 5 kids getting a grade 9 in your subject in your career? Or we wouldn't see a kid getting more than 4 or 5 grade 9s?

Although how long is a teaching career these days? About 2 years I think.

happyhebe · 21/05/2017 11:03

We've had a prediction of grade 9s here but I've played it down as I think it's perhaps inaccurate but, more importantly, it's putting too much pressure on the students. Mine are told that they will get whatever grades they get and if they have done their best then that's fine whatever the grade.

Goldrill · 21/05/2017 11:04

When scores need to be as high as they are likely to be to get a 9, there is also a bigger impact of chance/luck.

I was always been the kid who got full grade As for everything with minimal effort. I am now finishing training to be a science teacher. My subject knowledge is pretty good for GCSE. My understanding of how to answer exam questions is also pretty good.

But if you sat me or most of the teachers I know, down with 20 science papers we would NOT all get 100% across the board. There will always be a phrase, an emphasis you miss, or just a simple error somewhere. If this is true for us, then the most able student WILL be a couple of steps down - and that means a few marks down.

How many marks down do you have to be to drop from a 9 to an 8? We don't know, but it looks like not very many.

It is unfair to predict 9s across the board when the reality is that if you get all 8s you are an absolute star. If you get all 9s then you are certainly a star, but there will have been an element of chance involved.

goodbyestranger · 21/05/2017 11:05

Same as jamrock. My DD is Y10 and predicted almost all 9s across ten subjects (there's a rogue 8 in there too). These are her projected grades, not target grades which are listed separately. Her parents' meeting was on Thursday and although her teachers are giving the usual caveats about the new exams they seem pretty comfortable with their projections given her current performance. I'd say she's likely to be in the top 2% and she's a very strong all rounder. That's probably what the kid in the OP is. Someone's going to hit plenty of 9s, so why not those with those predictions? Confused.

noblegiraffe · 21/05/2017 11:11

Maths is the one GCSE where I think a teacher could confidently predict a 9 for the odd child

We've got a student who sat their maths GCSE years ago who will be sitting the new GCSE as well because we need them to for the league tables. They'll get a 9, no worries.
I wonder how many kids there are across the country like them who'll be entered to get their 9, and how many 9s they'll snaffle from the kids who are sitting it first time around.

goodbyestranger · 21/05/2017 11:24

Don't enter him then, simples.

noblegiraffe · 21/05/2017 11:26

If they don't enter, then they count as a fail for the school league tables. Simples.

RedHelenB · 21/05/2017 11:32

But that child could still make errors. I think in maths it will be down to who doesn't make errors on all three papers. My dd always comes out of maths exams knowing what mark she has got & where she made the mistakes! She would have been one predicted a 9 btw.

noblegiraffe · 21/05/2017 11:39

If a student who got an A* in maths years ago who has been studying higher level maths since doesn't get a 9, then that suggests that the system is flawed. If 9s don't distinguish between the good and the great but merely the unlucky and lucky great then they'd need to go back to the drawing board.

It will be interesting to see where the grade boundary falls for this reason.

Squishedstrawberry4 · 21/05/2017 11:45

An A is not the equivalent of a level 9. Level 9 is a 'super grade' and more like a A*. So it really is the top of the top.

I read that in maths presently 5% get get A* gcse, while only 3% will get a level 9 gcse.

Squishedstrawberry4 · 21/05/2017 11:50

I think it's quite normal students to have the bulk of their grades around one or two levels

goodbyestranger · 21/05/2017 11:52

Oh I thought you meant a vanity entry noble ie playing the league tables as opposed to it being an imperative. Oh well, I don't see it being an issue. If he's in the correct year group it's not a big deal. He's entitled to a 9, he's not taking it away from another DC. I thought you meant a Y12 or 13 :)

goodbyestranger · 21/05/2017 11:54

Some schools have finished the syllabus for maths already in Y10. Ours has and DD's set is doing some other maths at the moment and then they'll revert to practice questions sometime next year.