Lvl 5 prediction for maths gcse.

[WhoTheFuckIsSimon]

Dd is in year 10 and says she's been given a flight path predicting this.

She's upset as she sees it as a middle grade. Google suggests it's equivalent to the bottom of an old B/top of C.

Which sounds about right, her teacher last year said if she worked hard she should get a B.

I suppose 5 when there's 4 grades better than a 5 doesn't sound as good as a B. I do feel a bit sorry for her.

Maybe worth reminding her that a 9 is the top of old A* and A. There is a thread further down that shows new structure though not with A^ that you show her to illustrate this.

Sorry meant to say top of old A* and A^ MN keep stealing my hats.

Thanks. I hadn't seen that thread but have just showed the table on it to dd and she's feeling better.

I do feel sorry for the year 10s, been the guinea pigs for this.

Though as ive pointed out to dd they will all be in the same boat so it shouldn't make any difference to uni acceptance, etc. if the exam is marked harder, then they will all be marked harder.

Dd reckons she wants to do architecture so needs to do ok in maths which sadly is probably her weakest subject.

I get that.

My concern is that this first year they might Mark it more harshly than normal/exam might be tougher because the govt have brought it in to respond to criticism that GCSEs are too easy. So politically it will need to be seen that with the new grades they're not too easy? Especially this first year when everyone will want to see the difference.

So how the league table will look like in two years time?

Some kids will struggle to get a 3.

Roughly 65% of students will get a 4 or above, and about 15% of students will get a 7 or above. I think 9s will be awarded to the top 3%.

Given the difficulty of the maths sample assessment materials I've seen, the grade boundaries for getting a 4 will be on the floor, and you will probably only need to write your name to get a 1 or 2.

Looking forward to finding out ds's predicted grade for maths and English - probably at January parents' evening.

I think he ended year 9 a weak level 8 (old nc) in maths and a solid level 8 in English.

I think his predicted grades might be grade 8 for both? But my intuition says a 7 for maths and a (hopeful!) 8/9 for English is more likely!!

A kid on a level 8 in Y9 should be getting an A*, so a 7 would be under-predicting.

I doubt anyone would risk predicting a 9 this early on! Who knows how good you have to be to be in the top 3% nationally!

Thanks - yes, the 7 and 9 are my thoughts (I know he's good at maths but underperforms in exams. In English, he seems to excel in exam scenarios.

I think school will target him or predict grade 8 for both?

Who knows? I doubt we'll find out yet.

Will be interesting to know how schools are going to mark work for year tens over the next few months - all of his English essays so far are being marked with (old) GCSE letters (A so far) but maths just marked right or wrong! (independent school).

I doubt anyone would risk predicting a 9 this early on!

DD is in yr9 & has already had a 9 predicted in science. I'm not chuffed, lotta pressure. I'll come back & let you know if she gets a predicted math grade.

I'm wondering how correct the predictions will be. DD has been predicted an 8 in maths, which seems high to me. She's in the top set (but at bottom) so this could indicate that 25% are predicted to get an 8 or above,

Ds's school (non-selective) typically got 45-50% A-A* in maths so I imagine they will hope that at least the whole top set get 8 or above in future?

Lljkk - I'm surprised by predictions for subjects other than maths and English already - are all the sample papers approved and available for science already?

I know that, Tiggy, I just queried whether the sample papers were available yet to be able to predict science grades - I know the English and maths ones came out v late last year.

Wrt ds's school, most of middle set would have got an A in old money, and top set an A* that's why I thought top set would be aiming for an 8?

RalphSteadmansEye - level 8 in English in old money at the end of year 9? Don't think so, there is/was no level 8 in English, anything above a 7a was classed as EP "Exceptional Performance" only.