I am sure that UL will give the school a chance and will say they are committed for the long term. However, what does that really mean?
As I understand it, all UL schools have to give money each year to UL so they have the funds to buy or save more schools (that is where the money comes from to save Dunottar). No UL schools are supported if they are making a loss. That means Dunottar will need to make a profit / surplus to fund other schools in future.
How long will UL give DUnottar? Does that mean that the school needs to get up to 220 or 240 or whatever the numbers are that will not just allow it to break even but to actually contribute back to the UL group.
What guaranees will UL give that if the school has not reached, say, 220 within 4 years that they wont say that they will need to pull the plug.
I do not understand how UL could survive if they let schools carry on if they are making a loss. It seems reasonable that the school will need to hit the financial targets.
I think that the current year 7 and 8 have about 35 students between them and there are twenty something in the year 9 group. The new year 7 will probably be about 20 again, lets say 25? That means in two years time there will be approx 85 in the then years 8 - 11 plus another, say, 35 in years 12 and 13 (although that will only happen if Dunotar manages to recruit quite a few more into the 6th form compared to the past). That will mean that the year 7 in two years time would need to be approx 80 pupils in total just to get to 200 and 100 if 220 is needed to mean they can give money back to UL?
Please would DV ask about this as it really looks a high ask. Are they really prepared to run the school at a loss? That would make Dunottar the only school in the UL group that they are prepared to run at a loss - so why would they? They have taken on other schools and either sold the land merging schools or have turned them into academies if numbers have not rapidly increased. That seems a much more likely outcome? I wont believe UL will guarantee underwriting 5 years of making a loss (never mind 10) as an independent fee paying school (rather tan as an academy) unless I see it in writing.
Could DV ask for that to be clarified?