Chippy I have seen you over on the New Schools for Richmond thread and there has been endless debate about schools place forecasting over there. It is very complex with lots of variable but not as the Richmond Head of Education maintains an art not a science!! Your LA will have overall forecasts but it can be political, many parents in Richmond do not believe the Council's forecasts stand up to close inspection of the assumptions ( which in any case have been undermined by subsequent developments). So you might want to look deeper into the data. IME also if you ring the LA education department the staff at the frontline will give you what they believe is the best advice regardless of the political influences. I will list the variables and how you might research them for your area. I am afraid I haven't time to give you links but you will find them on the other thread or you can do abit of googling.
1 Birth rate This is available from the census and if you are a London Borough the London government sources. Certainly steadily rising in Richmond and neighbouring boroughs but biggest bulge coming through 2014/15
2 Cohort size You can find out the Year 6 cohort size by Borough from the Department Of Education. Also steadily rising in Richmond but also see below
3 Percentage already private or likely to go private, or return to state schools at 11. You local borough should have published information on this.
4 Immigration into and out of the borough/area. This is difficult to assess other than through looking at the data to see if it backs up anecdote. For instance census data backs up what most of us know already, people move to West London with their toddlers for the open space and good schools but then some move out when they come up against the historic lack of good state secondary schools in some areas (or go private ).
5 Numbers of pupils migrating to neighbouring boroughs or into your borough for their schooling. Also available from your LA. This is affected by the standard of schools but also whether neighbouring boroughs have sufficient places. As you are in a neighbouring borough to Richmond there is extra uncertainty this year because admission arrangements have changed so that it is purely on distance. You are already aware of the uncertainty about St Richard Reynolds, if it goes ahead Catholic posters have conceded on the other thread that until it becomes established most Catholic parents in Richmond will stay with trying to persue the existing routes to places at established schools, it is therefore assumed it will mainly attract people in from Sunbury where Catholic parents may be dissatisfied with the local option?
- Economic situation. This has resulted in an increase in parents opting for state over private at primary level and Surrey are predicting that this will feed through to secondary. Again your LA should be commenting on trends in reports to Council Committees, Admissions Forums etc.
- Ofsted ratings of local schools. Good ofsted ratings increase the cohort and attract people away from the private sector.
I hope this helps. For what it is worth to my knowledge both Kingston and Hownslow have rising pupil numbers and a projected shortage of places, though to what extent this will affect the coming year is debatable.