Is the 2013 secondary school/current Yr 6 cohort small, compared to recent years?

[ChippyMinton]

I've heard from a number of sources that the current Year 6 should have a relatively easy ride with secondary school allocations, as it has fewer children than in recent or upcoming years, so less pressure on places.

Anyone heard this or can confirm it?

The D of E do publish figures by borough Table 9a www.education.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s001012/index.shtml

The above figures I posted for Richmond came from that table and corresponding figure for London and the boroughs bordering Richmond are as follows

Year of entry 2011, 2012,2013,2014

London 79110,78770,79490,83715
Inner 27760,27790,28310,29925
Outer 51350,50975,51180, 53790
Wandsworth 2035, 2085, 2160, 2255
Kingston 1465, 1480, 1455, 1540
Hounslow 2310,2330, 2365, 2445

All the factors I listed in my last post will impact on these figures in terms of who actually applies to schools in your area. These figures were compiled in 2010 so some of the factors I listed will have had an impact over the last two years as well in determining decisions parents make this year.

Apart from Richmond and Kingston the increase in pupil numbers is steady across London. There is a slight dip in both boroughs but I would be very careful about assuming things are going to be easier there, it will only take a few people to decide not to go private for there to be an increase, there is also a shortage of school places in North Kingston, and it is uncertain how the new admissions arrangements in Richmond will affect the Kingston parents applying to Richmond Schools as a result. The Richmond Schools with spare capacity are not near the Kingston border.

grr sorry about my inconsistent bolds!!

Copthall, and others, thanks, will check out the links and have a proper read later. You really know your stuff.

It's all a lottery really, I'm interested to know what the odds might be!

I have boys in Yr6 and Yr5 and DD in Yr4, so thinking about siblings, it looks like I should aim for a mixed school to avoid future angst.

I think as others have said, it's a low birthrate year nationally. We live in an area where there was a bizzare increase though. Primary school applications were a nightmare for my son. And then for the year after (current year 5) it all seemed to have evened out again.

So I guess you never can tell...

Copthallresident - No they don't! Table 9 is by age, not by academic year. And those are 2011 figures. For the 2012 census (which you can find here) they don't even give a breakdown by age.

Sorry - I've just noticed that the DfE used the age as at 31st August 2010 so Copthallresident's figures are close to being correct by academic year, although they won't take account of any children who are in the "wrong" year for their age. However, the DfE has not published LA figures either by age or by academic year for the 2012 census which is where I got my figures.

They are the figures provided by the LAs for the number of pupils in state primary schools by age as at 31 August 2010. Since the cut off for year groups is 31 August (with a very few exceptions) then these are the cohorts that will hit secondary schools in subsequent years. I qualified the figures by saying that to determine the final actual figure you would have to look at all the factors that I highlighted in my original post, and since the figures were from 2010, some e.g overall immigration/emmigration would have been affecting the numbers for two years. However they are an indication of the situation in each borough. They will also help you reconcile and make head and tail out of your local Councils forecasts, something we have done in our borough because there is a big issue around their forecasts and the provision of school places.

Sorry prh47bridge cross posted!

It is here, 230 less pupils in our area to go up this year, and its a small area!

I should add that for the following year, there are currently not enough places for the predicted number of children?!

I think that people being aware that it's a low birth year isn't actually A Good Thing sometimes!

My two children are lucky enough to have places at an outstanding state school which is out of catchment. Historically, only the occasional pupil every few years secures a place from where we live. There was a 'blip' in numbers locally when we applied for DS, currently in Y8. We didn't think we had a hope of getting in and opening the email on allocation day 2 years ago was a complete surprise/shock as we had secured a place, so had all the peers who had applied from our primary.

This year, the school (clearly aware of the three year national dip in birth rates as described in this thread) made a really big deal of trying to attract out of catchment pupils. The thing was, I honestly don't think the Head had any idea how many people would apply. Or, to put it another way, how many parents do NOT apply annually, thinking they don't have a hope in hell of getting in.

So this year they had vast, vast oversubscription and a lot of disgruntled parents who had their hopes raised. For my son, I didn't have my hopes held high so having him get in was amazing. This year, people felt cheated.

So, as others have stated, people being aware it's a low birth year can sometimes be detrimental.