Will Reform win SNP seats in May elections ?

[52andblue]

And, if they won enough to form a coalition or even won outright, what then for devolved Scottish policies, like Benefits or education?

I imagine that Reform policies on eg benefits are as far away from current SNP ones as possible. Could they make sweeping changes quickly if they wished?

I’m not sure. On paper reform and SNP have totally different policies and ought to attract different voters, but in practice these are the parties that have simplistic policies that ultimately are unworkable that are designed to appeal to those who don’t look too closely at the possibilities of implementation. Populist policies that appeal to the same sort of person. So I can see SNP voters swapping to Reform.

We’re all heartily sick of this failing government.

Possibly, but they are still trying to work out what a council has to do by law. I’ve heard some absolute belters.

I have no doubt Reform will be a disaster. But the SNP are also a disaster. I wouldn’t vote for them myself but a Reform government or a SNP government are both equally bad.

@Cucumberino Yes, I agree. Fixed 'idealistic' ideas (although some of SNP's I agree with in principle, none of Reforms) but no idea how to implement. Ends up being an expensive mess for citizens & parties will not row back even in Court.

@whereisitnow Yes. I have lived in Scotland for 35 years now (more than half my life) but I grew up in Kent. I still have a few friends down there who tell me what an utter shambles Reform are making of Council 'leadership'. Regardless of policies, it seems they cannot run a drinking session in a proverbial brewery.

My position is that I am a Carer to two young adults who recieve PIP & are likely to either never work or only p/t. They will need all the Govt help they can get. The idea of Reform getting in terrifies me, yet we cannot access the health care that one of them needs (can't afford to move to central belt & over the border to Northumberland means our benefits would stop after 12 weeks (now devolved).
It's really difficult trying to work out what to do & I was wondering if Reform were the biggest party in May whether they could actually change the current Scottish position on benefits & many other matters. I think they will 'take a chainsaw' to it all, Trump style, if they possibly can.

In our local council by-election, Reform came second to the SNP. During their campaign, they claimed that only they could defeat the SNP. This is only a snapshot, but I don't see Reform winning.

Link to results below. There was an exceptionally poor turnout.

www.fife.gov.uk/news/2026/ward-13-glenrothes-west-and-kinglassie-by-election,-22-january-2026-results

@WearyAuldWumman thanks, that is interesting. 22% turnout - that's low. I guess lots of voters are feeling weary of the current choices too.

Came across this

The thing is the welfare bill is running completely out of control and is totally unsustainable. Someone needs to address it at some point because otherwise the country (UK or Scotland) will collapse.

They will definitely make huge headway. There are lots of people out there who vote based on gut instinct and don't consider every policy. Not everyone is going to sit down and read even one manifesto.

There is also very dangerous rhetoric from the SNP that Scottish people are "better than that" and they won't even countenance Reform. This is plainly bollocks, there are as many saltires flying in protest against immigrants in parts of Glasgow as there are union flags in London towns and cities.

Local council by-election near me - Lib Dem, then SNP, then Reform. And this is leafy Bearsden, not the areas traditionally being targetted by Farage.

https://www.eastdunbarton.gov.uk/services/a-z-of-services/elections-voting/election-results/by-election-ward-3-bearsden-south-january-2026-results/

They won't take power - too many people are still prepared to vote for the sinking SNP ship simply because it has a saltire flying at the top of the mast, but I think their share of the votes will certainly increase.

They are more pro-oil and so there might be more jobs for workers in Aberdeen.
They are pro- woman's rights and so the trans activists would have less power within Scottish politics.
Apart from those national policies I have no idea how competent or not they might be.

The benefit of Reform taking seats off the SNP would be less power for the SNP to get anything through parliament. Right now the idea of a hung Scottish Parliament unable to make any decisions is very appealing- everything they've tried to do lately has been rubbish.

What’s wrong with banning greyhound racing,unproscribing Palestine action, banning the theft of dogs (again), fighting for men to remain in women’s prisons and ensuring men can still buy prostitutes? I can’t believe you’re saying these things are rubbish!

Not a hope of them addressing:

Lack of jobs and housing in rural communities
Continued failure to attract growth and investment from private sector companies
Soaring violence and disruption in schools.
Soaring benefits bill.
Soaring drug deaths.
Endless money ploughed into the NHS with no improvement in the service.
Ferries.
A9.
Womens rights being compromised by the GRA.
Alex Salmond freedom of information cover up.
QE hospital cover up.
Rising immigration / homelessness issues in Glasgow.

I could go on and on and on.

Why don’t they do something meaningful for once and actually try to solve local issues? Isn’t that what devolution was for?

They might have to team up with the ridiculous Greens again and it will be 5 years of achieving nothing, just pissing about trying to move as much public money as possible to antisemetic hate groups in Palestine and trans people’s charities (no matter how dodgy they look).

I think they’ll win some seats.
Reform won the council seat in a West Lothian by-election recently.
The SNP tries to say Scotland is “better” than that but the truth is that Reform is offering something that people are looking for. The main parties are not listening to the population and are too fond of telling people what they should think.
OP who knows what will happen but there are many people in Scotland who feel the soaring benefits bill is unsustainable.

They might do well in Aberdeen?

Aberdeen the real cost of net zero

Around 18,000 jobs have disappeared from Aberdeen since 2010. Without intervention, the local economy will lose the equivalent of 1,000 workers a month between now and 2030, according to trade association Offshore Energies UK.
As more people flee the region, homeowners in Aberdeen watch with a mixture of anger and dismay as the value of their homes sinks while a glut of properties hits the market.
More than two thirds of homes in Aberdeen fell in value last year, according to Zoopla. The average home now sells for just £136,000 – the lowest price since 2006.

Poll this week estimates 64 seats for theSNP & 22 Reform.

Labour, Cons, LD, Greens & Alba fighting for the rest.

Scottish Tories are loathed up here outwith posh areas like areas of the Borders (my Reiver ancestors would be disgusted), Perthshire & Aberdeenshire.

They are absolutely not pro women's rights. They have said that they're going to get rid of the Equality Act - that's where the women's rights are. The SNP are an absolute disaster, but I'm sure that a Reform Scottish government would be worse. I don't think the Scottish NHS (in a terrible state I know) would last long under Reform. They are planning to get rid of all protection against discrimination (sex, race, disability, age, etc).

Surely Reform is the Tories on steroids?

Of course we can expect Reform to pocket anything that's not firmly stuck to the ground.

I’m English but will admit I’m 🙄 when Scottish people (some obviously not all) make out they’re cooler about immigration than we are because they’re somehow better, more open minded people. Like it’s nothing to do with the fact Scotland is 5 million people and England is 65 million..

Good grief

That said my friend’s Scottish boyfriend is planning on voting Reform he says. He works in the oil industry and feel the left wing red tape is stifling it.

Well, someone somewhere and in sufficient numbers are voting SNP.

Tories are so thick skinned - or arrogant- that they truly believe that they will one day return a FM. Never happen. And Reform has made that even more certain!

@Playingvideogames

Your friend's Scottish boyfriend: Forces, Oil Industry, Farming or Rangers/Hearts?