Will Reform win SNP seats in May elections ?

[52andblue]

And, if they won enough to form a coalition or even won outright, what then for devolved Scottish policies, like Benefits or education?

I imagine that Reform policies on eg benefits are as far away from current SNP ones as possible. Could they make sweeping changes quickly if they wished?

Both Holyrood & Westminster have demonstrated incompetence - the latter far more seriously eg Blair's illegal war & Johnson's shocking attitude towards & subsequent handling of Covid.

Since January of this year, except for 11-18 Feb, there has been a slim majority for independence with the "unknowns" being of a size to swing No.

All that aside, this is an unhappy Kingdom. Half of Scotland & Northern Ireland want out, with Plaid likely to provide an FM too.

In order to keep the UK together something had better be done because for sure "Cool Britannia" is dying if not dead. Richard Tice (Reform) proposal to remove devolution will result in trouble. Especially in Northern Ireland.

Let's recognise that British "internal democracy" needs to change with the times.

They are not equally bad. The risks reform pose to the nation are far worse even than the incompetence of SNP.

Excluding women's rights - on that they are equally bad, just in different ways.

You are absolutely correct about the money sent for shared services. The SNAP have not covered themselves with glory in how they deal with these things. It took them 8 years to implement the 11 benefits they took control of. My daughter is now due a review for her Child Disability Payment. Previously when it was DWP we would get the renewal pack 3 months prior to the lapse of the benefit. As I still hadn’t received the pack, I called to ask them. They say they won’t send the renewal pack until after the benefit has lapsed, because they are so behind. That means we are already 3 months behind where we should be. They are currently saying to can take 6 months for the award to be awarded so it will be October before it is confirmed. The current waiting time for DLA from DWP is 12-16 weeks. Under the U.K. system we would know by May at the latest. We’re fortunate we already have the benefit and it will continue to be paid, but for new claimants it’s really difficult. The delay is impacting our ability to renew the blue badge, they will only do it annually (at £20 quid per pop) until she has a fixed date for review. It also leaves us in an insecure position with her motability car. It is due for replacement, but we can’t do it until she has confirmed benefit status.

SNP will no doubt claim they are doing much better than DWP, but only because they are fudging the figures by stopping any renewals. This means they are paying out benefits to claimants who may not be eligible at renewal.

At Indyref, SNP claimed it would cost around £300m to set up a new nation. In 2018 their own estimate went up to £500m. They denied the treasury estimate of £1.5b, saying it was “project fear” and was hugely inflated to scaremonger people. To date, the infrastructure for just 11 benefits has cost £700m. We can’t ignore these costs.