Holyrood Election Predictions

[Meeplemakeglasgow]

I’ve (productively) been spending the morning working from home and listening to political podcasts.

For obvious reasons there’s a lot of focus on Rachel Reeves, how she has locked herself in a cage with her fiscal rules and how she is struggling to manage as the economic growth she expected is not materialising.

Her recent ‘war on benefits’ however is apparently especially unpopular in Scotland, with the general consensus being that very few people shifted their vote to Labour expecting a drop in support to the disabled, even many of their MP’s it seems.

This (along with several other factors) has seen Sarwar’s support drop even further, some polls have them neck and neck with both the Tories and Reform, although most still have them slightly ahead of both.

The SNP however seem to be recovering from the last election with an approximately 20 point lead at the moment, the Greens and Lib-Dems also seem to be gaining ground on a smaller scale.

With roughly around a year until the next election I wonder how everyone thinks the next year will play out?

The wild card here is Reform, have to admit I’m surprised by the polling numbers and I honestly can’t see them attracting 15% of the Scottish vote, will they still be a credible force in 12 months time or well the infighting and gaffes destroy their Scottish vote?

If they did implode then what would happen to their expected votes as although right-wing they seem fairly anti-conservative?

If they did go to the Conservatives then there is a chance they could push Labour into 3rd place, which would be a major black eye for Starmer/Reeves and be a predictor for the next UK election.

What do you think Labour’s strategy will be to try and recover the support they had last time?

Do you think Sarwar will distance himself from the UK Party more and what issues will he use to do this?

Then what about the SNP, the subject has been done to death on these pages so don’t intend to go into Campervangate again but the fact Sturgeon has been exonerated gives them a good line of attack.

Do you think they’ll focus on the steady hand on consistency or use what many will see as Labour’s betrayal to have another push for independence?

No doubt there are still internal tensions, Forbes appears to still attract a lot of support but is controversial within the party, although one of the commentators pointed out she attracts voters who wouldn’t otherwise vote SNP, will she be sidelined for this election or pushed up front is another question?

I really can’t remember the last time a Scottish election was in the balance so much, as a political geek I’m actually looking forward to it.

If Scottish labour manage to make defence and green jobs come to Scotland before the election, that could help a bit - reckon that’s their best hope now…agree that uk labour have really dealt Scottish labour a poor hand so far.

As it stands it looks as though the SNP will be crowing again- as for reform that’s hard to say, there certainly are a lot of people fed up with all mainstream politics and the Scottish brexit vote was what just under 40 percent so perhaps there is some market for reform here…let’s hope not!

I don’t care about the campervan etc. I care that the SNP are doing a truly diabolical job.

Drug deaths up 12% this year. Educational attainment falling. NHS most expensive and worst performing in the UK. Waiting lists for operations vast.

What are they doing well? Anything? Shona Robison said this week that she wants Scotland to have full fiscal autonomy which has to be the most stupid thing an SNP minister has ever said.

Just diabolically stupid politicians. I cannot take them seriously at all. They’re just a bunch of primary school children playing grown ups. The thought of them having 4-5 more years to make living here even worse fills me with despair.

@Breezybetty That’s very insightful Betty, I’m sure there’s enough SNP bashing threads here to have a rant on though.

I was hoping to have a thread looking at what we think all the major parties would do, what strategies they would take and what you think the outcome will be?

@miamimmmy That’s a couple of good points, I tend to forget that there is a significant minority who supported Brexit.

Although I would assume that has went down a sizeable amount now after the chaos it caused?

Another related factor is that with Europe effectively being cut adrift from the US then is labelling Farage a Trumpian an easy way to neuter the party?

It’s possible that the US overt aggression to the EU will hurt reform, we can only hope! Yes, certainly enough brexiteers here to give reform a scary vote share…

i wonder if the Lib Dems will do better - they’ve been to me at least by far the best in the last year on various issues…

But yes, the polls I’ve seen do seem to say that a lot of former brexit voters have realised it’s been a disaster. I suppose that’s another factor that could swing in labour’s favour if they manage to make moves back towards the EU…

Interestingly attitudes in Europe have softened towards the UK, think there has been an acceptance that given the threat posed by Russia and the changes in the USA that actually having the UK, Germany and France on the same page is beneficial for all.

Whereas a year ago thanks to being traumatised by the last negotiations with Boris’s government very few EU Members would even think about opening discussions with the UK again there is now an opportunity to build a closer relationship, whether that’s by aligning more or making a move to rejoin then who knows.

Although I can understand why it isn’t spoken about I honestly can’t see any scenario now where a rejoin referendum would fail.

None of the benefits have materialised and the only people who have gained are Putin and Trump.

Even the majority of the Conservatives now believe it was a bad idea thanks to the Brexiteer exodus to Reform.

Plus it would kill Reform stone dead.

Would like to see them make a push for more list MSP’s.

I think they’ll struggle to fight the election on their chosen issues though.

I've voted labour most of my adult life.. never again Reeves grinning like a Cheshire cat ahead of cutting benefits of proposals.
Meanwhile taking gig tickets for free plus the sneaky £2500 pay rise for MPs.
Gads min🤮🤮🤮

She seems to have been making some quite bizarre decisions, a lot of what she wanted to fund was based on projected economic growth, which clearly hasn’t transpired.

The Trump trade war was completely foreseeable and she has hit businesses hard at the same time.

Then she has picked on the most vulnerable of benefits claimants, I honestly don’t know why Starmer is sticking with her to be honest.

She couldn’t not tackle the ballooning disability bill. The disability bill in other Western European nations has fallen back to thst of pre-covid. Ours hasn’t. Ours has skyrocketed and has continued to do so - in all of the UK but more so in Scotland. The cost of this is utterly massive. This will bankrupt the country in due course if we don’t do something drastic about it, and she’s not even really addressing the situation by trimming the estimated cost by £5bn. That’s a drop in the ocean. No one has a solution other than to say how nasty she’s being. I think more people understand why she’s reduced disability payments than are letting on. The Scottish government have said they won’t reduce disability benefits which is popular with their voters who research shows are more likely to be on benefits, but I don’t think this will be popular with other Scot’s who will wonder what other budgets will be cut to fund this. Budgets have already been looked at again to uncosted fund public sector pay rises, and now are going to be cut again to fund the inflated disability payments. I think this will prove unpopular with a lot of the working people.

I think Trump’s madness will cool the Reform vote. I do think Anas Sarwar has disappeared from public view and Russell Findlay has taken the spotlight more. The Tories are the only party talking sense on trans issues. In the whole I expect the 2026 vote to bring a similar government to the one we currently have, and that’s a terrible thing.

We can all see that the growth in young people on disability benefits is a huge issue - it’s a disaster for those young people firstly, but…this is what I don’t like about labour at the moment - announcing cuts to benefits isn’t a considered approach to addressing that issue, where is the thought?

so much of their policy has been led by Reeves getting up and making tax and spend changes, with very little around that. I don’t think Reeves has been great but it’s their overall policy platform around this that has been woeful.

I’m guessing that Starmer is keeping her around to take the fall whenever (if) finances improve so he can get a surge on the back of it.

I’d agree with that, when young people (or anyone) can’t see any opportunity to move forward through work then you will have many just deciding to opt-out completely.

The approach should be more Carrot and less Stick, or at the very least Carrot and Stick.

I know some lip-service had been paid to help them into employment but there’s no way that’s anywhere close to up and running yet.

George Osbourne cut out of work benefits but rose disability benefits, incentivising those who didn’t want to work to hop to disability benefits instead. Rachel Reeves is undoing some of that, but yes the genuinely disabled are getting caught in the crosshairs which is terrible.

Scotland not reducing disability benefits too and instead taking money from other budgets is disastrous. There are classes without teachers in Glasgow due to funding cuts. How much more can be cut?

Very bad funding times all round - but why lead with the cuts? I don’t see much evidence they engaged with charities aimed at helping young people and got them on board, the charity space seems to be up in arms en masse. Not great politics…if they did engage and some charities are supporting the changes - that message hasn’t got out…

Yes, the whole thing seems like pulling away the rubber ring before the lifeboat arrives.

Getting people back into work and being able to support themselves is a great thing, apart from the financial benefit being given back pride/autonomy is great for mental health.

But if we’re honest this isn’t about that, it’s the result of a miscalculation and the government being scared to raise taxes for wealthier people.

What I don’t like about it is the propaganda campaign, yes like any system some people may cheat but the vast majority of disabled claimants are genuine and I feel as if they’ve been portrayed as the enemy.

I’m also a life long labour voter. I was hoping they’d win next time but I can’t see it now. I dont think the Westminster government will be able to pull anything significant out of the bag in time. I just dont think impact from defence and green jobs will come in time. Penalising the disabled and let’s not forget this impacts on their families often children is outrageous even if the SNP say they won’t implement it here I agree not sure how they are going to fund it. I agree something has to be done to get the disabled who are are able into work but that work has to be properly paid and they need proper effective support and help as do employers. I can only hope (and pray) that Reform do badly I like to think that’s Scot’s have more sense 😀 and more tolerant of immigration particularly with our aging population. Anyone with 2 brain cells to run to together can see Brexit unsurprisingly hasnt delivered what it promised. So I think we’ll get another SNP goverment.
With regard to NHS Scotland I’m an HCP Ive worked in both England and Scotland as have quite a few of my colleagues certainly from an employee perspective in both we all feel the NHS is better up here NHS England is like war. I was at a recent meeting where a change in policy was being discussed to save money although it would be unpopular with many patients, I assumed this had already been implemented here it certainly was in England over 15 years ago. .
I know nothing about education but was talking to a teacher the other day and he thought it was better here than in England. Someone commented up thread that children in Glasgow didn’t have teachers I know this has been going on in parts of England for years. It’s so easy to think the pasture is greener somewhere else. I accept it’s not a race to the bottom obviously but I sometimes think those who live in Scotland have no idea how bad it is in NHS England under 14 years of age Tory government.

Completely agree @Meeplemakeglasgow on all points - given the funding situation their income tax commitment was nonsense, what they have done on employer NI is damaging employment, which is what they say they want to encourage…

Yes I agree. I’m an ex snp voter but now I find myself leaning towards voting Tory for the first time ever. They are best on women’s rights and economy imo.

The problem for Labour is that they know they won’t raise anything significant from taxing the wealthy and they need to raise taxes on those in the middle. They don’t want to lose the votes hence the employer NI raises.

we really need to fund education and the NHS better. I’m really not happy with the SNP diverting funds from already poorly funded services to pay welfare to people who shouldn’t be entitled to it.

It is a good point though re income tax rises - people need to accept higher taxes on middle earners for decent services - IFS has been banging this drum for years, in line with the rest of Europe…

It’s not the middle earners even it’s the low earners that is the anomaly. There’s such thing as a nil rate band in Sweden, and yet we want similar levels of public services to them. It isn’t going to happen.

Either we accept worse public services or we pay more basic rate income tax. I’d rather we pay more basic rate income tax.

SNP way in the lead at present (polling March 2025).

Despite their "issues" it'll be SNP/SNP for me: can't stand Reform or Cons. As for Labour - too London centric.

I think Reform have just split the pro-union vote. Think DUP/UUP letting SF in.

That and despite the many issues/failings around the SNP we "Celts" are generally more left of central so Badenoch is out, and unless SKS stops undermining Sarwar so is he.

Latest polls have the SNP well in the lead.

I'm voting SNP/SNP this time. I want IndyRef2 & the chance to be free of the Westminster chaos now.

Hard no to another 'once in a generation' referendum already. It's not going to happen. The SNP are running Scotland into the ground - the worse our finances are, the sense independence makes