Holyrood Election Predictions

[Meeplemakeglasgow]

I’ve (productively) been spending the morning working from home and listening to political podcasts.

For obvious reasons there’s a lot of focus on Rachel Reeves, how she has locked herself in a cage with her fiscal rules and how she is struggling to manage as the economic growth she expected is not materialising.

Her recent ‘war on benefits’ however is apparently especially unpopular in Scotland, with the general consensus being that very few people shifted their vote to Labour expecting a drop in support to the disabled, even many of their MP’s it seems.

This (along with several other factors) has seen Sarwar’s support drop even further, some polls have them neck and neck with both the Tories and Reform, although most still have them slightly ahead of both.

The SNP however seem to be recovering from the last election with an approximately 20 point lead at the moment, the Greens and Lib-Dems also seem to be gaining ground on a smaller scale.

With roughly around a year until the next election I wonder how everyone thinks the next year will play out?

The wild card here is Reform, have to admit I’m surprised by the polling numbers and I honestly can’t see them attracting 15% of the Scottish vote, will they still be a credible force in 12 months time or well the infighting and gaffes destroy their Scottish vote?

If they did implode then what would happen to their expected votes as although right-wing they seem fairly anti-conservative?

If they did go to the Conservatives then there is a chance they could push Labour into 3rd place, which would be a major black eye for Starmer/Reeves and be a predictor for the next UK election.

What do you think Labour’s strategy will be to try and recover the support they had last time?

Do you think Sarwar will distance himself from the UK Party more and what issues will he use to do this?

Then what about the SNP, the subject has been done to death on these pages so don’t intend to go into Campervangate again but the fact Sturgeon has been exonerated gives them a good line of attack.

Do you think they’ll focus on the steady hand on consistency or use what many will see as Labour’s betrayal to have another push for independence?

No doubt there are still internal tensions, Forbes appears to still attract a lot of support but is controversial within the party, although one of the commentators pointed out she attracts voters who wouldn’t otherwise vote SNP, will she be sidelined for this election or pushed up front is another question?

I really can’t remember the last time a Scottish election was in the balance so much, as a political geek I’m actually looking forward to it.

In NI, a generation is actually in the GFA as being every 7 years.

That aside, teens who were only days short of being able to vote are now adults in their 20s.

When will it be their turn?

And a "hard no, never again" is hardly indicative of a consensual union.

The UK has changed - Engish politics are unrecognisable now. Brexit? Far right riots? In Ni an SF FM?

If not independence then maximum devolution as promised by Cameron. A promise broken. Eg let Holyrood borrow. Bin Barnett but let Scotland keep her taxes.

Currently we receive over £2k per head of population more than we raise in taxation. Thus is because the City of London (one of the worlds most successful financial services hubs, if not the most successful) makes masses and masses and as a member of the UK we receive a share of that bonanza. You would have to be insane to want to walk away from that. Totally and utterly insane. Or you don’t have any understanding of the financing of the Scottish state whatsoever.

Last time round we were told independence would be funded by oil…….

I’m not sure a £2k per head handout is enough reason to not want to be independent, are we really saying that the efforts and ingenuity of the Scottish people would not be able to surpass £2k a head in economic value?

We understand how things work just now, but those who want independence believe that with self-determination they could do better than how things are just now, given how the country has been let down by all political parties since the last referendum I’m inclined to agree with them.

I voted no in the last referendum, unsure what I’d do now, if reform continue their rise to the top of UK politics then I, like many others I suspect, will easily be persuaded to move their vote to Yes.

As for this ‘once in a lifetime’ argument, another handful of years and people who weren’t alive at the time will be able to vote.

It’s not really fair they don’t get a say eventually.

No matter what way you look at it, or your personal views, there is no way that a nation which has approximately 50% of citizens who want to break it up can be considered successful.

there is no way that a nation which has approximately 50% of citizens who want to break it up can be considered successful.

Whereas a nation where 50% don’t want to be separated from the nearest neighbour will be?

are we really saying that the efforts and ingenuity of the Scottish people would not be able to surpass £2k a head in economic value?

You mean generate an extra £10 billion whilst putting a hard border with our main trading partner and requiring significant expenditure to duplicate currently centralised costs? Whilst at the same time having to rely on other countries for basics such as fuel?

I also wonder why, if the Scottish people are so ingenious, we have such a posse of pathetic MSPs at Holyrood that seem lacking in any integrity. Just look at the disgraceful way they voted to keep Maggie Chapman as deputy of the Equalities Committee despite her calling the Supreme Court hateful bigots? Or look at the way they run education and NHS Scotland into the ground?

Or their inability to build ferries.

I predict big numbers for Reform. Everyone I speak to - and I mean everyone - is voting for them.

I understand why - they feel let down by all the other parties. But whilst some may call reform extremists, the problem with them is more basic than that - they (as in Reform politicians themselves) don’t really know what their basic underlying principles are and therefore how they will tackle day to day issues beyond immigration. They are fairly muddled even on immigration other than illegal migrants are a bad thing. Maybe voters don’t care, they just want change. It will be interesting to see what happens in the English councils controlled by them.

@CleaningSilverCandlesticks What’s your point here?

You’ve just said what I did in reverse.

It will be interesting indeed to see what happens in Reform councils. They claim they will go in and stop waste and save lots of money, but councils have to fund social care (adult and child), SEN education and housing, as mandated by Westminster and they will be sued if they don’t provide this, and they have practically no money for anything else. So it’s make cuts and get sued or continue as we are currently doing. Interesting to see which course they’ll take.

Reform sound utterly abhorrent but I’d still vote for them over the SNP or Greens.

I don’tlike the SNPs social policies either. The welfare bill is too high. People aren’t taking responsibility for themselves. Where’s the income protection insurance? Where’s the critical illness insurance? We need state run insurance to cover getting ill or losing your job or getting dementia. We cannot just rely on the state funding endless handouts all the time. I’m sorry but it is totally unaffordable. We are taxed to the hilt - my top rate sees 69p in every £ of income being taken by the Scottish government in tax. This is simply too greedy and I’m fed up of it.

Feel Lib Dems have been the best of a poor bunch recently - agree SNP could do with a spell out of power to weed out some of the less talented but also clear based on current evidence that they’ll be in charge again…

Lib Dem’s are as bad as the SNP and Greens and entrenched in gender ideology.

Yes. Your argument goes both ways.

Well yes @CleaningSilverCandlesticks but since we couldn’t rely on any party on that except tories…unless I hear anyone in LD rubbishing the SC verdict.

It’s frustrating that so many of the parties just instantly write themselves off over the gender issues. The Tories and Alba seem to be the only parties with any form of respect for women. I don’t know why it is that parties feel they have to be intrenched in misogyny to be ‘left wing’.

The gender nonsense was a complete sh*tshow from most parties in the country.

For me though the main challenge we’re facing now is how to navigate an even tougher global economy to increase opportunities and fairness for our young people.

The amount of child poverty in this country is absolutely shocking, gang violence is again on the rise, our schools aren’t safe and addiction levels are far too high.

All of these are linked to generational poverty, the party who actually seems to want to improve this will get my vote.

Gender ideology is a drive to ignore reality and punish those who refuse. If a party is prepared to punish people who observe that a man is a man not a woman, then what next?

The SNP’s response to intrenched poverty seems to be to throw money at parents. I’d rather they used more sophisticated methods such as looking at reintroducing sure start etc, reducing violence and disruption in state schools to allow those in worse performing schools to thrive too. I think we need to clamp down on crime more and anti social behaviour. The cracked window theory. Make sure poorer areas are still safe places for people to live. And build many, many more houses. Encourage this by ditching the stupid rent cap.

There certainly won't be a Tory FM.

Ever.