Heading into winTier ..... the one we hoped it would be over before...

[dancemom]

New thread Tierers ...

• 8,725 new cases* of COVID-19 reported.
• 20 new reported deaths* of people who have tested positive
• 16 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 1,226 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,436,867 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 4,158,818 have received their second dose, and 3,437,398 have received a third dose or booster

• From 1 March 2022, the national case definition has been updated to include reinfections. This means the headline number of COVID-19 cases and deaths now includes cases based on an individual’s first positive test as well as possible reinfections, where an individual tests positive 90 days or more after their last positive test.

Thank you @dancemom

I thought we were already including reinfections?

@mibbelucieachwell

Thank you *@dancemom*

I thought we were already including reinfections?

No, the rUK has been doing it for about a month but we weren’t. Which if you think about it means these higher case levels we’ve been having were actually undercounts

I wondered when they were going to start adding reinfections... they suggested some point round the end of Feb I think, but I'd forgotten it wasn't being done tbh! It's about 10% at the moment, so even without them our figures are still pretty high.

I wondered if it was because there are comparatively fewer tests being done down south, now there's no requirement to isolate? We may get a feel in the next few weeks, I suppose, if there's an increase in hospitalisations south of the border, with no corresponding apparent increase in cases but I doubt it. And at the moment, we're the ones with higher hospitalisations with our careful and cautious testing and isolating, still wearing our masks on the way to the pub toilets...

A big jump in the number of people in hospital with covid today. But the number of admissions this week is slightly down on last week's.

• 9,491 new cases* of COVID-19 reported.
• 36 new reported deaths* of people who have tested positive
• 16 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 1,272 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,437,162 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 4,159,556 have received their second dose, and 3,440,493 have received a third dose or booster

• From 1 March 2022, the national case definition has been updated to include reinfections. This means the headline number of COVID-19 cases and deaths now includes cases based on an individual’s first positive test as well as possible reinfections, where an individual tests positive 90 days or more after their last positive test

• 9,551 new cases* of COVID-19 reported.
• 24 new reported deaths* of people who have tested positive
• 16 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 1,267 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,437,559 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 4,160,391 have received their second dose, and 3,443,616 have received a third dose or booster

Thank you @dancemom . Thanks to seeing today and yesterday's numbers I see aim was mistaken about the hospital numbers and today there's a (tiny) decrease. Hurrah.

I looked at the number of hospital admissions for the week ending 28 Feb and they were very slightly down on the previous week. So that's hopeful.

• 8,656 new cases of COVID-19 reported.
• 0 new reported deaths of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are generally closed at weekends)
• 18 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 1,360 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,438,528 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 4,162,451 have received their second dose, and 3,451,358 have received a third dose or booster

the week ending 1 March, 859 patients with confirmed COVID-19 were admitted to hospital in Scotland

As far as I can see, from travelling tabby, admissions peaked in Jan and have been largely flat for several weeks. So how have the numbers in hospital with covid gone up in the past 2ish weeks????

In my nearest hospital it's because patients are staying in hospital longer. In January the average age of patients was lower and hospital stays short, but now the average age has increased, they tend to need a longer hospital stay. This means that the overall number in hospital is higher despite lower admissions. Not sure if this is the case everywhere.

Yes, that makes sense laughinglemur. Travelling tabby is showing a small but consistent increase in cases in the older age groups since late Jan/ early feb, which would be expected to lead to increased hospitalisations, and longer stays in that age class, rather than the younger groups who were infected over christmas/ new year.

At least the "50% higher case rates" in Scotland now seems to be being picked up in the media... with JL popping up to say its absolutely fine, nothing to see here. I've just got my fingers crossed it doesn't affect the 21st March end of restrictions, which is only being confirmed next Tuesday, I think. It seems bonkers that they would think it sensible to keep measures which by definition haven't been working, but, hey... that's not how things work here .

I also hope this isn’t used as an excuse to keep the clearly ineffective extra restrictions. But evidence-based decision making doesn’t seem to be how it’s done up here, and Nicola has to keep up the charade of being more ‘cautious’ and ‘caring’ than Westminster, despite rightly getting stick for her approach making things worse, so who knows. I think she’s just as likely to double down on masks and all that shit to look like she’s showing ‘leadership’ - she’s hardly going to admit that these things are ineffective, or that restrictions just kick things down the line a bit (in our case into the time period where the boosters for the vulnerable are wearing off and fewer people were naturally boosted while we were all being ‘protected’ - go Scotland)

Travelling tabby is showing a small but consistent increase in cases in the older age groups since late Jan/ early feb,

This would sound like booster wearing off would it not? Immune system less good with age and most elderly people will have had booster over 4 months ago now.

Think I heard the elderly are to get another booster?

Probably booster wearing off combined with cases being utterly rife is not a good combo. Fine if boosters wear off while there's not that many cases circulating, otherwise not so much.

Does the coronavirus act not expire on 21 March..

I thought it was for 2 years and was signed into law the 23 march 2020 ..and it was a UK act of Parliament was it not?

Good point frasersmummy. I know there are separate Scottish regulations, but they are tied to the rights in the UK coronavirus act. The SG did extend the Scottish regs to September, when they should have expired end of Feb... So that may be their get out clause, as they were enacted while the CA was still in place? My memory is that they've shifted a lot of covid regs away from the actual CA though, into general health and safety regs (all the requirements for hospitality to keep details and so on) - so the onus is on businesses to implement the "protections" in order to meet the H&S regs. I think it's only masks that are in the Covid Regs now.

• 11,685 new cases of COVID-19 reported.
• 19 new reported deaths of people who have tested positive
• 19 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 1,440 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,438,843 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 4,163,548 have received their second dose, and 3,454,185 have received a third dose or booster

Cases seem to be going up quite rapidly now, which I guess is in line with other sources (ONS). I really hope she doesn’t use this as an excuse to postpone dropping restrictions, when it’s almost certainly the heavier restrictions that are dragging the bloody thing out in the first place! If we’d gotten the infections out the way like England did, giving people a natural booster at the perfect time for it, I doubt we’d be seeing these increases now (when boosters are waning).

This is my fear too @Y0uCann0tBeSer10us I'm imagining her postponing the lifting of 'protections' until the 4th round of vaxes for the 75+ and vulnerable group has been done. Who knows how long that'll take SG to organise.

Exactly @mibbelucieachwell, especially if they're going to be taking up clinic time giving appointments to low-risk 5-11 year olds in a letter campaign, instead of it being a more optional 'if you want it' offer like the JCVI intended.

About 400 more people in hospital than 2 weeks ago.
That's with covid

I'm guessing this is the booster waning effect @patritus. It's been about 6 months since the most vulnerable were boosted I think, so unless they've been naturally boosted in the interim they might be becoming susceptible again. I guess the important data point will be how sick they are, i.e. are they ending up in ICU?

ICU numbers are still very low.

Booster waning but possibly older people mixing more after two years of leading restricted lives.

@mibbelucieachwell

This is my fear too *@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us* I'm imagining her postponing the lifting of 'protections' until the 4th round of vaxes for the 75+ and vulnerable group has been done. Who knows how long that'll take SG to organise.

Oh God... I really hope not.

I did wonder if the increase in cases comparatively in Scotland was due to the removal of isolation requirements etc in England, so less testing there. But it does reflect the ONS data too, and there would still be testing on admission into hospital etc, and though there's a slight increase in England too in the past couple of days, it's much less pronounced than here.

I agree it's likely the waning of booster protection in the older cohorts, so hopefully will decline once the next booster programme gets going. And fingers crossed nothing is delayed while it is! I also really hope they don't prioritise the 5-11s over the older cohorts too... That just seems bonkers logic. Do whichever kids want it in the summer, fine (which will also reduce absences due to appointments given during school hours, at clinics miles away), but top up the vulnerable groups first.