Heading into winTier ..... the one we hoped it would be over before...

[dancemom]

New thread Tierers ...

The media do it too @tigger1001

The headline I saw was along the lines of 'Scotland records highest number of cases since blah blah' with an absolute lack of context to make it clear that, actually, the percentage of positive cases has been steady for ages now.

@Thirstquenching sometimes it's just to double check info others can be if he's been in a higher risk setting such as school,healthcare or Dr's etc or because its showing omicron.
I wouldn't worry too much usually they just ask the exact same questions!

@tigger1001
One of the journalists asked a question and said he had seen some Edinburgh guidance that suggested a return to full class isolations. Nicola Sturgeon said she didn’t know anything about it at that point. I’m assuming though that it might be suggested here in Edinburgh and that’s why I said what I did about being fearful my primary aged daughter will be back to isolations when there’s a positive case in the class.

I thought home LFTs were not included in those daily numbers, just PCRs.

Yes it's just pcr tests they publish daily

Yes, I think that's right lizzie. But the positive LFTs should be "converted" into positive PCRs a day or so later. So the number of positive PCRs would be expected to increase if there is a push to get more people doing LFTs. And the %positive PCR would also increase, as all those people will almost 100% certainly get a positive PCR, whereas anyone with a negative LFT wouldn't get a PCR to confirm they were negative.

I think down south they provisionally register positive LFTs in the daily figures, and they get either "firmed up" when a positive PCR follows, or dropped if a negative PCR follows. That used to be how it worked anyway, though they may have changed it. In either case though, I think its a bit dodgy to count positive but not negative LFTs... though I have no clue how sure they can be that either are being properly registered anyway?!

But in this case, it sounds as if the increasing testing is just the result of them working through a backlog, or maybe increasing capacity, so may not be anything to do with LFTs at all!

@BlameItOnTheBlackStar

The media do it too *@tigger1001*

The headline I saw was along the lines of 'Scotland records highest number of cases since blah blah' with an absolute lack of context to make it clear that, actually, the percentage of positive cases has been steady for ages now.

Yes the media do it it's how they generate income.

I expect (although god only knows why) a higher standard from our elected government. I have so little faith in any politician because of the constant manipulation of stats etc to further their agenda that if one told me which way north was, I would check a compass.

@BlameItOnTheBlackStar

The media do it too *@tigger1001*

The headline I saw was along the lines of 'Scotland records highest number of cases since blah blah' with an absolute lack of context to make it clear that, actually, the percentage of positive cases has been steady for ages now.

And to be fair to the journalists- that's what the first minister said!

• 4,087* new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 44,390* new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 9.9% of these were positive
• 12 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive
• 33 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 552 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,361,197 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 3,971,488 have received their second dose, and 2,076,084 have received a third dose or booster

• PHS note there continues to be an impact on turnaround times between specimens being taken and results reported.

That's the best hospital numbers in a while.

Was out shopping today and ended up face to face with a bunch of anti vaxx marchers. Fucking belters everyone of them. Even my kids were like 'ooh, medicine and science, sounds terrifying mate'

Anti Vaxxers

I get peoples right to choose but it should be based on them actually weighing up evidence not something on social media!

I mean I generally think unless there is a medical reason then they are bonkers knowing how ill I was in mid 30s but that's their choice and I wouldn't hold much sympathy for them be it covid or a different vaccine.
I would take anything to avoid being as ill as I was and thankfully the vaccine does reduce the severe nature of it even though it can still escape it a bit.

• 4,002* new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 42,057* new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 10.2%* of these were positive
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at weekends)
• 37 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 541 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,362,468 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 3,973,761 have received their second dose, and 2,116, 228 have received a third dose or booster.

• PHS note that, whilst improving, there continues to be an impact on turnaround times between specimens being taken and results reported

• 3,756 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 34,138 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
◦ 11.8% of these were positive
• 0 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (noting that Register Offices are now generally closed at weekends)
• 39 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 561 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19
• 4,364,519 people have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccination, 3,976,670 have received their second dose, and 2,154,571 have received a third dose or booster.

Anyone else downloaded the covid status app and not able to do facial recognition, ie my face isn't being verified, is there any way to fix this?

Cases coming back down..maybe there won't be a tsunami after all..??

My gut feeling is that this is a massive overreaction. Drs on the ground in South Africa seem really frustrated at our response and are adamant that this is the mildest variant yet, and there doesn't seem to be much evidence to the contrary.

I wouldn't be at all surprised the current doomsday predictions turned out to be like those in the summer, when we were supposed to get 100k infections per day but ever hit anything like it. We may well get a largish wave of infections, but hospitals overwhelmed with it? Very unlikely. Evidence on the ground suggests that while antibodies wane and protection against infection drops off, protection against severe disease remains very good with two doses. Plus Omicron actually has quite a high immunity wall to climb between the highly vaccinated population (including triple jags for almost all of the most vulnerable), as well as high levels of natural immunity which is thought to be more resistant to variants.

I'd guess that we get a sharp peak (not sure how high) of infections, which will show up in hospital figures because of incidentals, but that this doesn't translate into much extra in terms of ICU usage or death. Politicians will then claim that their actions, whatever they were, have staved off disaster and we should all be eternally grateful.

@Helensburghmiddleagedmum

Anyone else downloaded the covid status app and not able to do facial recognition, ie my face isn't being verified, is there any way to fix this?

I had this... I just tried the next day and it was fine! Maybe it was assuming the bags under my eyes were new eyes or something, that didn't match the young, vibrant, pre-pandemic version of me on my driving licence. Also, I had to take my glasses off!

@Helensburghmiddleagedmum try uninstalling and reinstalling app.

If that doesn't work it may just be the facial recognition bit not working on your phone. So download app on another device (? tablet) and set up your account on that.
Then once it's all set up you will be able to log in on your phone.

Good luck

@frasersmummy

Cases coming back down..maybe there won't be a tsunami after all..??

True, but also there were many fewer tests overall reported today, and the % positive was about the same, or maybe a bit higher. Seems to be Monday always has a lower number reported... Presumably as people don't generally test at the weekend! And there was a glut last week, so it would be lower than that.

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us

My gut feeling is that this is a massive overreaction. Drs on the ground in South Africa seem really frustrated at our response and are adamant that this is the mildest variant yet, and there doesn't seem to be much evidence to the contrary.

I wouldn't be at all surprised the current doomsday predictions turned out to be like those in the summer, when we were supposed to get 100k infections per day but ever hit anything like it. We may well get a largish wave of infections, but hospitals overwhelmed with it? Very unlikely. Evidence on the ground suggests that while antibodies wane and protection against infection drops off, protection against severe disease remains very good with two doses. Plus Omicron actually has quite a high immunity wall to climb between the highly vaccinated population (including triple jags for almost all of the most vulnerable), as well as high levels of natural immunity which is thought to be more resistant to variants.

I'd guess that we get a sharp peak (not sure how high) of infections, which will show up in hospital figures because of incidentals, but that this doesn't translate into much extra in terms of ICU usage or death. Politicians will then claim that their actions, whatever they were, have staved off disaster and we should all be eternally grateful.

This all makes sense to me! I can see why the focus at the moment seems to be discouraging people from thinking it's much milder and so on... as there is uncertainty, and even a mild version, spread among practically everyone could be hairy for the NHS. But the models seem to assume hospitalisation at the same rate as delta, which looks a bit pessimistic as far as I can see. And even with delta, we've been having really high and rising case numbers over the past few weeks, with hospitalisation pretty stable and even falling - which can only be good news in terms of immunity and so on!

I really hope it is an overreaction, and things calm down quickly (ideally before Christmas!)

The problem too, is that the NHS is pretty close to being overwhelmed most Christmas / winter periods, through flu, icy roads and Christmas parties so there's always going to be something to scold us about.

Precisely! And I worry that this is going to be how it is dealt with from now on. No investment in NHS training, staffing, infrastructure and so on. But "discouraging" mixing, threatening lockdowns, testing and isolating (sorry, "protecting"), making everyone wear masks and work from home for x months every year....

My feeling is that covid will become one of those respiratory bugs that kills some, and affects others less badly in the short or longer terms. As we each get it a few times over childhood and young adulthood we'll get more and more immune to its worst effects generally. So I would expect in the future that covid kills some people that flu or RSV or whatever would currently kill, or maybe a few more on top of that, and others have acute or ongoing needs as a result (hospitalisation, long covid etc). So surely we should invest now to allow for that forecast additional need (well, maybe we should have invested 2 years ago, but hey...). So staff can take leave, be off ill, be off to care for dependents or whatever, without the whole system falling apart. And pressure is taken off local services for eg long covid diagnosis and treatment... and also possibly covering other post viral illnesses that aren't well catered for at the moment.

Even if it ends up going "back to normal" in the next few years, having the capacity NOT to have the annual "aaaaargh, the NHS is overstretched" media round has to be a good thing, surely?!

Hospital numbers down again today. Take note please Nicola et al