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Welcome to Scotsnet - discuss all aspects of life in Scotland, including relocating, schools and local areas.

How can a panel of 20 people have so much influence? Zero Covid

59 replies

makingitupaswegoon · 18/02/2021 11:12

So news this morning said that the COVID-19 committee wants a zero covid approach. And this is based on a panel of 20, yes 20 people from across Scotland. Surely it is completely unethical to define public policy based on a steering group of random academics and 20 people. link to report here www.parliament.scot/20210218CVDCitizensPanelReportFinal.pdf

How on earth do people like myself who are worried about long term harms of lockdowns and such an approach ever get our views known and listened to? I still maintain this is a virus that mutates and is so widespread that unless we never plan to leave Scotland again we have no hope of being Zero Covid.

Apologies if there is another thread on this - couldn't see one

OP posts:
WaxOnFeckOff · 18/02/2021 11:24

Well no they can't. They could have done something like an online survey with unbiased questions asked, still wouldn't be a complete cross section but might be more representative and could also weed out bias by asking political affiliations etc.

The harms that are being caused by lock down will knock the covid deaths into a cocked hat.

WaxOnFeckOff · 18/02/2021 11:25

There isn't another specific thread but lots of discussion on the tiers thread etc

ICouldHaveCheckedFirst · 18/02/2021 11:54

A Scotsnet poster was on this panel. She canvassed opinions on here at the time.
The 19 members of the public consulted about 30 experts - academics mainly - and other representatives.
Have you read the report, OP?

Bytheloch · 18/02/2021 11:58

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

A Scotsnet poster was on this panel. She canvassed opinions on here at the time. The 19 members of the public consulted about 30 experts - academics mainly - and other representatives. Have you read the report, OP?
To be fair, it wasn’t an official canvas and in context of the panel, any views on here would be negligible.

IMO The panel sounds like one of those polls on independence we keep seeing that claims to represent what ‘Scotland’ thinks.

No personal offence to the poster who sits on the panel, it’s just my personal thoughts

DisappointingAvocado · 18/02/2021 11:58

Feeling very very panicky about this today. We're English living in Scotland with two young kids and all extended family down south. The messaging coming out today very much seems to suggest not being able to travel to England for a very long time. Do we now have to choose between giving up our home and jobs and life (which we loved pre-pandemic), or our children having no relationship with their family? How can they put us in this position indefinitely? Most of my extended family have never even met my youngest.

ICouldHaveCheckedFirst · 18/02/2021 12:08

Bytheloch - no, it wasn't an official canvass, but she took the trouble to ask, thus getting more input.

Avocado - that's grim and you're not alone. Let's hope for everybody's sake we can all move around again soon. The report is only a recommendation and if numbers of cases and deaths continue to decline, they'll HAVE to let us out!
I just keep saying "we're one day closer".

GoldenOmber · 18/02/2021 12:11

Really think the Zero Covid advocates need to be a lot clearer about the duration of that approach. I’m all for getting cases right down while we roll out the vaccines; I’m not okay with closing borders for international travel indefinitely, just in case a new mutation that doesn’t exist yet may arise to cause trouble. So are we talking months? Years? Ever?

Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 18/02/2021 12:13

This is irritating me as well this morning, mainly because I suspect it will be used as 'evidence' that the Scottish people want to go for elimination (which coincidentally the Scottish government was going for anyway). I have no doubt that the select few on the panel assessed the information in front of them in good faith, but I do question the range of experts that were 'invited' to talk to them given the skew towards the social science/public health people we seem to have in Scotland. In particular I question how much input there was from actual virologists given that there seem to be some serious questions over the feasibility of this approach. The article here outlines why, for example, the comparison to Measles isn't particularly helpful as Measles is an unusually stable virus. Despairing a bit at the thought of indefinite restrictions, especially if it's based on non-expert (in relevant fields) science.

mootymoo · 18/02/2021 12:15

@DisappointingAvocado

I'm not sure Scotland can arbitrarily put a border up to England anyway,

Mibbees · 18/02/2021 12:31

I’ve been following this on the other thread and resisted posting there because there was a bit of negativity developing towards the poster who was part of the panel - who i admire for engaging with the panel, giving up her free time and posting on the mumsnet threads about the process. It’s been very informative, and I wouldnt have known it was happening otherwise.

However I’ve read the report linked above and the whole thing seems wordy but vague and ultimately a bit frustrating.

There’s a table on page 13 of the report ( linked in the OP of this thread), listing the options (e.g. mitigation, suppression, elimination) and what they entail e.g. closing borders for the elimination strategy. This was posted on the tiers thread as well and I had assumed there were several further columns detailing the pros and cons and exact mechanisms for implementing these measures, what the costs and consequences would be. I’m certain this analysis has been carried out, and I assume was presented to the panelists. But it’s not there, and really is critical to reaching any conclusion on this process. I’ve always wondered, for example, what is really meant by closing borders - we are not in a New Zealand situation where everything arrives by air or sea. We have a land border crossed by tens of thousands of vehicles every day and I’d like to see the options for closing or controlling the border set out and what would these mean for essential supplies, businesses that operate cross-border and so on.

I’m also a wee bit concerned that in considering the importance of the “four harms” against which recommendations were to be considered - on page 14 - the panel gave “direct health impacts” a rating of 9.7 (out of 10) and gave “economic impacts” an importance rating of just 6.5. Surely things are more joined up than that, giving such a low priority to the economy isn’t going to help implementing (and paying for) any other policies.

LizzieMacQueen · 18/02/2021 12:41

At first I thought a People's Panel was a great idea but I had assumed the size of it would be in the hundreds. Not just 19.

And yes Wax, those surveys that get used to canvas opinions (often to support decisions already made - looking at Stirling Council here), what a waste of time they are. They are literally full of biased statements you can agree/disagree to. Is that Canvassing opinion?

ShowmetheSnowdrops · 18/02/2021 12:43

It’s typical of the Scottish govt.
A Citizens Panel sound like a great idea but the reality is a poorly delivered piece of ‘research’ which looks like it’s been designed to reflect the existing views of Nicola Sturgeon.

I’ll be honest, I feel a bit broken by this today.
We live in England.
Family, friends and property in Scotland.
Desperate to see family who aren’t coping very well.
I’ve been positive, cheerful and a support throughout but I’m sick to death of hearing ‘Nicola says’.

It sounds like it’s going to be made as difficult as possible to cross the border and even if it isn’t, the constant threats and stress caused by the SNP’s tactics are too much for me today.

Amongst all the other reasons for going back to Scotland, I really just want to put some flowers on my DF’s grave.

LizzieMacQueen · 18/02/2021 12:53

@ShowmetheSnowdrops

That sounds hard. Regarding laying flowers at his grave, whereabouts is the grave? Maybe a kind Scottish MNetter could help out?

rogueantimatter · 18/02/2021 12:58

Noooo.

Horrific. Have people no compassion for the millions of people suffering because of the restrictions. Really suffering.

GoldenOmber · 18/02/2021 12:58

Also a bit baffled by the way the alternative strategies they considered between seem to come from a pre-vaccine world. But then they talk about this being the continued strategy throughout 2021. What?

Is there really going to be much public appetite for ‘short, sharp lockdowns’, for quarantine hotels, for mass asymptomatic testing and closed borders, once the population has been vaccinated? What would the justification be for taking a more drastic and more authoritarian approach to public health than we do with, say, measles, after that?

How can a panel of 20 people have so much influence? Zero Covid
GoldenOmber · 18/02/2021 13:01

Oh ShowmetheSnowdrops Sad

I second what LizzieMacQueen said there. If it’s anywhere near me and having someone else put flowers down until you can get here would help I’d be happy to do that for you.

MaxNormal · 18/02/2021 13:04

OP I've been following this with concern as well and posted my views on the tiers thread.

My household does have a dog in the race as this would (and in fact is already) impact DH ability to work, which has already been hugely affected over the last year.

I'm really confused by the whole thing as an elimination strategy is clearly not going to be the direction of travel from Westmister so there's no way a four-nation approach will be agreed - the idea of the Tory backbenchers, already restive with the proposed pace of restriction lifting, agreeing to a Scottish zero covid approach, is just laughable.
More importantly, the epidemiologists and other scientists who are informing Westminster's policy are taking a living-with-it approach.

With all this being the case, I don't understand how Scotland plans to implement with with no actual legal border with England and no independent funding mechanisms for further business support to mitigate restriction impacts.

Therefore a rather cynical part of me thinks that this is being done with an eye on the May elections, to allow the SNP to say look, we wanted to keep you all safe and save all of you but nasty Westminster's policies will cost Scottish lives.

Either way, it's yet more uncertainty at a time when we least need it and, on a personal note, if this is the strategy pursued to the point where the freedom of movement of Scottish residents is limited compared to their Engllish counterparts then we'll have no choice but to move south.

SpikeDearheart · 18/02/2021 13:06

Another one here living in England with family in Scotland. We haven't seen them since August (not as bad as for some people, I know) and the thought of not being able to see them again soon is sending us all into despair. They've missed nearly all of their only grandchild's first year Sad

MaxNormal · 18/02/2021 13:06

@GoldenOmber that's truly bizarre, why are they pretending that there's no vaccine rollout? Does that interfere with their wished-for strategy?

Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 18/02/2021 13:09

"Either way, it's yet more uncertainty at a time when we least need it and, on a personal note, if this is the strategy pursued to the point where the freedom of movement of Scottish residents is limited compared to their Engllish counterparts then we'll have no choice but to move south."

It's getting to the point where I'm wondering if I need an exit plan too @MaxNormal. We have family in England that we haven't been able to legally see for a long time. The idea of indefinite restrictions while we chase the zero COVID unicorn once again despite having vaccinated the vulnerable is really worrying. Most experts seem to be agreeing that the genie is out of the bottle and we just need to learn to live with it now - it's too mild in too many people and mutates too easily to be realistically eliminated.

MaxNormal · 18/02/2021 13:12

@Y0uCann0tBeSer10us would it be tricky for you? We're lucky in that no children so no worry about disrupting them, but of course potentially higher house prices down there and I dread the bank's reaction to any mortgage applications after the last year's financial shredding.
We're also lucky in that we are not tied to a particular location for work. Would you need to find new jobs etc?

ShowmetheSnowdrops · 18/02/2021 13:13

Lizzie very kind, thank you.
We have family friends nearby.
Sorry, just having a rubbish day.
There are so many of us with family scattered across the UK.

At this stage in the pandemic, I want to know that all politicians and govts are working towards a goal that is genuinely the best outcome for the greatest number of citizens and not take advantage of the situation to follow a particular political doctrine, in this case Scottish Independence.

Bytheloch · 18/02/2021 13:24

I know it’s nowhere near the same as you doing it, but I’d also visit for you @ShowmetheSnowdrops if you’re happy to share which area.

Y0uCann0tBeSer10us · 18/02/2021 13:25

It would be a bit of a nightmare tbh @MaxNormal. Our children are primary/pre-school age and their grandparents are just down the road, so it would be a massive wrench to move to England, assuming we could even find suitable work. I really don't want to leave our home if I'm honest, but it just feels like its becoming more and more oppressive to live up here and the public are just lapping it all up without question! Maybe I'm overreacting and it's the lockdown anxiety talking - we'll see what happens after May.

Bytheloch · 18/02/2021 13:25

@ShowmetheSnowdrops pop over to the railing thread, lots of support on there

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