Graph on bbc Scotland showing number of cases accelerating

[Areyousureted]

It’s increasing at an alarming rate suddenly. It’s hard to know if the new restrictions will be enough to stop the spread now.

Well the restrictions introduced in Glasgow have made hee haw of a difference so instead of increasing restrictions there, they've introduced the same restrictions over a wider area. So, no it won't help.

A travel ban in and out of the area should have been brought in weeks ago, keep everything open that was open then it's up to folk if they want to isolate or socialise.

The graphs are concerning. Part of the problem is it takes weeks to see if the measures in place are working or not and to look at the data to see where transmission is still occurring, then decide what to try next. There is still no one magic answer to the balance between containment and economy.

It seems to be working in all of the areas that were locked down earlier, with the big exception of Glasgow city. The Dunbartonshires, Renfrewshires and Lanarkshires have all stabilised in the last week (data at the bottom of the page here www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/)

I reckon the increase is due to students in Glasgow, and otherwise it’s stabilising in local lockdown areas. Hopefully the rest of Scotland will follow the same pattern next week.

Not sure what they will do about students though. In the last week about 1 in 3 cases were aged 15-19! If they send them home then it will be chaos, but they can’t keep them locked up at that age.

I'm not buying it's all students in Glasgow.

Edinburgh also has multiple uni and colleges and a population that isn't that much lower than Glasgow nowadays and yet has about a quarter of the cases? Aberdeen 2 Unis, Dundee 2 Unis.

The figures in Glasgow weren't going down due to the increased measures even before University halls opened.

Funnily enough the measures taken in Aberdeen reflected in the reduction of cases very quickly.

and the 15-19 thing, unless they break it down further could be just as many high school as students. Students arriving from England and other countries will be at least 18, potentially younger if they are Scottish, but then those students are less likely to be in halls.

If you look at the breakdown for Glasgow, it went up suddenly in the last 4 days. BBC reporting that 43% of all cases in Scotland on Thursday were 15-19. It seems too much of a coincidence that they would suddenly increase in s5/s6 just as universities went back. It’s likely to be more than 43% in Glasgow city, but if you remove this amount then Glasgow hasn’t risen much in the last week.

Edinburgh students would be expected to make less of a peak than Glasgow because the students are mostly picking it up from the city, not bringing it with them.

Glasgow had a high rate and it has doubled in the past week. Edinburgh had a lowish rate and it has doubled in the past week. The vast majority of counties without universities have seen much smaller percent increases in the last week.

Once you remove students from the picture it doesn’t look so bad for the rest of us. But pretty disastrous in the universities and for the students and their families. And for the rest of us if they don’t isolate.

Great post @peakotter.

We shouldn’t be too worried though because they’ve decided to decommission the £43 million Princess Louise hospital - awarding a US company the £440k contract to do so. Can’t be that concerned about potential numbers can they?

Thanks peakotter. Makes perfect sense.

They're decommissioning the Glasgow Nightingale?

"When the time is right" . Whatever that means was what was quoted in The Herald. Meantime the lease has been extended to April.

I think Napier University in Edinburgh had around 120 cases last week. Maybe more by now. Apart from that the numbers have been creeping up here also.

Yep and it’s only going to go up as many people don’t give a fuck any more. And who can blame them, they’ve been sold a complete pup by the FM and instead of a return to normality we are getting a year of restrictions, and no guarantee things will be better even after that. Absolute fucking shambles, and I’m starting to think there are no amount of Covid deaths that could be averted that would make this worth it.

@WaxOnFeckOff

and the 15-19 thing, unless they break it down further could be just as many high school as students. Students arriving from England and other countries will be at least 18, potentially younger if they are Scottish, but then those students are less likely to be in halls.

They have said it’s 18/19 year olds largely

We have more than doubled number of cases since this time last week. If that carries on we will have 25000 cases a day by beginning November. Hopefully we are just in a blip since universities went back.

@MadameBlobby

Yep and it’s only going to go up as many people don’t give a fuck any more. And who can blame them, they’ve been sold a complete pup by the FM and instead of a return to normality we are getting a year of restrictions, and no guarantee things will be better even after that. Absolute fucking shambles, and I’m starting to think there are no amount of Covid deaths that could be averted that would make this worth it.

Got it in one!

If they can break the years down further, why don't they? Why not tell us how many 15-16 year olds have been positive?

Yeah @MadameBlobby cause we're the only ones facing restrictions.

Your comment regarding deaths is appalling.

@sonicbook

Yeah *@MadameBlobby* cause we're the only ones facing restrictions.

Your comment regarding deaths is appalling.

The restrictions in other countries are not relevant to me. I live here. I’ve previously thought NS was doing a good job and supported her but I feel very let down now. She either lied to us about trying to eliminate the virus or she didn’t have a clue. I think probably the latter. Despite talking the talk she’s done no better than Boris.

As for the comment on deaths you miss the point. The point is there’s a tipping point in that the cost of all this to society will be worse than the virus, and likely in and of itself cause more deaths. Mass unemployment and poverty causes serious ill health and a risk of death just as much as Covid does.

I think you

Sorry @sonicbook if you’re a fan of NS and the SNP and can’t see any wrong in what they do.

Yawn. Never even mentioned NS. You're obsessed.

Yes Scotland should be the only country in the world with no restrictions and sorry but I thought you said no amount of deaths would be worth 'this' ... whatever you mean by 'this'.

That's sounds pretty much to me like I don't give a shit about folk dying tbh. Not very pleasant.

🙄

I have literally no idea what you are talking about now. It’s been clear from other posts that you’re a fan of NS. Up until v recently I thought she was doing great too. Sadly it’s clear now she’s not.

Of course I give a shit about folk dying but it is also possible for people to die of things other than Covid. Including mental illness brought about by disproportionate lockdown measures and physical illness brought about by poverty

The WHO have commented that it’s disappointing that countries in Europe are going backwards in managing the pandemic. Surely it’s OK to express equivalent concerns about our own government

@MadameBlobby I've never once anywhere said that I'm a huge adoring fan of Nicola Sturgeon or that the SNP can do no wrong. I've a list as long as my arm that the SNP government have done wrong.

You quite literally said that shitty thing about people dying and moaned about the restrictions in Scotland. I don't see what I've said that's unclear but you crack on.