Aberdeen lockdown

[fluffyugg]

I'm really worried about this (live in Aberdeenshire), I am reading people are complaining saying it's overly dramatic to put restrictions but I can't see another way? If restrictions weren't put in place wouldn't the numbers spiral again...maybe the numbers will still spiral anyway? Also worried it's going to spread into Aberdeenshire too

It is very worrying. Especially as schools are poised to go back full time imminently

I'm a bit pessimistic that this is the start of something spiraling out of control. Lots of cases in Glasgow today too

Should never have opened the pubs.

I've been someone who believes that Scotland has been too slow to get moving again, but even I agree that a local lockdown is sensible. The number of infections have more than doubled in recent days, and according to the travelling tabby website Aberdeen City has the third highest number of daily infections of any local authority in the entire UK. Reading between the lines, you also get the impression that there is community transmission that they can't trace so I don't think there's any choice really. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more of this kind of thing (Glasgow has seen higher numbers of cases in recent days too), but hopefully this will contain it so that it doesn't spiral out of control.

It’s so disappointing after we seemed to be doing so well. Do you think schools will still go back?

Really don't know, I suppose it depends how the numbers are looking by next week and whether they feel it's contained or not. So disappointed.

Also I'm not really understanding if the r value is quite low 0.6-0.9 then how did the numbers double in 36 hours, seems a really fast spread

Yes - this was done so the schools can go back. I read that the Leicester areas had around 4 times as many cases per 100,000 people when they had lockdown measures imposed. It is scary as cases have been so low and jumped so quickly though.

I really do not feel that bars and restaurants should have been opened and wouldn't go near one myself.

I hope it hasn’t been spreading for a while undetected

Bars shouldn't have been open to the extent they were. @MumofHunter that's reassuring re Leicester, did their lockdown have the desired effect, did cases fall?

There were pictures on social media of bars in Aberdeen at the weekend so I'm not entirely surprised. There seemed to be no distancing at all, inside or outside pubs. But then I've not been out locally so don't know what it's like in other areas.
The age profiles seemed worrying though - most infections under 30.

Ds went back up to Aberdeen on the 20th, having come back home to Glasgow 4 weeks earlier.

He's concerned because he was on one of the pubs mentioned the day before the outbreak. We've told him he'd be contacted if required but to be aware of any symptoms that might develop and to order a test then.

He's been very careful to follow guidelines and judgemental of those that don't He'd only been out to the pub a couple of times since he got back (once to a 'Spoons which he said he knew I'd disapprove of because of its App which helped social distancing and once to the pub on the list which was on the way home from his rugby club, where he'd been to a (socially distanced) BBQ and annual awards ceremony. As soon as the pictures of the pubs in the city centre were shown, he'd messaged us to say he wouldn't be going to a pub for a while: this was on Monday well before the local Lockdown was announced.

He thinks there was a degree of complacency and that so many people and his fellow students didn't take it seriously because of how low the cases had been in Aberdeen.

It just goes to prove it just takes one case and that this virus is still out there

To be honest I can’t really understand why the Shire isn’t included already. The crossover of people between city and shire is huge - people living in the shire and working in the city and vice versa, not to mention people living in the shire and socialising in the city. It seems a bit crazy to me that if you live in Kingswells you are under lockdown, but if you live in Westhill you’re not.

They need to shut down all the pubs, restaurants and gyms until January 2021. I know it’s drastic and there are people who’s jobs, livelihood depend on them but half measures don’t work.

@thefourgp

Millions of people will be unemployed if they do that, which will cause lots of health conditions itself. The economy is not done separate thing- it has a direct oblast on livelihoods and therefore physical and mental health. The 2008 recession caused 800,000 health conditions.

We need to get the economy moving and people jack to work in a safe way.

Personally, I have no issue if getting kids back to school is prioritised over opening up (or closing down ) recreational facilities - which includes pubs and restaurants.

I say that as someone whose ds is no longer at school, so it's not a matter of worrying about how to look after him so that I can go to work. But I worry about a generation of kids with disrupted education.

Another 28 infections recorded in Aberdeen City today (the highest of any local authority in the U.K.). High numbers recorded in Aberdeenshire too (not currently under lockdown). This is obviously a significant outbreak and I really hope track and trace are on top of it (although I have an awful feeling they might not be).

Yes and 650 significant close contacts! It seems quite extensive. I am hoping a delay in a co oils going back for a week or two. We need outbreak under control first.

Schools - not co oils!

I am also wondering what they’ll do about schools. Jason Leitch apparently today saying that the effects of the lockdown might not be felt for days or even weeks. Given that schools are due back in 4 days that could well be in the midst of high community infection rates - I wonder if this will still be considered safe.

9 of the 39 cases are associated with the cluster so 30 cases not linked to the cluster? I guess that's community transmission? Hope the lockdown has the desired effect

Mr Leitch told BBC Scotland that the increase of 60 cases was "not unexpected" but "still worries us".
He said it was difficult to be sure how many of the 39 new cases in NHS Grampian were linked to the Aberdeen cluster.
"We know that at 15:30 yesterday we had 110 cases connected to this outbreak," he said.

From the BBC.

Coronavirus in Scotland https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-53706000

I do feel a bit disappointed in the SG and the clinical director etc that there has been absolutely no reassurance or words of optimism for the people in Grampian. A very small number if people were responsible for this outbreak and yet here we are worrying about what will happen. It'd be good to hear some words of encouragement about how the lockdown will suppress the outbreak or if they are making good progress etc. Stressful times for lots of people in the area.

Yes I haven’t heard any words of reassurance. What are other parents thinking? I haven’t spoken to any other parents from our school. But it seems so strange, there hasn’t been any questioning of SG if it is actually safe the putting schools back just now in Aberdeen. Surely this needs to be addressed. I am confused.

Gyms and other similar leisure facilities would need to open before we can close them to protect school opening! I’m pretty sick of seeing photos of people I know having very drunken house parties/ huge BBQs/ mass hugging sessions. Things are different just now. For the love of god reign it in a bit people or we are going to end up with wider spread lockdowns yet again.

I am starting to think the only explanation is the SG are allowing schools to open to show the virus spreading. So they can close them and say “see it’s not possible to open full time” as it’s the only way to appease people begging for them to open.

Looking at this another way. To go from practically nothing to over 100 in a week implies either a) a lot of undetected transmission already or b) natural "R" is way higher in the community population than the 2.5 in all the models or even c) the tests are picking up previous rather than current infection and herd immunity is closer than we think.

Does anyone know who was case zero for Aberdeen pubs, why were they tested, is anyone ill?