First ministers briefing

[Trichford]

Is there one on today? If so what time will it be? Thanks

It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if scots are worse affected. We probably have lower vitamin status overall and there is a huge obesity problem and high deprivation of parts of glasgow which has the highest number of cases in scotland

yes, but that would affect the rate of those who were infected who end up in hospital and those who end up in ICU or dying, it shouldn't affect the rate of infection at all. Scotland has a lower level of BAME in the population which would also affect the levels of those presenting in hospital getting seriously ill and dying as it seems to disproportionately affect people in those categories which we really need to understand. We might need a different protective strategy similar to others who need to shield.

However, the R number is a different thing entirely.

Yes but we only know who is infected because they are sick enough to end up in hospital. So if scots are more unhealthy then more likely to present, be tested and raise the R number
The R number itself is surely a fallacy as we aren’t doing general population tests

I can’t believe boris read his statement but omitted to say anyone in Scotland and Wales should refer to their own first minister briefing for any changes. That must have been a deliberate omission by them

Indeed Called.

which is why the R number is unlikely to be in any way accurate and yet it's what we are relying on.

Anyway, from what I can see half the folk are doing what the hell they want anyway. I'm sure it's now news to half my neighbours that they were only supposed to be out once a day...although to be fair, that's not what the law said.

I wonder how many people, wilfully or not, will ignore the FM guidelines and follow WM's. If you don't watch the Scottish news or Scottish briefings and only read the likes of the Daily Mail you may not be entirely aware that the guidelines are now different. There are certainly people on here who have stated that they won't be listening to Nicola, but the 'real government'.

Personally I think NS was right to extend lockdown but a wee glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel may have been nice!

Of course it was blueberry. Deliberately not involving any parties from Wales, Ireland, Scotland even though it means more death.
So so sad so many deaths that could easily be avoided if we'd shut the borders months ago. UK has highest rate if deaths per million in the WORLD. I'm scared for my family.

I agree that it wasn't clear from the PMs briefing that it applied to England only, but I seriously doubt it was deliberate. What would be the point in that? I also doubt it will lead to loads of Scots mistakenly going back to work (assuming they're living under a rock and have somehow missed that the guidelines differ by Nation), as their work will still be closed. NS herself has said that you can now leave the house as many times as you like for exercise (which I welcome as a parent of small children!), which might be more likely to lead to people being too relaxed IMO.

I also agree that it is right to extend lockdown while the infection is less under control up here, but if England has it more under control it is also right for them to start moving, albeit slowly and carefully, as the lockdown itself causes harm and, as NS has acknowledged on many occasions, she won't extend it any longer than necessary. When getting back to normal, a phased approach seems completely sensible, and I fully expect Scot gov to follow suit in a few weeks time when our rate of infection has also fallen. It's very frustrating, and echo concerns above about the relative lack of testing up here meaning we have little clue what is really going on. I really hope that they sort themselves out soon so that Scotland can start to move forward too.

It would be interesting to know what levels of morbidity and mortality scotland is to achieve before next step in easing lockdown.
I read yesterday that there were no new cases of Covid-19 in my region (testing is now good in my area as my sister tested and has result within 48 hours) and deaths in Scotland were down to 5.

I’m waiting to see what level of Tuesday surge we get in the death rates today. They are always lower on Sunday/Monday (recording deaths on Sat/Sun) because astonishingly we are still not properly recording deaths on the weekend. Hopefully they are lower than last week. It will also be interesting to see if in due course we have regional differences in the pace of opening up within Scotland as well; there seems little point in areas with little ongoing infection to have to wait for Glasgow infections (for instance) to come down.

Well, it's my fortnight summer holidays in less than 5 weeks, really hoping that by then we will at least be able to go, as a household, out for a drive to somewhere quiet and have a picnic. That's not too ambitious is it? No doubt after all this lovely weather it will pish down for a fortnight anyway.

...and yes, I know people are dying and I shouldn't be selfish.

I'd also like to go and visit my BiL soon.

It’s not selfish to want to see family again. This situation is so tough to live with.

But another 50 COVID hospital deaths recorded yesterday (up 6 from last Tuesday I think) and a spike in hospital admissions. This doesn’t obviously seem to be going in the right direction. What is going on up here??

Oh no, youcannotbeserious that is not good 😟

Why 😟 surely a less densely populated country would make it easier to contain

whilst I have no doubt that lots of people are breaking the rules and extending this for the rest of us, my take on the increase in admissions was that it was a in increase in suspected cases rather than confirmed and the deaths spike every Tuesday due to delays in weekend reporting.

The only things I'm really looking for (asides from seeing my very ill BiL) are really being able top go for a meal out which wont be happening for a long time. I can cope with not seeing others and having no holiday as I can work from home and otherwise it's okay, so I'm in no rush. But it still doesn't make sense in terms of the lock down etc. and I'm annoyed with the lack of testing and therefore valid figures.

www.heraldscotland.com/news/18379160.coronavirus-death-rate-covid-england-nearly-twice-high-scotland/

The death rate from covid is much higher in England than in Scotland and has been for quite some time. Hence my worrying about family and friends there.

Sorry that was quite abrupt.. didn't mean to be.

Interesting piece but I think it's difficult as so many factors involved including inaccurate stats and most of the points we've already raised. Article also has a mistake as implies that there could be more Drs in England recording covid deaths as something else but it must mean Scotland as otherwise it doesn't fit with the premise discussed.

I would certainly expect that the death rate in England would be higher than ours. Still doesn't explain why our R number is apparently higher.

Yeah I don't think it is. Boris said it's between 0.4 and 0.9 few days ago then just below 1 for England and John Swinney said 0.8 for Scotland.

I don't think anyone really knows for sure, it's a finger in the air job. However we are being sold the tale that ours is higher hence the slower relaxation, but we are also being told that we are being given all the information and having an "adult" conversation. The reality is, part of that conversation should be about the fact that we don't really know the number, we don't know when it will be safe, we are all just guessing until we can reliably test the general population. All we really know is that there is capacity at the moment in the NHS to let more people catch it.

If the R in Scotland is 0.8 (and I agree it’s probably a guess!) I wonder if the slower relaxation is more to do with levels of immunity in the community. We locked down a lot earlier in our peak than say London, so you would expect a much smaller proportion of our population to have had it, and therefore have some immunity (I know it’s not proven to give immunity, but this is generally how disease works). We might therefore be more at risk of a second peak because the virus transmits more easily through a population with more susceptible people. If that’s the case our R would need to be lower at the start to keep it below 1.

Yes I agree it's a guess so best to keep lockdown going to stop a second wave.

I do notice she is well turned out - who is doing her hair?

She's doing her own, there's was a video somewhere where she was on line with her hairdresser talking her through it.