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Scotsnet

Welcome to Scotsnet - discuss all aspects of life in Scotland, including relocating, schools and local areas.

The two vote/ split vote thing. Scottish elections.

52 replies

OldCrowMedicineShow · 19/04/2016 17:11

Can anyone offer a simple explanation please?
As in telling a five year old.

OP posts:
unlucky83 · 19/04/2016 21:46

I really don't understand that Itsgoingtobe - this seems to be saying otherwise.
iainmacwhirter.wordpress.com/2016/04/18/tactical-voting-on-the-list-its-not-just-about-the-snp/
If the SNP get 9/10 seats and 100,000 votes -their vote will be divided by 10 - so they will get 10.000 votes towards a list seat.

If another party gets 1/10 seats and 30,000 votes -their vote will be divided by 2 -so they will get 15,000 votes towards a list seat - so might not get another list seat but will be more likely to than the SNP?

So not tactical voting in the constituency could allow the SNP to get all 10 constituency seats but no list seats - tactical voting getting another party to win a seat means the SNP will only get 9 seats and are still unlikely to pick up a list seat...

Or am I missing something? Have I got it wrong?

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 19/04/2016 21:58

Or am I missing something? Have I got it wrong?

There is an awful lot of nights, and what ifs, and maybes.

Also, the list votes aren't just divided once, they are divvied up again every time another seat is awarded, this happens until all the seats are awarded.

In your example other party wins the first list seat with their 15,000 votes, compared to the SNPs 10,000. However in the second round their seat number goes up so in the second round SNP have 10,000 list votes,and the other party has 5,000 (15,000 divided by their new three seats), so the SNP wins the second seat. Obviously this is a massive simplification with easy made up numbers and two parties, but it serves to illustrate how hard it is to game the system.

The SP voting system is set up specifically to avoid a majority in the parliament and to encourage a rainbow parliament with many smaller parties represented. It is truly remarkable that the SNP has the level of support that means they currently have a majority - but unlike in WM the number of MSPs does broadly represent the number of votes cast for each party.

unlucky83 · 19/04/2016 22:36

But I don't think that party with 15,000 votes would get another seat - I think the other parties are more likely to ...although I guess they might get one... but agree very complicated - but do think tactical voting is actually worth while...

Sheld0n · 19/04/2016 22:40

Our current MSP is brilliant, so I'm voting for him, and my second vote will go to his party as well. Smile Our MP is also in the same party and he has done a great job so far, so I'm quite certain of how I'll vote on the day!

prettybird · 19/04/2016 23:00

Yes - you need to realise that after every list MP is "won", the votes get divided again.

So, if you assume that, say, SNP win all 9 seats in a region (number chosen for simplicity in later calculations) and in the list, SNP get 100,000 votes, Labour get 60,000 and Greens get 40,000.

Round 1: The SNP vote gets divided by 10 (ie the number of constituency MSPs + 1 ), so only 10,000 votes and both Labour and Green votes get divided by 1 (O MSPs + 1), so 60,000 and 40,000 respectively

Labour wins the 1st list MSP

Round 2: SNP vote is still 100,000/10 (their 10 MSPs + 1); Labour is 60,000/2 (ie 1 MSP+1), so 30,000; Greens remain 40,000/1

Green Party wins the 2nd list MSP.

Round 3: no change for the SNP, still 100,000/10 (ie 10,000); Labour remains 60,000 divided by 2 (1 MSP + 1) = 30,000; Greens now 40,000/2 (1 MSP + 1) = 20,000

Labour wins the 3rd list MSP.

4th round: SNP still 10,000 votes; Labour now 60,000/3 (2 MSPs + 1) = 20,000. Greens are also on 20,000 (40,000/2).

For the purpose of this illustration, I'm going to assume that Lanour had actually had 60,010 votes, so even when divided by 3, they still have slightly more than the Greens.

Therefore Labour wins the 4th list MSP.

5th round: SNP still 10,000; Labour 60,000 divided by 4 (3 MSPs + 1); Greens still 20,000

Greens win 5th round - now have 2 MSPs

6th round: SNP 10,000; Labour 15,000; Greens 40,000/3 (2 MSPs + 1)

Labour wins 6th round

7th round: Greens win 7th round.

In this scenario, SNP wins no list MSPs

However, if, say, the SNP had only won 8 constituency MSPs and Labour had won one, then the subsequent calculations would all be different and the SNP would win a list MSP.

Add in other parties and you can see how complicated it gets. And you can see how even tactical voting in constituencies can be countered in the list.

Confused
prettybird · 19/04/2016 23:06

I've already been visited by our constituency MSP who was out canvassing on our street.

She was knocking on our neighbours' door and didn't think she should pass ours by. Smile

Some people on here really don't like her. I've always found her very approachable. Smile

LassWiTheDelicateAir · 19/04/2016 23:10

I've never really understood but I've never actually voted for any one at Holyrood other than who is most likely to make sure the SNP won't profit from my vote.

I'm seriously considering Tory in both just for that reason.

LunaLoveg00d · 20/04/2016 07:48

It is very complex, isn't it?

What I like about the list system is that you have a range of options when you need to contact an MSP about something. A few years back (in fact, just before the last Holyrood elections) we had a massive issue locally with preschool provision. All the parents fired off emails to both the local constituency MSP and also everyone on the Regional list. It was only one of the Regional MSPs who bothered to get back to us.

I will be voting tactically too - anyone but SNP. My main concern is letting them know I have zero appetite for another referendum and that they just need to get on with the job they're paid for - running the country. I am not a Labour voter and haven't been since the 90s, usually Lib Dem but although I think Willie Rennie is great, I don't think they have much of a chance. So it will probably be Conservative x 2 for me on my votes.

LunaLoveg00d · 20/04/2016 07:51

I couldn't tell you who my MSP is. He is very low profile. Think he spends most of his time campaigning in Clydebank where they seem to actually like him - preaching to the converted. Haven't had anyone round the door, few leaflets but nothing else. Last General Election we had the Labour candidate round, very nice man and very polite but I told him I wouldn't be voting for him. And letters alsmost daily from the Lib Dems as it was an extremely close run thing between them and the SNP here.

cdtaylornats · 20/04/2016 08:07

I don't like the list system, there is no way to decisively vote someone out of Holyrood, they can lose a constituency vote and still be elected by list. Also I object to voting for a party.

I think it should be reformed - if you are a constituency candidate, you can't be on the list.

Second - over the last few years we have seen Scotland needs a revising chamber - put the list MSPs in that.

unlucky83 · 20/04/2016 09:27

Luna if it is close between the Lib dems and SNP in your area why not use your constituency vote for Lib Dems and then your other vote for the conservatives?
You might get the Lib Dem in so they will get a seat but then effectively half their votes for the list.

If the SNP will probably get most of the other constituency seats in your region - they will be less likely to get another seat through the list ...
So I think then probably better to try and increase the votes for another party - the Conservatives or Labour - whoever is most likely to have the third biggest share of the vote - so they are more likely to get a list seat or two ...
And I agree it is super complicated and all a bit of a gamble - personally I have never tactically voted before last years General Election ...(even to try and get Blair out after he invaded Iraq and I was beyond furious about that and very tempted)
I always thought it was a negative thing to do - but I really think we need to do whatever we can to reduce the hold of the SNP - if they do well this time I am sure another referendum will be just round the corner ...
And they are useless at running the country illustrated by Education, NHS and Police Scotland (piss up in a brewery springs to mind) ... and them getting more power from Westminster, more things to fuck up, is frankly scary ...they really need a close parliament that can rein them in ....

StKildasNun · 20/04/2016 20:53

We have 129 msps according to google.
How depressing, I don't agree with anything they;ve done - I assume they earn about 50000 pa so thats 6.5 million - yea gods have I got that right!
Wish we could turn the clock back.

StKildasNun · 20/04/2016 20:55

What does the voting form look like if we have two votes - is it

name
name
name
name
naem

Then second vote
party
party
party
party
?

cdtaylornats · 20/04/2016 21:14

www.scottish.parliament.uk/StaffAndManagementResources/2015_04_16_MSP_Office_Holders_Salaries__1_April_2015.pdf

MSPs get £59,000 plus expenses
Sturgeon gets £144,687 plus expenses
Cameron gets £143,462 plus expenses

So you might well ask why Sturgeon gets £1200 more than the PM. Well she did campaign against austerity, I suspect many voters thought she meant them. She also has a company but not a limited company so no need to submit public accounts.

prettybird · 20/04/2016 21:38

......except that all the Scottish Ministers have kept their salaries frozen at 2008/09 levels and the "excess" goes into general public sector funds - even though they pay tax on the full amount.

dementedma · 20/04/2016 21:42

Looks complicated but I just know I won't be voting SNP and joining the ranks of the brainwashed.

prettybird · 20/04/2016 21:55

And didn't IPSA award MPs a 10% (and MPs voted through) increase last June, taking Cameron's salary to nearly £150k (plus the first £20k is tax free for some reason)? My phone keeps kicking me out of the articles I'm trying to read - so I don't know if Cameron has also chosen to freeze his salary and donate the excess to general funding although given the tax return he published he could definitely afford to Wink

prettybird · 20/04/2016 22:07

StKildasnun - it is 2 separate voting forms.

The constituency form will have the name of the candidates and the parties they represent - just like the Westminster FPTP voting form.

The list one will just have the parties - although I think they may include a wee slogan (iirc, last time the SNP had "Alex Salmond for 1st Minister").

On both, it is just a case of putting an X against your single preference. No ranking in this election - that's next year in the Council elections.

LunaLoveg00d · 20/04/2016 22:27

Yes it's one cross in each box. I worked as a poll clerk in the last Scottish Elections and must have said that about 5000 times over the course of the day. Never again.

cheeseandcrackers77 · 20/04/2016 22:30

Luna we must live near each other. The male MSP is god awfull but the idiots will vote for him no matter. I really hope he would have stood down this year but the man likes his ££££ (said so when I had the misfortune to be in his company once).

HirplesWithHaggis · 20/04/2016 22:44

blog.independencelive.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ballot.jpg

Sample ballot papers.

cdtaylornats · 20/04/2016 22:49

But the first minister’s official spokesman revealed that she would only accept £133,605 adding that taxpayers would think it “absolutely perverse” for her to earn more than David Cameron.

So no reason other than she thought it would make her look bad.

The Scottish Parliament has requested a budget of £96.7 million for 2016/17, a rise of 7.6 per cent.

LassWiTheDelicateAir · 21/04/2016 00:15

But the first minister’s official spokesman revealed that she would only accept £133,605 adding that taxpayers would think it “absolutely perverse” for her to earn more than David Cameron

Well she is right there.

Does Cameron get £150,000? That's not a huge salary compared to what he could earn in a private sector job.

cdtaylornats · 21/04/2016 07:39

Cameron gets £143,462

prettybird · 21/04/2016 08:32

I have no issue with what Cameron gets paid - or the First Minister for that matter. Looks like Cameron has also frozen the ministerial salaries according to the BBC - this was before the MPs votes through their salary increase taking their salaries to £74k and which would have meant that Cameron's was just under £150k.

So no reason other than she thought it would make her him look bad Hmm