Quick opinion poll - where is the property market going in the next 12 months?

[beanstalk]

I need some reassurance please, our purchase has fallen through, there are no other properties we like and so we are considering going into rented to keep our sale. Am slightly concerned we could be missing out if property prices rise, so what do you all think?

Over the next 12 months will prices:
a) fall further due to recession
b) stay about the same (market carries on stagnating)
c) begin to increase as mortgages become more available again?

I wish I knew beanstalk. We are in the same position as you - the house we were buying was taken off the market a few days ago, but we are relocating and have no real choice but continuing with the sale of ours.

I am currently looking for rental property in the area we are moving to, but there doesnt seem to be a great deal around that suits our needs. Most want a 12 month minimum let, and I am nervous of locking ourselves in for so long in case prices rise and we are left behind.

We are currently in south east, and things do seem to be moving quickly in our area, but in the area we are moving to (yorkshire) things are staying on the market for alot longer - maybe rises will be regional? Where are you?

Anyhow, I will be watching your thread with interest.

unavailable - snap! We are relocating from Surrey to south-west. I feel the same way about a 12 month let but agents are telling me I may struggle to agree a lease for less. Our trouble is our purchase deposit is just enough for a 20% deposit on a house in our preferred location, but if prices rise this will drop below 20% and mortgage rates are not looking great at that level. We accepted a low offer on our house, as we feel that was a realistic approach in the current market but it seems others are not prepared to do the same.

I think house prices have further to fall before there's any proper recovery.

I don't think we've seen all the forced sales coming to the market yet.

Depends where you live. Prices here seem higher than the peak of 2007 due to a severe shortage of properties. We sold at a very reasonable price as we needed a bigger house and had ours on the market for ages. We are now stuck in a smaller rented house which is costing us a fortune and have been unable to find a suitable house. Anything good that comes on gets snapped up immediately. Wish we'd stayed put to be honest. We are also cash buyers which seems to make no difference.

i also think prices have further to fall. logic says they MUST have .. mortgage rates are so high and can only go up when the base rate does (eventually). the job market is DIRE right now. the Buy to let market has collapsed. FTB cannot get mortgages unless they have a big deposit..Many of the sub prime mortgage lenders are not in business anymore..it was the exact opposite of all these things that caused the bubble.. BUT the housing market always seems to defy logic so who knows..

depends on location. stagnant in the southeast. furhter small falls elsewhere.

Marques - What part of the country are you in?

Hertfordshire

Thanks - that fits in with my (half baked) theory about the south east being more bouyant (sp?) than other places.

Hope you find somewhere soon

a)

We have been in the same position as you (may still be, have just offered but not sure of outcome) and have researched this loads. Think there will probably be more fall, not sure of magnitude but definitely more. Then eventually (in a year or two) the beginning of a very very slow recovery.

I'm not a Housing God, though

If only there were such a thing Elibean! I am veering towards a) myself, but just nervous about being wrong.

We are in the exact same position as the OP. I am too scared to continue with our sale and move to rented as I fear prices are on the rise. In our area prices have recovered considerably over the past three months and the lack of supply means we are seeing all sorts of 'peak' behaviour like gazumping and moving to sealed bids.

In my area (south east) houses are selling quickly although considering the state of the economy I can't understand it at all!!!

In your position I'd probably rent. I can't see the recovery being that steep if it is going to happen over the next 12 months. We have been renting our house out for the past year and are continuing to do so for another year.

When I looked through the leasing contract drawn up by the property management company 12 months ago, I noticed that our tenants could give us early notice to leave but that they would have to pay £500 if it was before the end of the 12 month contract. If that is standard on most contracts, then £500 is a small price to pay if, whilst renting, you find the perfect property and they require you to exchange and close contracts before your lease date is up.

Artichokes - that is exactly what we are seeing, I am in SW London. Sealed bids and asking price offers all the way and we are now worried we have undersold our house!

No dip here, I wish!

Interest rates can go one way from here.

People who have less equity now will find it hard to get a decent fixed rate deal.

Lots of people will be paying much more for their mortgages in a couple of years time than they are now.

First time buyers still can't get on the ladder because they don't have enough deposit.

Prices logically shouldn't be going up.

If they do, it is cash-rich people buying, and that is a limited number of people.

Other buyers are people who can't get out of the mindset that it is normal to be in debt for 250K for a 3 bed semi.

My expectation is that prices will rise slightly for the next couple of months.

Then, reality with dawn and people will realise they can't afford their houses. Supply of houses will then increase and prices will resume their downward trajectory.

However, who would have predicted that the govt would print money to try and remedy the situation? On that basis, anything to do with money/savings/investments/housing is a risk as we are in unchartered water.

That doesn't help much does it. Sorry

Good luck

artichokes - we were gazumped twice and ending up offering asking price to secure a purchase. The house got downvalued by the surveyor! So behaviour and offering prices mean nothing if mortgage companies are downvaluing. We won't see the effect of that until the actual purchase prices become available in a few months time.

Canvas and tigger - I agree I can't see how prices can conceivably increase dramatically over the next 12 months? Unemployment is at its highest for 20-30 years isn't it? And not getting any better. There may be regional or seasonal bounces but nothing sustainable until the economy turns a corner.

Thanks Un

My hunch is that they will stablise this summer, prime house moving time isn't it? Then when the realities of the crap economy / huge unemployment figures hit everyone again in a few months time they will fall again over winter. Peoples jobs are too insecure for a great surge in the market.

I think they will bump along at current prices for a year, then a slow increase. I can't see them dropping much further becasue of the lack of houses for sale. People are not putting their houses on the market so those that do come on are being snapped up quickly.

We sold last year and are waiting for the market to calm down, it will probably take more time where we are though, there are parts that are highly sought after and there are plenty of people waiting.

I hate renting though, and it's very unsettling for the children and there are times it has felt rather undignified asking if we can put our photographs on the wall etc. we also have a part furnished property so v. stressful looking after other peoples things and having the job to check against the inventory every bloomin spoon etc. I feel like a student again!

We made the mistake of signing up for a 12 month rental as the owners are returning from abroad, we thought we would find something to buy in the time frame but the time goes very quickly and we are very fussy! We didn't want to panic buy.

I take heart from logic saying they must come down
there is a very Interesting article here A false dawn

plus I keep checking Housepricecrash

The other thing that occurs to me is that the banks are now asking for 40% deposits for a reason, there has been talk of prices falling 50% from 2007, so the banks want to be sure if people do default on their payments they will get back what they lent on the house ( less it's new potential worth if the market continues to fall) if they have to repossess and sell on - hence the reason behind 100% mortgages was that the bank during the boom felt there was no risk of prices going down and they would get back at least the full amount they lent on.

I would always ask myself who is writing the article, what is their interest in the property market, usually they are far from neutral.

In SW London here too and it's sealed bids and full asking prices here all the way - at least for 'family home' market. We've sold and can't find anything, like susie100 now worried we've undersold. Perhaps London will recover first and faster than other places? I get the feeling here that people are starting to feel that if they still have job etc at this point then the recession may pass them by, so they can get on with major undertakings like moving house....and low supply to the market means the buyers are all bidding on the same houses, pushing up the prices... Saw a lovely house a month ago for 800k that was withdrawn from market because the vendors couldn't find a place to move to. It's now back on the market at 850k

Tinasan best of luck! We had a similar situation, it sucks.

Abbey National have started offering a 5% deposit mortgage, for the first time in ages and also it's just been reported that the economy has grown over the last 2 months. I wouldn't bet on further falls but I don't think it's going to shoot up either. Money is certainly beginning to circulate again though.

Thanks susie! I am soooooo fed up of looking and waiting now, never thought I'd see the day I'd become a 'house bore' Let's hope that lots of people put their houses up for sale just before the summer lull...