Quick opinion poll - where is the property market going in the next 12 months?

[beanstalk]

I need some reassurance please, our purchase has fallen through, there are no other properties we like and so we are considering going into rented to keep our sale. Am slightly concerned we could be missing out if property prices rise, so what do you all think?

Over the next 12 months will prices:
a) fall further due to recession
b) stay about the same (market carries on stagnating)
c) begin to increase as mortgages become more available again?

Don't read housepricecrash they have a very vested interest and will tell you the sky is going to fall in.

I agree with whoever said prices would drop after the summer boom...its classic to have an upsurge at this time of year, plus if you look at historic graphs of housing market trends this looks very much like the 'dead cat bounce'.

Another interesting snippet: we're also in SW London, and on the surface it looks as though business is booming. dh subscribed to a site that showed EA's real figures over the past few months: the percentage of asking price they have been realizing was LOWER in May than in April, even though they have sold more - it went from 90% to 80%, and the average time to sell from marketing is 7 weeks (unchanged over past few months).

Elibean - interesting and supports my view that what offers are being made isn't necessarily what property actually sells for.

I think we are definitely in for an unstable time for a while yet. The only logical way to go is interest rates go up and more property coming onto the market. That will push prices down further. The issue is when that happens I suppose?

Excuse the terrible grammar - meant to say that offers made don't reflect actual sales prices.

Far too late int he evening to worry about grammar, Bean

We went to sealed bids on a property today, didnt' get it, and confess to feeling relieved...dh too...for variety of reasons, but one being that it just doens't feel like the time we want to buy quite yet.

One property developer/surveyor we talked to said look out for prices dropping late autumn, some people say maybe a little later, but either way I really think they will. Hang in there

I'm hanging!!...
(Not through choice though, so hope you are right Elibean.)

Think of it practically. Some people managed to sell before price fall so they have good equity and possibly strong deposits. When these people have bought, there will be very few people who can afford to buy at crazy prices. IF interest rates go up, then there will be forced sales and investors will stop buying property (not that there are that many about)

Down down down down.

Big public sector cuts on their way that will include a lot of jobs!

Interest rates can only go the other way.

(Agree with poster about the printing money comment who would have guessed?)

Think gov needs to start justifying why high house prices are a good thing.

We sold in January last year and have been in rented ever since waiting. We have seen lots of houses come and go in that time. Numerous houses now are being put on the market for significantly more than at the end of 2007/start of 2008. One property in particular was on for £780k when we started looking in autumn 2007 which was supposed to have been the top of the market and is now on for £870k. People are factoring in the fact that buyers will ask for 20 per cent cuts. Its very frustrating when you're trying to buy.

The market is talking itself up and its working. People are panicking that they've missed the boat and are jumping back in quickly.

That said, there are still some bargains out there. Its just very hard to find them. Balanace of power is back with the sellers.

I think now is a good time to buy if you can get a 25 per cent discount from the top of the market price. Mortgage rates are set to rocket and all of the good fixed term deals are disappearing.

bump along without rising for a while yet but not falling much further i think(in southeast)- confidence returning but lending still v v restricted and that means not enough people are getting the mortgages they want/need to buy. plus lots of job losses still to come are going to keep buyer numbers down.
dont go too much on individual examples - our house on the market right now so we are watching what happens very closely but it's hopelessly mixed signals - two houses near us went to sealed bids in last couple of weeks but then a third, they have just been forced to take an offer 20pc off original asking price after being on the market for nearly a year. (we've been on for six weeks and agent just rang to say two people who both saw it at the weekend want to make offers tomorrow - but dont know of course if they will be anything like what we need so not getting excited yet)
it all depends on whether the original price was realistic, how badly the vendor needs to move, and a bit of luck.

What I don't understand is that in many London areas prices have crashed but outside the capital there are still many pricey areas out of London. I have been in rental since August last year and only recently sellers of areas out of the capital are getting realistic but still many are holding on. In some areas we have looked prices are way too high and in fact properties sit for months. In other areas everybody stays put and only the dogs are up for sale at inflated prices. I was having more luck in boom times (paradoxical but true).

I think that reflects the current uncertainty and anxiety - people are reacting both ways, and the market is all over the place. Last November, in our area of SW London, we saw prices crash very fast - then they rose a little in the last few weeks, and (according to most people) will almost certainly drop again towards the end of the year. Over the next 18 months, even the top EAs in our area (if you subscribe to their newsletters, they're not saying so out loud, iyswim) predict further drop in prices.

My vote is on absolutely nowhere at all.

going up again round here goldenpeach (London) however I'm assuming the next round of job losses coupled with some chunky interest tare rises will put paid to that!

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