Crystal ball request - will the markets improve or worsen?

[Destiny123]

I listed my house in June, about to change agents next week as bit sold with 1x price drop.

I don't need to move till Sept 2027 when my relocation expenses expires, but equally a long commute a few days a week is less ideal too

Don't know whether to delist and try again in the better weather or whether things are only going to get worse so better with big mger price drops now.. any thoughts pls

I'm a cash buyer waiting in wings, but I just don't think they'll slide that much. I think maybe a 5% reduction, but even that's pushing it.

I think it is a 12 year high for sale, maybe a lot of that is landlords trying to bail out?

Base rate at 4% described as "worrying" just shows how far we have fallen as a society.

Fantasy I"m afraid, in past crashes this has never happened because people don"t want to touch property, everyone looking to buy a property already lives somewhere!

https://www.realyse.com/resources/news/new-build-homes-profitability-squeeze-uk

I said worrying times. Do you disagree with that statement? Unemployment going up (AI), increased cost of living, higher mortgage rates, increased global systemic risks (war/climate). You’d be daft not to be worried 😂
yes property prices need to come down but there are real consequences to this and let’s face it it’s not those that can afford to absorb a bit of loss that will be hit hardest. It’s those that were sold cheap credit and stupid homebuyer schemes who will be stuck.

Do you have any scope to make space on one of the bedroom floors for a proper bathroom? Sounds like the plumbing is there so some stud walls and a bit of a reconfigure could make a huge difference.

If people are worried about the planet they can stop flying and driving everywhere all the time, if property prices crash hard before the planet blows up I will be satisfied LOL.

It's only just been refitted 2 years ago and would make the other double a lot smaller.

Not sure a bath there would add much value tbh (there's already a shower/sink and loo) then downstairs has bath/sink/loo. That and I'm not sure I could face even more diy/mess

At least two more increases, possibly three, next year are now looking likley.
Add to that that the Bank of England now think inflation will climb all the way back to 5% again !!!
Bloody awful times ahead for anyone hoping to downsize or cash out - but equally some great opportunities for new entrants.
The big problem will be for people who have already stretched on borrowing - when purchase prices were also at a peak.

Stock markets getting very volatile last night, PPT intervening in Asia allegedly.

House prices hit record highs in 2022 thanks to mortgage rates under 2%

Now mortgage rates are over 5% house prices will have to come down

There is a stalemate at the moment between sellers asking 2022 prices and what buyers can afford

Either interest rates fall or house prices do, and with inflation predicted at 5% next year it wont be interest rates falling

So in answer to the question market will worsen, very little reason to believe things will improve in the short term

What level do you see for mortgage rates?

Hanging around 10% above or below where they are now for the next few years atleast

Sellers are being ridiculous though, not pricing houses appropriately, still remembering good old days when 2 year fixes were 2%..

They won't. Unfortunately we're likely to see further stealth taxes in spring statement.

Many people are too young, or have selective memories when it comes to their house "value", they want to believe that those rates were some sort of normal that we have to return to at some point.

I'm not sure I fully understand you. Do you mean a flat supply as in buyers are very price sensitive or a constant, regular supply of houses next year, meaning that some will adjust their asking price downwards? Or do you mean flat as in depressed, which doesn't seem to fit with the rest of the comment? You haven't mentioned the demand side of the equation at all.

My opinion is that actual transaction prices will fall next year and continue to do so after that. I think that demand will continue to wane overall due to overall unaffordability secondary to the many pressures on people's £££. I think there is a good chance of a severe recession starting in 27, and more job losses than we have already seen, which would obviously cause more pressure on housing. During a downturn in housing, some people will definitely try to 'wait it out' (some have already been attempting this since 2022!) but others will need to move and those people will set the actual values.

It's possible that this government may do something as stupid as the Tories did wrt SDLT, who knows. That would definitely increase transactions, as it did during the Covid pandemic but not so much if sellers again take it as a green light to increase their asking prices again. This worked when rates were zero and when people weren't able to spend on other things. The current situation is different.

I agree with this, the poor economic outlook, the fall in prices (no idea on the %, which will vary), and definitely the advice in your final sentence.

I agree with this too, although I think Fred Harrison is well respected overall, isn't he?

What won't do what?

Agreed but presenting your property in as best condition as possible will increase the likelihood someone will buy it over a property that looks cluttered and has scratched paintwork. It's the psychology of "this property has been looked after". This, in addition to correct price for the current market. It's the complete package.

In the current market buyers will be choosy. The only way you are going to sell a property with layout issues is to price it at a point where it will be such a bargain that someone will overlook the layout issues. Estate agents are probably not being realistic with you about what you can expect to achieve. If you need to sell to relocate then you may have to drop the price drastically.

Well yes, but many of those that are marketing asking prices that way may not actually become sellers. Loads like that in my area sitting advertised for lengthy periods - without a buyer. Reality will adjust their expectations eventually - but they may still not actually sell, they may choose to, or are simply forced to stay put. Its a slow process.

@Orchidgrower ”Estate agents are probably not being realistic with you about what you can expect to achieve. If you need to sell to relocate then you may have to drop the price drastically.”

Nah. Just become an ‘accidental landlord’,

UK house prices fall at fastest pace in three years

www.thetimes.com/article/5e1d0151-b6ab-4db8-9d53-66b8afe6fc02?shareToken=09b8c6bfaeb6c01b0b91cffd8735f0da