Crystal ball request - will the markets improve or worsen?

[Destiny123]

I listed my house in June, about to change agents next week as bit sold with 1x price drop.

I don't need to move till Sept 2027 when my relocation expenses expires, but equally a long commute a few days a week is less ideal too

Don't know whether to delist and try again in the better weather or whether things are only going to get worse so better with big mger price drops now.. any thoughts pls

Did you check the show? Here's a snapshot of listings. January will always be increasing from the near zero point of Christmas, but the peak is always March, etc.

Yea the new agent I've chosen says yes boxing day click rate goes up 400% (divorce threats, need bigger house, bored), but apparently it doesn't translate into new sales. 3 months tie in will give me spring relist option too

This is what I would have said with my crystal ball too. If rates go up, more people will put off moving.

These have not been boom months for years, the "boom" was all about cheap mortgage debt and people just not properly thinking through the consequences of over-borrowing at zero rates.

And more people will be expecting proper price cuts in line with market reality.

And more people having to sell regardless.

Massive boom from 1% mortgages means massive drop at 5% mortgages. That increase in credit cost hasn't even started to show up in sales prices yet.

To borrow the same amount now as we did 5 years ago on the exact same terms is 1600 a month instead of 900

To pay the same monthly we would only be able to borrow 60% of what we did before. That 40% difference has to come from somewhere. Either drop in house price, buy a cheaper house, or pay the added payment for the same house.
Will have to be option 1 or 2 as people are tapped out

Exactly, you can"t wait for the "spring bounce" that never comes year after year, eventually people have to move on with their lives.

Next year is forecast a "flat market" unless something insane is announced by govt.

I really don’t think house prices will fall substantially rather than just not rise at all so with inflation there is a price drop in real terms. Most people can’t see past the fact that their house is worth less rather than how good a fall in house prices would do for the economy.

Who has made that forecast?
The forecasts of the estate agents/banks/central banks have been consistently wrong in the last several years.

I think your only absorbing/reading forecasts from vested interests and ignoring the bigger picture.
The market will likley fall next year, its already happening and will get worse for a whee while yet. The government would like to "announce something insane" to prop the market - but the tool bag for that this time is completely empty..

This really isn't rocket science. Look at direction of inflation, interest rates, taxation, gdp growth, etc. What do you think will fundamentally change for house prices to start increasing again..stamp duty holiday?

I should let @rainingsnoring answer for themselves but I suspect the question was why would prices remain flat and not FALL.

Exactly as @XVGN says, I am questioning the flat, as opposed to a falling market forecast. I'm also questioning these mainstream forecasts in general. Unfortunately, @GinaRevva hasn't replied linking this alleged forecast. I have no idea what they mean by the government doing something 'insane' either!

My comment was about the market. As in what will the supply and demand of houses coming onto the market look like. It is expected to be flat next year which is the amount of houses actually coming on the market. This may have an inpact on the prices that people ask who do put their house on the markt as they may need to sell so are more open to a lower price but people who dont need to move will stay put and ride the storm.
My sources are provided through work and the information thats been shared with staff and other estate agents/conveyancers

If gov announced a stamp duty hol it would be insane but people would move and the market would be bouyant but that wont happen so the market will be flat and boring.

This is really interesting that you’re hearing this through work. I’m guessing you’re an agent or work in some capacity for an agent.

I thought there was a higher than usual number of houses for sale nationally? I’m sure there was a bbc article about this recently. At the same time you say people may have to sell so might be willing to accept a lower price. Putting those two things together to me sounds like a downward trajectory rather than a flat trajectory, but maybe it’s area dependent?

did they share any stats with you?

I should say that I really hope it isn’t a downward trajectory. But I’m concerned due to mortgage costs. We are chain free (sold earlier this year) but require a mortgage. As someone above said we will be paying significantly more for the same mortgage so have discussed buying a smaller house instead.
its not fun being stuck in negative equity so I hope you are right Gina!

BoE has now upped the rate and states unless Iran war ends ‘it does not seem likely to be the last increase’.
i fear it won’t be flat and boring next year. Worrying times.

I think we're just at the start of a longish slide in prices- rates going up, cost of living up, uncertainty and lay offs in the jobs market.

Pros and cons to this of course- it'll be good for FTBs and upsizers. Frankly housing costs have been inflated for years due to cheap credit and upwards pressure from EA pricing. Something is fundamentally wrong in an economy where a young person on a decent wage can't afford a home in large parts of the country without parental help. So a 25% slide in prices over a few years will be a positive thing overall, but I wouldn't make any decisions in the hope of a quick bounce, nor would I want to go to full stretch on borrowing in this market.

Interest rates have just been increased to 4%!

There's potentially an agreement against falling as there a structural demand issue that may prevent steep declines.

What do you mean by this please?

There's fundamentally a housing shortage in the UK, which mean demand will never fall off a cliff. This will support price floors.

I'm not sure I buy into that. There's probably a shortfall of some types of property in some areas, but we also notice over-supply of new build flats in London and new build housing estates in NW where properties are vacant for years. Add in the upcoming "exit" of baby boomers from the market and I think that supply is fine.

Prices are predicted to slide down 30%+ over the next 4 years (by the infamous Fred Harrison).