It will go down.
Let’s not insult our own intelligence: the focus revaluing Bands F, G and H isn’t a 'review', it’s a revenue strategy. Redraw the boundary, expand the tax base, and call it reform. Mark my words it is a slippery slope, so hardly a coincidence these whole bands are suddenly in the firing line. The plan is obvious: quietly redraw the lines, pull in a whole load of people (who breathed a slight of relief when the budget was announced) then act surprised when the net inevitably gets wider. And let’s be honest, this isn’t housing policy, it’s a straight-up revenue raid with better PR and a catchy little dog whistling ear worm. Because nothing sounds better that than the government sticking it to the 'rich'.
Worse still, it’s not even money being raised to fix local problems. The money won’t stay in the communities being hit hardest. It’ll be sucked straight into the central government black hole, disappearing into debt, deficits and a broken, leaking welfare budget. It wont fix a single road, school or housing shortage where it was raised let alone touch the social care budget that is killing most LAs.
If the government genuinely wanted to tackle property wealth and affordability, there’s an obvious solution: charge Capital Gains Tax on sales, across all bands. That hits real gains and real windfalls, without punishing people just for staying where they are. After all, the owners of £2m+ houses are not what’s stopping first-time buyers getting on the ladder. The point of sale is the only moment you actually know what a house is worth. Real money, real buyer, no guesswork. Everything else is just speculative nonsense with a Treasury logo slapped on it.
And if we’re suddenly so serious about targeting “£2m+ property wealth”, why is there radio silence on the biggest unearned windfalls of all? What about people who bought council houses for a fraction of their value, then watched them double, triple, or more on the open market? Or those who’ve sat still for five years and seen their house rise £200k to £300k+ for doing absolutely nothing? That is pure, unearned wealth. No risk. No graft. No downside. Yet somehow that kind of windfall is politically untouchable. There is radio silence because that where we are heading. Getting buy in to tax at £2m has open the door to widening the target because in UK tax policy, 'targeted' almost always means 'first'. Just ask anyone paying VAT on essentials such as energy or still repaying a student loan at 50. But don’t worry, this time it’s definitely different…🙄
Funny how “unfair housing wealth” only becomes a crisis once other people have it. Until then it’s Right-to-Buy miracles, dependent children owning their own home to free up money for expensive second homes, forgotten rental properties and the occasional eviction for good measure.
The housing crisis at the bottom end isn’t being caused by people sitting in £2m homes. It’s being driven by chronic under-supply, planning constraints, high interest rates, weak real wage growth, and financial institutions. None of that is fixed by punishing the top end. In fact, slapping a mansion tax on high-value homes is more likely to gum up the market, slow everything down, and seize up chains, making it harder, not easier, for properties to filter down.
To add insult to injury a mansion tax doesn’t take into account what you have actually spent improving your property. Buy at £900k, spend £400k renovating + put an effort in though the years to add value, and the response is simply: “Nice house. Pay up.” No allowance for build costs. No recognition of real investment. No distinction between paper inflation and real gain. Basically just judgement and contempt for all owners whilst a political gun is held to their head to pay for the incompetence of successive governments.
I am in no doubt that those who currently live in homes that attract the mansion are the test case and they are just keeping seats warm for the rest of us.