What will happen to the property market long term

[Turtlez]

What are peoples estimations for the housing market over the next 5 years, in terms of house prices, interest rates etc? Google seems to suggest interest rates will be dip a little around 2026 but they weren’t expecting them to be at the rates they are now. Do you think property prices will significantly fall for a long period of time?

Yes I am answering the question which is about house prices not interest rates

Turtlez the govt wants to keep good house prices as it is a vote catcher

Fair enough.

Heavy real terms falls in areas in which leverage has been used to buy properties at higher multiples of salaries. Other areas of less intense falls where interest rate speculation has been less egregious. Nominal falls everywhere.

Overall house price inflation is the result of an unprecedented increase in the money supply over the last 20 years or so - an attempt to create a mirage of wealth and happy voters. Blair and Brown were masters at this and enjoyed most of the early benefits. All major central banks complied quite beautifully in the monetary experiment.

Could never last forever, was fascinating to watch the greed unfold though, dictated by bonds markets in the main.

Overall house price inflation is the result of an unprecedented increase in the money supply over the last 20 years or so - an attempt to create a mirage of wealth and happy voters.

brilliantly put. the amount of people dumbfounded by how poor they are since interest rate hikes! instead it’s created so much greed and all you see are sellers thinking they can demand whatever they want for absolutely crap buildings called “home”.

it’s only going to get worse. Uk is in serious debt and now supporting genocide in Gaza and there goes more tax payers money! Nothing has changed over the last 20 plus years. Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, Palestine. This government vomit money we don’t have at these “wars” and has blood on its hands while ordinary people will now get the biggest financial shock of their lives.

Bloomberg just now - "10 Year Yield now at same level as during the Truss budget, bond market is pricing higher inflation" Great for house prices but many people are going to suffer unfortunately.

"Overall house price inflation is the result of an unprecedented increase in the money supply over the last 20 years or so - an attempt to create a mirage of wealth and happy voters. Blair and Brown were masters at this and enjoyed most of the early benefits. All major central banks complied quite beautifully in the monetary experiment."

Exactly, that train has now left the station though and isn`t coming back.

Is any political party willing to grasp the nettle of displeasing the growing number of older voters with good property ownership let alone pensions

They could freeze state pensions though I don’t think they will as older people are more likely to vote than younger people.

But what realistically could they do re older people & property ownership?

The price of money will take care of it now I reckon, although as we have seen in the past politicians do love their central banks to fire up the printers when a large demographic gets twitchy. Ideally politicians stay well away...and it would be nice to abolish the centralised banks too.

Fortunately this time the inflation cat is out of the bag across most developed economies, so the experiment (of monetary largesse) is pretty much over. It was hidden quite admirably for many years in house price inflation, which was good inflation, right?! 😋

Yep, we saw what happens now with the Truss budget, but the 10 Year Yield yesterday hit the same highs as during the Truss period and the media seemed strangely quiet on the matter?