What will happen to the property market long term

[Turtlez]

What are peoples estimations for the housing market over the next 5 years, in terms of house prices, interest rates etc? Google seems to suggest interest rates will be dip a little around 2026 but they weren’t expecting them to be at the rates they are now. Do you think property prices will significantly fall for a long period of time?

That article is nearly a year old and reports on the market after the Liz Truss budget debacle.

That`s correct, and as I said it is an example of what happens when mortgage debt gets more expensive, suddenly demand drops and people just stay in their present accommodation.

Lol Crashy, you said Crashing even harder today when you posted that link.

It’s ok to make mistakes er…occasionally.

Op what will happen is what always happens it will increase, maybe some small regional dips, some flat periods, but ultimately in 5 years prices will be a lot higher than today,

Yes, the Chinese market, did you actually read the post I replied to?

"Um, have you not seen what's happening globally including in China? Their property market has crashed."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/china-property-creditors-face-worsening-restructuring-terms-as-sector-recovery-hopes-sour/ar-AA1i2W3R

What will drive the increases now that interest rates are returning to normal and could spike higher?

No my eyes glaze over when you mention China for the 100th time

I didn`t mention China, it was the poster I replied to, but it does boggle my mind that people can churn out "advice" on forums and not really be tuned into how the global economy is all interlinked, there was a poster here recently that seemed perplexed about how Japan could influence their mortgage rate! Not something everyone would know but relatively basic stuff surely?

You boggle my mind sometimes Crashy, I think it’s because of how awfully intelligent you are compared to most of us little Mumsnetters.

Slight generalisation there, there are plenty of informed people posting on here.

Anyone saying prices can’t crash, look at other major economies. It’s also happened here before.

Look too at what has happened in the bond market -35% on ‘low’ risk 15 year debt. QE has changed the landscape.

At best the market will stagnate. Forced sellers will suffer. Nothing around here is moving unless it’s a unicorn property.

I think that in real terms after taking inflation into account house prices will be lower for the next 3/4 years and that can only be a good thing. I don’t think prices will crash, just stagnate. We need to make housing more affordable.

The UK market has never really done "stagnate" has it? It either crashes or goes ahead full steam, honestly cant see the unwinding of the biggest financial experiment in history leading to a flatline, I think all the house price gains of the last 15 or 20 years will unwind as wages wont take up the slack due to COL increases. Everything happening globally is pointing to inflation and higher interest rates.

Interesting comments here, good to see what everyone’s thoughts are.

FTB here. Recently bought Edinburgh. Close to city centre. I can’t say for other areas in Scotland but certainly Edinburgh prices are not going down.

Sorry, what do you mean by natural population?

Why did it crash? Isn't it a huge growing economy? Or have I missed something? And aren't birth rates on the increase too?

Like previous "crashes", it'll be all over the place. Different locations, different types of home, and different price ranges all act differently during the dips. Some areas/types stay steady, others crash, others continue to grow. There is no consistency as to how it affects different properties. It also affects different regions at different times, with some areas picking up after a dip at the same time even nearby areas which didn't dip start to fall! It'll just be a few years of chaos, uncertainty, plenty of winners and losers, but none of that with any real logic nor consistency. More of a roulette wheel really. The only guaranteed "winners" are the ones who can comfortably sit tight and ride it out. If you find yourself having to move for whatever reason, it's really luck of the draw how badly (or well) you'll get through it.

You're right, other factors are in play. One of them is that much of the land you see is unavailable for building on, because of who owns it which is connected to the distribution of land ownership i.e a small number of people owning rather a lot.

Don't forget, we do need rather a lot for both the sake of a healthy environment for humans and non-human animals, and food!

I'm buying a house ATM, my first, for a few reasons:

• Using large savings earning internet that I'm sure a house will over time equal or beat
• Mortgage, thanks to deposit is close to 2/3 of what I'm paying in rent despite current internet rates
• If desperate, at current room rental prices, I can rent out a room and cover most of the mortgage

It seems a no-brainer, in my circumstances at least. I'm betting on conditions having peaked & started to dip with a 3 year deal. Historically, in the last 20 years, my understanding is rates have peaked at 8% so shouldn't get dramatically worse.

I've held back some of what could've been in the deposit as security against problems with house, my circumstances and interest rates. I figured, in a good scenario, I can spend it on reducing my mortgage debt between deals. Even I don't trust my judgement! It's an educated gamble, but it's still a gamble!

Yes, there are books about this, "Who owns Britain" was a well known one a few years ago? Basically about six families own all the land in Scotland or something, but TBH I don`t want to manage thousands of acres in The Highlands so I am glad someone is doing it!

You might want to be interested in what they do and for what purpose. That impacts on what we can do with the rest of the land, and our quality of life more generally because all things are connected.

Then there's things like access rights as well and probably other things. Access to places closer to home is more important, day to day, but everyone loves an adventure and there's ways to allow that and produce income from individuals and the state in exchange for their services

Best of luck! 😁

The past recent low interest rates
will not be seen again for years and will remain at their norm of c 3 to 5 % Depends on supply and demand and what govt does Also where you live is crucial

How is where you live crucial fur interest rates? Assuming you live in the U.K.?

I'm pretty sure that's answering the question about what the market will do (which is area-dependent), rather than how where you live affects interest rates.