House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

I think you pointed me to that show last week. It really is useful. They do gloss over some things but it's fascinating to see the numbers and regional differences. It's also brilliant that you can download and keep his PowerPoint slides. It's going to save me an awful lot of manual work in the future.

I am sorry you lost your dogs, especially so close together. I love lurchers.

well it's certainly getting harder to tell them apart

You're very welcome. I just hope I didn't get you into trouble with your other half!

Nationwide reporting YoY price falls off -5.3% in August. Falls accelerating and getting close to Lloyds base case. But remember that this is mashed up national average and has no real bearing on individual markets - some of which will be up and some down by a lot more.

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/august-sees-further-weakness-in-house-prices

My DH this morning, said that this is only the beginning x

I think I agree with him to be honest, it's going to get worse. Hopefully though for a relatively short period. Maybe a year or two of falls.

Please tell me his name's not Charlie.

No, it is Zander. Why do you ask? x

Sorry. It's an in-joke on here. Charlie is a marmite commentator who expects falls of 35% (ranging from 15% to 50% based on area) peak-to-trough.

That report from Nationwide is really worrying. They have a vested interest in the housing market being buoyant and healthy. Their business depends upon it. So if they are saying prices already down by over 5% the truth is probably worse :(

It's not really worrying given this comment

"“Nevertheless, a relatively soft landing is still achievable, providing broader economic conditions evolve in line with our (and most other forecasters’) expectations."

So place your bets on whether most other forecasters are right or a group of mumsnetters.

I watched the stats show last night. The EA's are pretty comfortable with what's going on. The number of new instructions is running at the same level as the 17/18/19 average. Fall thru's a picking up and it's taking longer to sell. The main message was that EA's have got to get deluded sellers off their books or get them to reduce prices.

BTW, anyone from Crawley, Bournemouth or Shrewsbury may want to watch a recent show to see how their local EA's are performing.

😂

The faux naiveté kills me 😂

I am not sure I follow? x

Don't worry dear x

On a positive note. NS&I are now offering a 1y bond (can't get your money out) at 6.2%. Anyone thinking of buying (or trading up) in the next few years can get a double-wammy by growing their deposit there while the prices on what they want to buy may fall.

There are three exact houses across the road from me. One sold for 490k in 2021 it had been rented out for years and needed cosmetic work in every room kitchen and bathroom were the original from when it was built around 30 years ago. The new owners have had all new double glazing, kitchen and bathroom.

The one in the middle is an absolute show home and has an extension on the back so a second living room, they also have a landscaped garden with a really nice gazebo patio outdoor area, it was put on the market for 500k about 12 weeks ago. The price is now 485k.

Yep. A few months back I posed the question. Where are all these people who can afford to buy all these £500K+ homes? Obviously there are some around, but when you see the sheer number of £500K+ homes on the market you begin to realise that there won't be a buyer for every one.

Meanwhile smaller, more affordable homes will be less impacted (I forecast).

yes, although it does depend on the state of the market at a particular time eg those in expensive 2 bed London flats in the pandemic sometimes then moved to cheaper further out detached houses with gardens and had a lot of savings as had not been spending in the pandemic. Yet always the freehold 2 or 3 bed terraced/semi is likely to be the most in demand kind of place in my view. I used to say not new build until my son bought a very nice new build so I have slightly changed my views on those ones.

By chance just saw this in the FT today https://on.ft.com/3sG5FCe seconds after reading this thread "UK house prices shrink at fastest pace since 2009Average property price fell 5.3% annually in August as rising borrowing costs dent market "
That link ought to work even for non subscribers to the Financial Times

Round our way it's the 600K+ houses that aren't selling. Unfortunately, ours is one of those. We have reduced our price significantly but prices of the 400-500K aren't really reducing, so we risk being unable to buy anything!
Most sales seem to be happening (still slowly) in the 300-400K range in our area.

Sounds like buying that house could be a good opportunity for someone. Could maybe get it for about 450k.

My comment was to @Montbresia

I would be amazed if they went anywhere near early 2000s prices, particularly in London. Anyone waiting for that is going to wait wait for the rest of their lives. The fact that you are saying this, along with your postingname, rather undercuts your "insights" I think.