House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

I am not talking about the official indices, but what is happening in my corner of the world. Experience will vary for everyone so not trying to preach one way or the other.

Which was one of the points I made in my earlier post.
I think your perspective is probably skewed because you are looking at a high end corner of the market in the most expensive city in the country.

The economic experts at the OBR have published their forecast for house prices, in support of this week's autumn budget. See the bottom of the image for the years included.

They think - in Nov 2023 - that prices will rise 0.9% in 2023. WTF? They expect prices to fall 4.7% in 2024 before recovering strongly. Time shall tell what planet these experts are from.

It’s looking good for our bet @XVGN based on that forecast at least!

Apart from possibly I’ve gone a bit too high with my prediction re house prices falling about 10% over the 2 year period 2023 & 2024😂

I’m surprised at the predicted rise for 2023. Nearly everything that comes on the market here ends up getting reduced and lots are still not selling.
The only properties that seem to be selling are in highly desirable areas and require no work so maybe the figures are skewed as these will always hold their value.
It does look like the next year may be a good time to buy even if price drops are not as steep as anticipated.

Haha. They obviously think that you are a nutter and I am a raving lunatic. But we won't let the OBR be the arbiter of our bet.

Karmatime · Today 09:12

I’m surprised at the predicted rise for 2023. Nearly everything that comes on the market here ends up getting reduced and lots are still not selling.”

Lots of under offer and sold boards here, NW coast. Most within a month or so.

@MrsSkylerWhite I’m on the south coast, practically London prices so I think interest rate rises have had more of an impact here.

Karmatime · Today 10:17
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@MrsSkylerWhite I’m on the south coast, practically London prices so I think interest rate rises have had more of an impact here”

We’re in a very naice coastal town, lots of million plus properties, still a healthy market.

You must be on a different part of the NW coast to me. Loads sitting / being reduced.

I am trying to move house in Manchester. Things are still going to best and final and prices are def not going down

No indeed.

Where are you looking in Manchester?
we’re in south Manchester and the prices haven’t moved much up or down. The asking vs sold prices are mostly at asking or up to 3% over or under.

that's because Manchester is amongst many parts of the country still considered "affordable", unlike most of the south

@Newhousecrying we have offered on houses in chorlton and the city centre

Ah! Chorlton is like its own world. A few of my colleagues are looking to buy in Chorlton. All ‘young professionals’ with bank of mum and dad behind them and optimistic career progression ahead. Hope you get it sorted.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/homeowners-face-five-more-years-153618292.html

Even EAs are smelling the coffee, he waffles around the point at great length (must be difficult for them to articulate the end of their Golden Goose Ponzi Scheme, LOL) but gets the main points over - mainly that EAs don`t make money from deluded sellers sitting on their books for years with no viewings.

https://propertyindustryeye.com/opinion-why-estate-agents-should-help-the-market-fall/

I would say most of the "experts" especially if younger, are carrying big mortgage debt, they are completely biased in the nonsense they pump out for that reason, they can`t predict what will happen over five years, there could be a massive inflation shock and bond market meltdown meaning mortgage rates double for all they know. The best way to protect yourself is to have the smallest amount of mortgage debt possible.

@CrashyTime I wondered if he was paid by the word

Yep, more words = more mortgage debt tokens.

https://thenegotiator.co.uk/purplebricks-final-death-throes-revealed-including-66p-share-offer/

There is no conspiracy and no one (bare govt and central banks) can materially influence the market. Having a « massive inflation shock » if this is even a remote possibility in the low growth, aging world we re living in, would also amortise the debt so as long as one can serve its cost, remember that wages would roughly track inflation. In the meantime, one can also enjoy a suitable house, have stability and simply live while the other option consists of waiting angrily in a rental or at parents basement.

No, sentiment is a massive part of the recipe for a property bubble, the govt and CBs supply the basic ingredients - cheap debt and lack of lending regulation - the public have to bake the cake, and boy did they bake a big one this time! Not sure you are being serious TBH, we just had a big inflation shock, and it has resulted in people struggling with their mortgage debt, not the sunlit uplands of homeownership you describe? The person in their parents basement living for free is miles ahead financially of the average person carrying the burden of mortgage debt now. Remember, you can leave a basement, you can`t leave a mortgage debt.......

Lol re lack of lending regulation