House Prices

[LGBirmingham]

House prices still seem to be rising? Does anyone else think this?

@CrashyTime I am glad you think property is about to become much more affordable. It is nicer than the alternative that secure housing is dissappearing as a concept for many. I speak to the economists you quote who advise government because I work with them. They do not share your view

And someone who has a 60% mortgage or similar is a homeowner in my view as they hold significant equity. Denigrating those who do not own 100% of their property as not an owner ignores how much they do own. Also as long as they continue to pay, which most will, they are in one of the most protected and regulated classes of lending which exist. Contrast that with the stability of a renter and you will quickly see that advising people not to buy or labeling them as foolish for doing so is completely irresponsible

👏🏽

In my area anything coming on to the market is still at an all time high, at least 10% higher than what we were seeing during peak covid market madness.

I'm just not seeing these supposed falls at all.

Can you post the links to the economists I quoted.

What general area is that so we can have a look with PropertyLog (PropertyLog shows house price and rent increases as well as drops so it isn`t biased)

When was the last time you rented a property?

I have rented a little, last time was 20 years ago. I have managed many rentals as part of commercial property portfolios and seen an awful lot of notices to quit. Also I contributed to the consultation on rental reform. The economists who feed into the articles and statistics that are regularly quoted in your posts are all featured in the government consultation websites. Obviously it is massively outing to highlight individuals.

You don't need to have rented recently to recognise that 2 months' notice to leave a property you may have lived in for quite some time is not ideal. It is nonsense to suggest that a mortgage is renting from the bank in any commensurate pattern

"The economists who feed into the articles and statistics that are regularly quoted in your posts are all featured in the government consultation websites"

The links are there to show the direction of travel in the MSM, the types of article they are choosing to publish, that greatly affects sentiment, and presumably the stats are still the stats regardless of which economist they phone up for comment? Your connection to the economists isnt really relevant and doesnt make you any more informed than the next person who keeps an eye on bond markets etc.

I'd rather pay £1200 per month towards a mortgage for 10 years than pay £1200 in rent for 10 years and have nothing to show for my £144,000 except grey hair from the stress of rental insecurity.

A family member has had a flat at the cheaper end of the market in London for sale for a few months with no offers despite a drop in price. Things seem very slow.

Sure, but a smart renter would pay 6 or7 hundred a month and save 5 or 6 hundred a month, a mortgage debt holder doesn`t have a choice, they either pay what the bank letter tells them to pay or they lose the house.

Buyers have seen their affordability limits cut massively, things will be slow until prices start dropping.

I don't know what reality you're living in, Crashy, but it's not the real world if you think renters can secure a property for half the UK average cost and save hundreds of pounds. Savings which will be decreasing in value due to inflation.

But that's fine, you do you.

You see mortgage debt holder, I see smart home owner.

You dont really believe that the average renter in the UK is paying out 1200 pm for a flat do you? Maybe on benefits with a big family in a 4 bedder or in London where a lot of people dont seem to know any better, but all over the UK? Come on. All I know is that a lot of people took on mortgage debt in the last few years and now that it is costing closer to normal market rate they wish they hadn`t bothered. When was the last time you rented?

Of course not all mortgage holders have unmanageable levels of debt but a worrying percentage do now due to the rapid and significant rise in rates.
What is shocking is that successive governments and central bankers have allowed this preventable situation to develop, meaning that huge numbers of the population that they serve have no secure housing and also that the basic necessity of housing has become simply unaffordable for many. The rental market, both social and private could have been designed very differently if there had been political will.

Derbyshire, specifically SK13, SK14.

"For September 2023, the data shows that the average rental price for a new tenancy in the UK was £1,276"

An increase of 10% this year alone. Much better to pay a mortgage, if possible. Rent is wasted money if you have a deposit and qualify for a mortgage, whatever house prices are doing.

It sounds like you have no experience with the private rental sector. Or any experience buying/selling property.

@CrashyTime why are you so worried about those that can't afford mortgage payments/ predicting all sorts off them but not at all concerned about those in vulnerable long term renting? For their lives, which is untested so far at the retirement stage

@CrashyTime in my area of the Midlands the rents you mention as only for huge houses or London would be low

Exactly - it’s very dismissive of Crashy to say people in London will pay £1200 rent for a flat because they don’t “know any better” when actually they have no choice but to pay extortionate rent & that would be cheap even for a flat there.

Crashy, I believe you see things in very black & white terms (renting good/buying bad) but it really is a lot more nuanced than that for most people who actually do have to choose one or the other. And neither choice feels like a good one at the moment!

The latest RICS survey is out. Very useful reading.

https://www.rics.org/news-insights/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey

They seem to be forecasting a 2% fall next year. I'll stick my neck out and say that they are a multiple of 5 out. If anyone would like to guess at a more accurate forecast than the industry experts (> economists) then please go ahead and we can check back next year.

Nobody is good at forecasting they always wrong. You cannot predict the future, best bet its to ignore the bullshit and get on with it. House buying has just "gone back to normal" from covid when people went insane and bought any old shithole for over asking. The good, well priced houses will always sell for asking price. The over priced rubbish will not. From what I am seeing prices are pretty much flat, neither up nor down much.

Ok I’ll play.

My prediction is for a 5% fall next year.

As always, this is an an average as there will be regional variations.