Can’t wait for the big crash

[HPcrashingdown]

I can’t wait for prices to come back down. It’s absolutely ridiculous how mental prices have gone. I will be just waiting with my hefty deposit ready to buy my forever home. It will be great.

Sigh ...

If someone who could previously afford a £400k house can no longer afford that due to interest rate rises, and their maximum is now £300k guess what? They aren't going to be getting the £400k house for 25% less. They're going to be widening their search and will end up getting a £300k house for £300k. That £400k house will be bought by someone else who can afford it. Someone who might previously have been looking at a £550k house.

Oh, and those chains? They have people at the top. Those people are rich already. They're not affected by the retail mortgage market - they own their houses outright and buy and sell for cash. They are interested in tax avoidance, exchange rate fluctuations and inheritance planning. They really don't need to factor in the thought processes of some FTB scrabbling together a £300k mortgage ...

We are considering a move, for retirement, but there's no timetable dictating the plan. And there are no houses for sale, at any price, in our postcode. They change hands about every 10/12 years. So I wouldn't expect a big change in prices any time soon, frankly.

Those that stay put will surely be those that can’t afford to move. Falling house prices are good news for anyone wanting to get on the ladder but also good for those looking to upsize.

It’s not true to say those that can only afford a £300k house will now be looking at £300k houses - except that houses that were £325k in the summer are now on the market around £300k around here. Presumably also it’s not just the non-sellers opinion on the value of their property that dictates it’s value - if they’re looking to remortgage, the bank doesn’t ask the non-seller’s opinion on the house’s value, does it?

Fair enough. So > or < 10%.
I think we will see what you would call a crash then. I would expect prices to have fallen by > 10% from their peak in July/ August 22 when we eventually get the data through for Summer 23 and to continue to fall for a year, possibly several years after that. They are already down annually and data continues to be very negative with lots of forecasters (including estate agents who will want to be super optimistic) publishing forecasts of price falls this year and next.

'@Mark19735 no one cares about your house or it's price, or your wage rise or investment portfolio or pension. Or Disney holidays or replacement windows 😂'
Exactly. I think most of this is fantasy because of the very poor level of understanding of basic economic facts in the comments, repeated again and again without any ability to understand what multiple other posters are saying.

@Mark19735 -no one is interested in buying your house nor your property portfolio. Your house isn't on the market, it doesn't affect the market but it WILL be affected by house price falls. If you (or anyone else) needs to remortgage and prices have fallen 20% based on comparator sales, it will be valued lower by the bank whatever you delusions you may have about its value.
Buyers will not blink first because they cannot afford to. As @Lightscribe says, affordability has fallen off a cliff. That is what causes prices falls. We have had falls in 1990 and 2008 when sellers obviously did 'blink first'. It has already started happening here (check Nationwide data from last week) and it is happening in multiple other countries as already mentioned. You can shout as loudly as you like about your house and your (deluded) beliefs but the data says otherwise. Basic maths says otherwise.

I think it will be about 10% peak, around summer maybe a little more. I expect prices to stagnate for a couple of years after that.
We are all guessing based on available data. Some people on here have extreme views on both sides, I expect somewhere in the middle.

For someone who claims to only rarely frequent the HPC website, you have the exact same posting style as all of them. State as fact something that is subjective. Call anyone who disagrees stupid. Rinse. Repeat. Meanwhile ... all those who get on with their lives, buy houses, pay off their mortgages, all seem to do OK despite all this so-called 'evidence' to the contrary. Meanwhile all the INCELs are still renting their bedsits wishing doom on everyone else. LOL.

There's nobody 'needing' to re-mortgage - all the current owners already have a mortgage. Their fixes or trackers might revert to SVR at some point, but the mortgage already exists. We can sit out any corrections for 20+ years if we want. How long can you wait? Was Nationwide's YoY drop of -1.1% really worth putting your life on hold for a year for? Seriously?

Let's chat again in 12 months.

if You you really want to make that deposit go far, then buy Bitcoin with it now, then when the prices crash, your deposit will have increased by 10 fold. You’ll be laughing OP.

I don't see why people on either side have to get so worked up tbh. We're all just looking at the available data and making predictions.

Certainly no need to call people incels or any other offensive name.

People waiting to buy or trade up will be hoping for a correction. People who bought recently, are downsizing or who just attach a great deal of importance to the value of their home will be hoping it doesn't happen or isn't significant.

FWIW a 1% annual drop, in a period of 10% inflation, is quite significant and indeed mainstream media are reporting it as the biggest fall for a decade or so. It comes on the back of unprecedented recent gains of course.

Is this directed at me @Mark19735 ? Why are you so obsessed with HPC? Why do you mentioning them when no one else is interested. I thought you were a contented home owner with a large salary rise and a property portfolio? If so, why do you care so much about HPC? It makes no sense if what you state is true.

I haven't called or insinuated that anyone else is stupid at all. I have politely disagreed with two or three other posters, as they have with me, but they haven't posted anything like the degree of nonsense that you have. You not only post economically illiterate noise persistently but also troll hunt and call people rude terms not based on anything but your own insecurity.

I'm more than happy to reconvene in 12 months. We will see if there have been further falls or if all the sellers held on as you suggest.

@Londongent time will tell. As you say, we all have individual opinions depending on what we have read, personal experience.

I think people have lost sight of the original post, which is someone with a deposit waiting for the prices to crash so they can buy for the first time. I don’t think prices will crash to the degree that some think they will. I also think that we will see a slow down with people only moving because they have to and not because they want to.

I personally think that you can be forever sitting on a deposit waiting for a ‘crash’.

No it’s one of the hpc website people trying to deliberately talk down the market and introduce uncertainty.

Agreed. They are so obvious & boring with the same dire predictions and the same personal attacks on people like Mark who challenge them, accusing others of being economically illiterate etc while proposing no great alternative to home ownership themselves. Because let's face it, we're paying big mortgages or high rents in this country and only one of those options gets better as time goes on.

I remember them all salivating when the pandemic hit and they thought house prices would drop dramatically. They've been hopping onto Mumsnet for years trying this.

And I would love to see sensible affordable housing for everyone. In fact I devote a lot of my week both professionally and in a volunteer capacity to trying to help deliver this.

Oh I realise that. They have used that bollocks to spark a discussion and send their mates in to tell us silly mummies where we are wrong.

And yet ... it's only ever the HPC crowd who come over and insult us, with their 'GCSE maths' and 'economically illiterate' jibes. None of us are ever uncivil. Exasperated, perhaps. But not uncivil.

You don't know anything about us, our incomes, our mortgages, our LTV ratios, how long we've fixed for ... or anything that would indicate even the slightest financial jeopardy. All you've got is your opinion. Which you are entitled to, of course. But speculating about what our motives must be, rather than asking us and taking our responses at face value, says a lot more about you than it does us.

I've got a much better question for you - why don't you ask the HPC admins why they keep banning anyone who articulates the counterfactual argument? What has happened to all the people who used to post sense over there? All that site has got left is the same tired old voices reverberating round the echo chamber. What is it you're all so afraid of exactly? That, despite your commendable passion, you might .... have been wrong all along? Yikes!

If you are going to criticise at least show some balance. There haven't been any personal attacks on Mark. If you think there have been, please report the post to MNHQ.
On the other hand, he has been repeatedly calling people Incels, accusing people of lying and troll hunting. Is that polite and reasonable? On a previous thread, there were multiple personal attacks on DHB and you said nothing. I agree that this house price crash thing is annoying but there was still no need for the personal attacks nor to take them so personally.

The truth is that you are happy for people to be attacked if you disagree with them and that you actually want houses to remain too expensive for many in this country. I find that attitude as if not more unpleasant than people wanting a crash so that might have a chance to buy after years of saving.

@Mark19735 -I don't think using terms like 'Incel' or accusing people of lying repeatedly is civil.

You have bragged regularly about your property portfolio, your pay rise, your share portfolio, your holiday in Disney Land, how your house isn't for sale, etc.
No one is interested in your financials but you have voluntarily written all these things.

'But speculating about what our motives must be, rather than asking us and taking our responses at face value, says a lot more about you than it does us.'

This section about speculating about motives must surely be irony. It is you who has been speculating about the motives of any poster who thinks that house prices are likely to fall pretty significantly and accusing us all of being on HPC.
I can't speak for anyone else but I personally haven't talked about house price falls until relatively recently on MN or anywhere else. This time, I have read kept abreast of a lot of data and have formed my own opinion based on that. As I have already said, the government/ BOE may try to intervene and that would reduce the fall but, at present, a continued fall is inevitable.

Here are a couple of other people who don't appear to be on HPC who have similar views backed up with real data instead of speculation and wishful thinking. Enjoy!

Does anyone really think the obscene pandemic gains over the last 3 years have been a good thing? It's pure greed and I'm a homeowner , the only people I feel slightly sorry for are the FTBs the rest of people with large amounts of equity for doing sod all I don't feel sorry for. I'm wanting to trade up and if prices fall it's good for those wanting to move up the ladder.

I've also been to Disney world mark and have two properties I still want them to fall cause the price rises over the last 3 years have been utterly ridiculous.

Exactly, it's the FTB and people stuck in insecure rentals because prices are far too high that I have most sympathy with.

You accused him of being economically illiterate a few posts back. That is a personal insult

Lol!!....keep hoping .Less people will sell ,sitting tight with equity that swamps your deposit