Can’t wait for the big crash

[HPcrashingdown]

I can’t wait for prices to come back down. It’s absolutely ridiculous how mental prices have gone. I will be just waiting with my hefty deposit ready to buy my forever home. It will be great.

I’ve no more to say on the issue. I’ve explained from 2020 on here how QE, treasury yield curves work, the relation to inflation, disinflation, deflation and stagflation. I’ve explained that we would get inflation and that rate rises would occur before any ‘mini budgets’ (Strange that our mini budget is effecting the rest of the worlds interest rates too and already causing House price corrections there)

It’s totally within any one’s rights on here if they want to ignore the wider indicators and stay in a ‘safe space’ in regards to global economic issues. Young people however deserve a balanced view to consider that now may not be the best time to buy onto the market at peak prices and also at high rates.

If a house is a house to live in forever then it doesn’t matter. If however you are referring to ‘values’ and are referring to price movements then it becomes a financial asset and wider economic circumstances have to be considered. Echo chambers are irrelevant.

Lets take up Marks suggestion and see in 12 months time, perhaps then more serious discussion can be had without any baseless conjecture with with ‘pie in the sky’ counter arguments.

So ... I'll bite. This will be the first directly personal criticism I've made. Here goes:

@rainingsnoring doesn't properly read, digest, and reflect on other posters' posts before responding.

I quite clearly said that I didn't go to Disneyland. Won't be going. No Disneyland holiday.

"My spend on the family holiday to Disneyland I'm not taking the kids on this year will be zero."

So ... not bragging. I don't have a property portfolio either. I said I'd bought and sold many houses. Doesn't mean I have more than one right now. And everyone in my company is getting a pay rise, not just me. Most others in the sector too. The context being I was making the point that pay rises will mitigate the effects of the recent rises in interest rates. Context matters - but keep selectively quoting to try and sustain an argument, by all means.

I've never directly accused anyone on this forum of being an INCEL. I've pointed out a remarkable similarity in posting style between some contributors here and the type of rhetoric seen on HPC (and there's been some old 'friends' returning from other threads with a new name, too - welcome back!). I will happily admit that it is my opinion that most of the misogynists over on the HPC forum are INCELS, but apparently they are over there and not on here, right? So why would anyone be so triggered by this implication? I wonder, I wonder ...

As a point of order, INCEL is not an insult - it's a self-applied label of which they seem quite proud. It is the online behaviour of people who so self-identify that has given the term a bad reputation. But that's kinda my point ... everyone who disagrees with them is an idiot, or illiterate, or a troll, or an EA, or deluded. And whilst I'm none of those things, I do have a very nice house, that I am pleased I bought when I did, and I would strongly encourage anyone wondering about whether to buy a house to do so as soon as they can afford to. It's a lovely thing to have peace of mind and security. And it does seem to ward off bitterness and resentment, too. Which is nice.

Anything to do with buying a house in this country is obscene.

Ridiculous offer/buying/conveyancing system, over-inflated house prices, greedy sellers, buy to let parasites...

Yes, a crash would be a good thing. Will it happen? that's unlikely as too many people are profiteering from the current system and we have a lack of housing supply.

But if we had a crash then prices would go back to being realistically linked to salaries and we would no longer houses as a way to make money. Housing should be about having a roof over your head and seen as a basic right, not a money machine.

The majority of people don't benefit from high house prices. Young people can't buy and anyone who trades up will see any ''profit'' they have made from selling their home wiped out by the cost of their new purchase.

@Mark1973

''If someone who could previously afford a £400k house can no longer afford that due to interest rate rises, and their maximum is now £300k guess what? They aren't going to be getting the £400k house for 25% less. They're going to be widening their search and will end up getting a £300k house for £300k. That £400k house will be bought by someone else who can afford it. Someone who might previously have been looking at a £550k house.''

Too simplistic.

Plenty of houses where I am looking to purchase are in the £300K bracket and have been listed for months with no sales.

Usually these houses need work, not just cosmetic redecoration, and with the cost of materials/workmanship going up, people who have 300K as a maximum budget won't be able to spend the 20/30k on top that would be needed to get the houses up to scratch anymore. So if the sellers want to sale they have to reduce their price.

So you do have a to look at the wider context here. It is not just about interest rises/mortgages.

It is about the wider cost of living crisis and everything going up in price and how affects people's finances.

To suggest everything will be OK because everyone just has to trade down a bit is failing to see the bigger pictures.

Some people are just completely unable and unwilling to comprehend the fact that house prices will not always go up and that once you reach a level where so many people can't afford to buy a home anymore then you are heading for a correction.

I don’t know about obscene though it isn’t the easiest process. Yet when you first appeared on the property forums under this name a short while ago you were posting as someone trying to choose between 3 houses to buy? I don’t think you offered on any of them in the end.

The profit average people make in property isn’t too apparent when they are in their 20s/30s/40s etc. Houses cost a lot of money to pay for & maintain & it doesn’t get much easier if people keep trading up every few years, as I did. Where home ownership beats renting is when people become older and eventually have no mortgage to pay and no rent either. Plus an asset worth a lot of money that they can eventually downsize from to release capital or pass on to their children so they can have more financial security.

A small price correction will be a good thing for FTB & those moving up the ladder so would have benefits. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fall of about 10% over the next year. But I’ve seen prices rise & fall & rise again over the last 35 years. I’ve got a lovely mortgage free house now (not bragging just fact) so I’m glad I didn’t let worries about temporary price falls (which I did experience) stop me from house buying & selling.

@Mark19735

Why are you (and a couple of other pp) so obsessed with HPC? You don't believe there's going to be a crash, but appear to have spent a lot of time on there telling everyone so and have now been banned?

Do you also go on the flat Earth society websites and tell them they're wrong?

And serious religious groups? And any conspiracy theory groups you disagree with?

I've never heard of HPC website until you lot started going in about it, so I took a look yesterday and all it seems to be is talk about Russia and some guy posting pics of run down properties in the middle of Wales for £40k

Why does it trigger you so much?

And why do you find it so hard to believe that there are people who don't use HPC who also believe that the property market will correct itself?

I said on another thread that I think unfortunately the property section over here is getting traffic from House Prices Crash forum and the style of postings of some of them is getting some people’s backs up as there have been some of those posters who were very gleeful a few months ago and people losing their houses and they were to an extent stifling normal conversation about prices with their extreme views and general goading. I think one May have possibly been banned for a bit.

Those posts have been a bit toned down now but they get some posters back’s up still and they react in a way they probably wouldn’t usually. I think we are so used to having been divided artificially into 2 groups over so many things in recent years eg. Brexit, masks, vaccines that people are quick to go on the defensive and that’s what we see on here sometimes.

Sorry, what is HPC referring to?

House Price Crash Forum

Unfortunately it's not just FTB.
There were 33500 divorces in the first 7 months of last year, compared to 31000 the year before over the whole year.
Statistics out yet but it looks like no fault divorce has accelerated at, combined with stresses of lockdowns.
Especially in the case of 50/50 childcare, both couples with need a separate property with any equity left over split from previous sales.
So strictly speaking they are not FTB, but hopefully have some equity 4 deposit, and the rental market is saturated at the moment. It's a bit of a pickle. 😐

Even so if you bought before 2020 you will have significant amounts of equity even in a divorce. The boom was ridiculous and the government should never have enabled it. What comes after boom it's always bust. No way should I have technically earned 80k in a few years for just sitting in my house. It's unsustainable.

Tell me more about this guy who actually controls all of this ...

👀

"No way should I have technically earned 80k in a few years"

Except you haven't earned £80k. You had one house. You still have one house. Your net assets are exactly the same.

The rate of conversion of that one house into pounds sterling may have changed, but if you sold up today, banked the £80k and then reinvested the remainder, you'd end up with a smaller, shittier property. So your £80k wouldn't be a net gain in wealth, it would have been "paid for" by downsizing. And if you don't downsize, you don't have the £80k.

Jeff Bezos?

Bill Gates?

Oh I know ... Matt Hancock

Please tell me DeadHouseBounce, who is it??

Fed have said they are putting up rates again.
Where America goes, the rest of the world follows.

If he tells you, he'll have to kill you.