UK house prices post biggest fall since October 2008 - Halifax data today Weds 7th Dec

[jimmyjammy001]

Just a quick note for anyone looking to buy, in particular first time buyers who run the extreme risk of running into negative equity if buying with a low deposit

UK house prices post biggest fall since October 2008

Also its important to note that "Property prices are up more than £12,000 compared to this time last year, and well above pre-pandemic levels (+£46,403 vs March 2020). "

I suspect there will be bigger falls yet still to come as well

Also a homeoner

It would be better for the economy if we build nuclear power stations in Cumbria rather than reopening. Shitty coal mines that nobody wants or will utilise beyond 2030 and yet people keep on voting for the Conservative government that implements this crap. There is an enormous amount of issues within the UK that need urgently, addressing one of which is not causing thousands of people to be evicted from their homes and lose everything that they’ve worked for for the last 20 years if they’re actually were to happen I suspect the guillotines would be rolled out.

Also a homeowner and it made no sense my house increased massively in value when the economy is in the toilet. My house was worth when I bought it 1x my household income in 2016.

It's fake money though the 2008 crash and emergency rates , QE stopped the market from correcting. It artificially made us seem wealthier than what we are.

@Justthisonce12 the issue with building anything is where are the workers coming from? We have a very tight labour market in part due to the demographic changes & the lack of investment.

Why are so many doctors leaving for Oz? We will see this more & more.

We now have a situation where younger generations have salaries that are going backwards. What they do earn is taxed more & the idea of a home even if achievable is a huge cost. And despite high taxes, public services are collapsing. that's not attractive to those with skills same for immigrants.

It's only going to get worse due to the dependency ratio.

It's fake money though the 2008 crash and emergency rates , QE stopped the market from correcting. It artificially made us seem wealthier than what we are.

exactly. people talk about boom & bust, we never recovered from 08. Many were placated by low interest rates but that is gone now.

causing thousands of people to be evicted from their homes and lose everything that they’ve worked for for the last 20 years if they’re actually were to happen I

who is calling for that? People need to understand that ever increasing prices benefit very few. It would be highly unusual for someone who bought 20 years ago to be facing eviction. Why would they have not seen an increase in value or paid anything off?

Ireland’s biggest export for 20 years has been nurses its a standing joke in Australia.

my local hospital is full of Irish staff. My mum is Irish who came to England for better opportunity & met my dad who was another immigrant. I fully expect & encourage my dc to look elsewhere for opportunity.

Pre-2008. The an awful lot of interest only mortgages were sold so it’s entirely possible that people wouldn’t of paid Penny off the capital and hopefully there’s have another vehicle but they might be relying on the capital gains to downsize and purchase something else smaller at a later date, an entirely reasonable expectation.

equally in a divorce, if a property is to be split 50-50, there needs to be equity to purchase two houses to provide a home for two people.
But the main point is the catalyst that would be required for a house price crash will not just affect those people who are deemed to deserve it, the “reckless” who overborrowed, you would require a wonderful cocktail of high interest rates with high unemployment. That hits all of us hard I’m not convinced we will ever see that happen again.

I haven't advocated for a crash , I simply said the current market with ever increasing prices has fucked the economy.

If someone has only been paying the interest (at record low rates!) I don't think they can be described as having "worked so hard" for something for 20 yrs. It would take an enormous mortgage for the interest payments to be substantial, and only those with very high incomes would be able to obtain such a high mortgage. Back in the normal world, the vast majority of those who bought 5 years ago or more are sitting on enough equity to cushion the blow of a fall.

Totally agree.

and you specifically talked about lose everything that they’ve worked for for the last 20 years

to be pedantic if you have been on interest only for 20 years during lowest ever interest rates & not paid back a penny then something has gone wrong somewhere!

might be relying on the capital gains to downsize and purchase something else smaller at a later date, an entirely reasonable expectation.

why is that anymore a reasonable expectation then young people being able to get on the ladder?

, if a property is to be split 50-50, there needs to be equity to purchase two houses to provide a home for two people.

there doesn't need to be anything though.

I don't think there will be a crash just years & years of stagnation. People will be more reluctant to take on such large debt when servicing more interest. The days of houses doubling in value in 5 yrs or whatever are gone.

My brother and ex wife had a huge house on an IO mortgage
After 20 years of marriage they were both left with £5k each
It happens

might be relying on the capital gains to downsize and purchase something else smaller at a later date, an entirely reasonable expectation

Yeah.... this is anything but a reasonable expectation, in a sane world.

And in the meantime they will have benefitted from having extremely low housing costs. So presumably they either lived the high life, or put away lots of other savings. Whatever choices they made are their own responsibility.

And yet, according to some people on here who are gleefully, expecting people to be fucked, those five years of equity, they are hoping will disappear down the drain.

I’m not making the argument here I’m just relying a reasonable response as to why the government simply just will not allow it to happen.
Sunken costs. The government are in too deep.

in 2007 a property that met my family’s needs was already out of reach, we put down 40 grand that we did indeed work very hard for, and we did not then sit on our arses for another 15 years. We continued to work hard, just because we were fortunate enough to pay off some of the capital as well as the interest doesn’t make has any less deserving of a home or more so.

We also have the category from 2007 of people who self certified on mortgage is fixed rate came to an end and then they got stuck on the SVR because on paper they couldn’t afford the mortgage that they were indeed paying. I think they call those the mortgage prisoners over on money-saving expert‘s those people of worked very hard. And they would be at least early 50s now so would find it very difficult to start again.
I doubt will be throwing them to the wolves given the number of Tory voters in the demographic.

I moved house in the last five years & my brother recently bought. Neither of us have assumed we would gain equity every year, why would we?
In my part of London prices stagnated since Brexit & covid/stamp duty pause only got it going again but plenty of flats sold for less than they sold a few years ago.

The gov won't let what happen?

I don't believe there will be a raft of repossessions which is a good thing. The banks are being encouraged to offer interest free, extend terms etc. The era of cheap money is over.

Prices will be hit over the next few years, it's inevitable.

My brother worked out if he bought the same house today that he did 8 months ago it would be £700 extra a month in interest. £700!!! even if you can afford it people will struggle to swallow spending so much more on "debt".

High life
Nothing left

And even IO on a huge mortgage is a lot

But nobody has worked for the capital gains that will have accrued in that time! Any equity that is attributable to capital gains is not "hard earned". It just isn't.