Anyone noticed the market has changed?

[yaxe]

We are in the process of buying (have sold) & it was mad in March, lots of overbidding etc. I've noticed now reductions & stuff is staying on rather than going in a wk. It's making me a bit nervous tbh.

the good times are over. i would dread to have overpaid in the last 2 years. will be drops from peak of abvout 20-30% over the next couple of years

Depends where you live. It may happen in less desirable areas but in desirable areas they maintain or rise slightly.

All my previous houses going back to 1988 have risen about 80% if not more. None of them have dropped ever

And I’ve been through 2 crazy property bubbles.

it will be widespread. globally. 20-30% on average with some a lot worse

And yet none of my houses have ever dropped in price over 30 years.

Despite dire predictions. How can a commodity on short supply drop in price so easily? There’s only been 2 price drops since WW2

Lived in my old house for ten years, average price rise per year was about £11k. Lived in this house for similar length of time, during austerity, covid, and brexit fears, and the house price has risen by a similar amount, if not more.

My place

SE very attractive and covetable commuter town

Brought 10 years ago for £435k
It sold three months ago (but I pulled out as changed my mind and couldn’t face moving away as love it so much around here!) for £702k

Oh and as a single parent I had done very little work to it

Tarted up the garden and two new bathrooms over 10 years. And other bits and pieces but absolutely nothing substantial

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

Lack of access to credit would curb demand and increase supply. Particularly if landlords start selling up at the same time.

None of us know what's going to happen over the next 12 months but a sudden sharp interest rate rise (could happen) would curb demand at the entry level / first rung on the ladder. Which would then negatively affect the next rung up etc.

I remember interest rates at 17%. Caused a maybe 10% brief drop according to the National wide. They soon recovered though.

Ive been through 2 housing bubbles and naysayers are always yeah housing prices will drop. They do, in some areas, but not in all. And they recover fast.

I'm trying not to be a doom monger but we are in the shit financially. No one knows how this will play out.

I think the government would like high inflation to stay (fuck the poor) to inflate their debt away. The issue is if other countries raise interest rates, we will have to as well, otherwise sterling will tank.

I'm not going to make any predictions, as we're in uncharted waters.

The thing is “we” are not all in the shit, we are not all in this together, some people will be disproportionately affected and some people will be unaffected as they always are from everything literally bullet-proof health aside.
The plan was always to inflate the debt away the right it was on the wall from day one, currently my salary is rising at a faster rate than my mortgage so I’m literally being paid to borrow money.

@Nothappyatwork

Ah, you're back. Other than none of them know what they are talking about, have you come up with any logical and coherent responses to Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon and Laurence Summers' comments?

Youre still harping on about people who dont live in the same hemisphere and have nothing to do with housing are you ?
muppet

I'm not going to make any predictions, as we're in uncharted waters

Im not sure we are. I lived through the 70’s. This is very very similar. Yet it had little impact on house prices if you refer to the graph.

Good times definitely not over here. Saw a house on Saturday that had 35 viewings and was under offer on Monday. They had multiple best and final offers submitted and we were told it went for more than £30k over our best offer, which was already £13k over the guide price.

Youre still harping on about people who dont live in the same hemisphere and have nothing to do with housing are you ?

The US is in the northern hemisphere. What hemisphere do you think the U.K. is in?

Surely it is different to the past though. My parents house cost 60k & would sell for 1.6m, they could quite easily sell & buy a decent property for 800k & have 800k to play with.

Today's mortgages are much bigger & longer, ftbs are older & tend to be already earning well. For most people if your house goes up 50% so does what you want to move too. I couldn't buy anything outright with my equity unless I moved miles away.

In terms of the economy I think it's a huge unknown. I think a lot of people will be shielded from interest rate rises due to no mortgage or fixed mortgage however people will reign in spending & we are far more service based than we were in the past. I think interest rates will settle around 4% & stay there. There is no way that won't hit house prices growth.

One benefit of 70s inflation was that it lead to wage growth. I can see that happening now.

I'm a first time buyer in an absolute nightmare of a situation atm - had an offer accepted end of August 2021, turned out the lease needed extending, this took the seller 9 months to do! A she went through 3 solicitors! In that time our mortgage offer expired and our interest rate went from 1.4% to 2.6%! Finally, the lease was sorted, after being told for 9 months that this is what we were waiting for, once we asked for an exchange and completion date, suddenly the seller informed us that she was in an onward chain and hadn't yet had the survey done! 2 weeks later, survey comes back with subsidence and so she can't buy the property so we are back at square one! Our second mortgage offer expires end of September so looks like our rate will go up again! And we are now looking for another property in a different area as we now can't afford the area we previously offered it 😩😩

Er, yes that’s right, they bring nothing to the area.

”Don’t worry little Bobby, you stay in the town you grew up in, plenty of jobs for you here, the rich old people down the road who bought your gran’s house for 25x your salary need you to clean it, mend it and serve them at the pub. Aim high little one.”

🙄🙄

I am watching with interest as I am waiting to buy with a decent deposit. House prices have increased massively in my area but some are starting to reduce now.

The comments about landlords selling up are interesting as in my area a lot of the houses that come up are former rental properties. A lot of them are student houses where I think demand may have decreased in recent years as more students are living in private halls of residence throughout all of their degrees. Some of these are sold at auction.

I am having a baby in December so I am very keen to be moved by then but I a very wary at buying at the top of the market and getting stuck in a house that we might grow out of. What would you do if you were me?

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I understand that the decade of QE is unprecedented.

But if they were doing those jobs anyway and all second homers offer is more work

So they buy a second home, a holiday home and they are basically hermits? They don’t eat in the local restaurants or cafes? Don’t buy from the local butchers? None of them use cleaners? Or ever replace their carpets? Or put in a new kitchen? Or buy something from the local town Center? Don’t do… anything, don’t spend a penny.