Anyone noticed the market has changed?

[yaxe]

We are in the process of buying (have sold) & it was mad in March, lots of overbidding etc. I've noticed now reductions & stuff is staying on rather than going in a wk. It's making me a bit nervous tbh.

www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/07/uk-property-prices-rise-at-the-fastest-rate-for-18-years

It's very confusing

www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/people/properties-in-scotland-at-all-time-high-as-new-record-reached-3760068

It's awful for people trying to buy, it's just getting harder & harder

I see house prices are up 13% today according to the go to press that you cite as your reliable sources. @FortonServices
it’s almost as if there’s absolutely no logical rhyme or reason to it isn’t it ?

Choice 2 is only terrible if you hold a relatively large mortgage. Most homeowners have no mortgage.

House prices are really the only asset bubble that hasn't already burst. When it does then it'll be fantastic news for young buyers. There are always winners and losers in these equations and FTB have had the bad end of the deal for the last 20 years.

And is repeatedly pointed out to people that if the asset price starts dropping the bank stop lending there was an enormous fear at the beginning of 2020s lockdown the prices were going to tank and the first thing all the banks did was introduced to 25% minimum deposit.

so no first time buyers will not benefit from it yet again the only people who will benefit from it will be the cash purchaser ie landlords

@XVGN -asset collapse would affect more than just those with large mortgages (although that would still be a lot of people).
Stock market collapse would affect wealthy people and everyone that has invested in a pension.
Asset price collapse would also affect everyone with assets in the sense that they would have less leverage. Also, it has been shown that people spend more when the value of their home rises. That would have a knock on effect in the economy on many businesses.
Unfortunately, I doubt it would be great for most FTB as banks will tighten lending criteria. I absolutely agree that they have had a shocking deal from successive governments and banking officials.

@Nothappyatwork

www.standard.co.uk/business/uk-stage-three-property-housing-market-downturn-b1010290.html

The trouble is you can find two contradictory article at once but the rising prices have definitely defied predictions. Plus personal bias comes into it, someone who has a home wants to feel confident it's a secure bet & someone who wants to buy wants it to be easier. Very hard to get a balanced view.

Market has changed here. In 2021 it was hot, properties being snapped up at well over asking, the number of properties available (ie not under offer/sstc)was around 400 three months ago and is now around 800. It has slowed right down as far as going under offer is concerned, reductions common but properties still coming on at prices that seem unrealistic. Before the pandemic the market was just picking up from a long slow haul to recover from the drop after the 2007 peak. Houses could then take two or three years to sell or even longer. I suspect that those times might be on their way back. The local market can't support so many high priced homes and investors/incomers are drying up, or their deep pockets are.

Here is Pembrokeshire!

@snowspider do you think it’s the the people who moved believing they could work from home from anywhere have now found they can’t? My company (engineering consultancy) used to have a flexible work from home policy , but are now pushing harder for a 2x a week in the office.

@XVGN FTB won’t be able to get a mortgage if prices crash….!

Possibly, "the alternative to Cornwall" etc and a "good investment". And the law in Wales is changing significantly on second homes and holiday lets as well as regular rentals.

This will percolate through

gov.wales/new-package-measures-address-high-numbers-second-homes?utm_source=rss-announcements&utm_medium=rss-feed&utm_campaign=announcements-New+package+of+measures+to+address+high+numbers+of+second+homes

Homes are being done up and extended that outprice the available number of buyers that can afford them.

You may have missed the news but BTC is down 70%, Nasdaq is down 25% and FTSE250 is down 20%. Those bubbles have already burst. UK housing still up 10% since last year - into silly price territory. The FTSE100 is well protected. Sure it'll fall but two things are in it's favour - the bulk of its earnings are from outside the UK so it's a hedge against the pound, and it is operating from a low PE so bad news is really priced in. You just need to keep abreast of the economics and invest appropriately.

Falling prices not good for FTB? I'll have to remember that one. It made me laugh.

But they will if prices increase by 10% again? What planet are you on?

'You may have missed the news but BTC is down 70%, Nasdaq is down 25% and FTSE250 is down 20%. Those bubbles have already burst. UK housing still up 10% since last year - into silly price territory. The FTSE100 is well protected. Sure it'll fall but two things are in it's favour - the bulk of its earnings are from outside the UK so it's a hedge against the pound, and it is operating from a low PE so bad news is really priced in. You just need to keep abreast of the economics and invest appropriately.

Falling prices not good for FTB? I'll have to remember that one. It made me laugh.'

No need to be patronising just because someone has a different opinion.
I'm well aware that stock markets are down, some more than others.
When I said collapse, I actually meant collapse rather than a slower leak.
Obviously, housing hasn't fallen/ significantly, at least not in the UK, but I think it will.
I didn't say that falls weren't good for FTB. Clearly, they are much better than large rises. I said that banks will tighten their lending which is likely to mean FTBs (and others) will find it much harder to borrow and buy. Collapse in the housing market will also likely come us part of a much wider collapse which is likely to mean widespread job losses and hardship for many, including first time buyers. It's not as straightforward as you suggest.

Market has changed here. In 2021 it was hot, properties being snapped up at well over asking, the number of properties available (ie not under offer/sstc)was around 400 three months ago and is now around 800. It has slowed right down as far as going under offer is concerned, reductions common but properties still coming on at prices that seem unrealistic. Before the pandemic the market was just picking up from a long slow haul to recover from the drop after the 2007 peak. Houses could then take two or three years to sell or even longer. I suspect that those times might be on their way back. The local market can't support so many high priced homes and investors/incomers are drying up, or their deep pockets are

Its still red hot round me. Most houses sell in less than a week, and it’s always been like that. I’ve never known a house take 2 years to sell. I live in catchment for one of the top state schools in the U.K. Prices are and always have been crazy.

The issue here isn’t really which way it goes. It’s that your certainty of price crashes = great for FTB is misplaced.

Mortgages consist of 2 parts. Deposit, and affordability.

In the case of house prices rising we presume the economy to be ‘normal’. Plenty of mortgage deals to be had, so people who just about meet the affordability criteria and have small deposits stand a chance.

If house prices drop banks will tighten up lending. Even with big deposits there will be stricter lending criteria. Those in recession exposed jobs/with irregular income probably won’t be able to borrow at all. There will also be a lot of investment buying going on, so tougher competition.

Again all of it depends on the degree of impact - what is a ‘crash’ for example? 5% price drop? 10%? 50%?
And the surrounding factors.

I'm not convinced about prices dropping = much harder for FTBs. The market has been tough for FTBs for a long time, lending was restricted after 08 & deposits are often prohibitive. Generally the FTBs buying in the last 10 years have had good deposits, family help, secure jobs, good credit rating etc.

In this current climate 95% mortgages have been backed by the government & I don't think stamp duty reductions are unthinkable.

Round here in SE London (zone 5) it feels like lots of new things coming onto market but completely out of our budget

And there are many, many properties hanging around from months ago, with reductions

There are a couple of roads we are focusing on. For example, 3 bed semi on one street we're interested in sold for £550k late last year.

Now, similar 3 beds are coming on in the same road for at least 100k more than this

Another similar property (although has loft conversion & ground floor rear extension & beautifully presented) in the same road had come on for well over £800k

So we're not feeling optimistic
Our budget is 600k max

We've been under offer with ours for a few months now...worried going to lose our buyer, but we just any find anything

DH and discussing this last night, we need more space and extra bedroom (currently in 2 bed split level maisonette in zone 4/5)

But if we can't find anything, we're seriously just thinking of taking ours off the market & giving up for now

Obviously not great for our prospective buyers, I feel bad for them but what can we do? Sell and then go into rented? Move in with my parents & possibly commit homicide or trigger divorce for DH and I!

Fed up with it all, going to sit in the paddling pool

We're SE London and we live in Beckenham BR3 and looking to move to West Wickham BR4

Would love to stay in Beckenham but the price of a house is even more astronomical than before!

If house prices drop banks will tighten up lending

They already are. Reports of "down valuations" are rife on the property board. A "down valuation" is when the lender values the property at less than the estate agent and potential buyer have valued it at.

They already are. Reports of "down valuations" are rife on the property board. A "down valuation" is when the lender values the property at less than the estate agent and potential buyer have valued it at

This has been happening round me for months. House prices still went up. I read in London that people were being made to sign against this. So if a house they’d offered on was down valued by the mortgage company they still had to pay the offered vslue.

I don’t think this is causing the drops. I do think they will drop slightly though.

Mixed bag here, but definitely cooling a bit (SE commuter town).

A set of five new builds came on a little while ago. First one flew in a day, second one then listed for £40k more and also went. The three smaller (same bedrooms, downstairs lacks a dining room and study, but still a good layout) came on and so far only one has gone. I've just seen a £15k reduction and I can't work out why that would be, other than to try and get it sold quicker.

Prices here have gone nuts, but the last couple of weeks seem to show a bit of an adjustment. Obviously this is just asking, but as stuff is staying on longer, perhaps the over asking offers might be stopping.