Anyone noticed the market has changed?

[yaxe]

We are in the process of buying (have sold) & it was mad in March, lots of overbidding etc. I've noticed now reductions & stuff is staying on rather than going in a wk. It's making me a bit nervous tbh.

Low "emergency" rates for well over a decade and now central banks racing each other to get the rates up, damn right the market has changed! There are people out there who have never seen a meaningful rate rise in their working lifetime, and many of them are loaded up with mortgage debt! What an absolute cluster*fuck of an economy we have nowadays.

I'm noticing a fair few that look like they could be ex rentals and based on another thread, this could be because of the upcoming changes in rental rules. The more savvy landlords could be trying to sell while prices are high, knowing that the writing is on the wall. Surprised by the amount of landlords on that thread who didn't know about the upcoming changes in the law, or about the proposed EPC changes. Some are going to get caught high and dry, based on that thread at least.

Maybe we will see an increase in supply combined with reduced demand at the same time. The next 6 months could be interesting.

UK factories' output nearly at stand-still after new orders fall:

mol.im/a/10973325

Thoughts @Nothappyatwork

She’d be better off on a buy to let mortgage then, those are still very reasonable

The ECP changes that have to be implemented by 2025 on new tenancies and on 2028 for existing? Thats quite a while to find £300 to insulate the loft 🙄. Not to mention utilise the lovely government grants available.

Some properties will never be a C rating ever, so if they are removed from the pool that’ll increase rents for those who are.

@Nothappyatwork

Still heading for a period of growth are we?

@Ohthatsexciting and others, I agree that rural/coastal communities need industries with jobs and careers with training for younger people. Making them better as waiting staff is just not good enough. I had hopes for the coal mine in Cumbria.
As everyone knows it is not for power but for steel making.
That would offer a range of long term careers in civil engineering, geology, Mechanical engineering and electrical engineering. Chemistry will also be vital.
But the nimbys and Trust fund supported hard line ecologists look like scuppering it.

We are yes, thanks for asking.

Love the daily mail citations btw, your brilliance knows no beginning 🤣

@Nothappyatwork

So you won't mind if we come back and quote you in a few months time then 😂

Absolutely you feel free. My position has been throughout this that some industries will be absolutely unaffected completely enough to be fine and people will sail through without issue. And some people will be absolutely nailed.

@Nothappyatwork

You've changed your position over the last few weeks.

You rubbished Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon and Laurence Sumner's comments on the economy on the basis that you are running a 45 million project. Remember?

No I pointed out that those people, particularly Elon musk who has been notoriously wrong on several occasions with predicting anything Nevermind an economy … are not in the UK and therefore what they do with their hiring of technical staff has very little impact on what I’m doing with hiring my technical staff here in the UK.

and you can fuck off with your “remember” passive aggressive shit.

@Nothappyatwork

Your posts are there for all to see.

PS you do realise the economy is global and the U.K. economy isn't immune from what happens in the rest of the world don't you? Do you understand the impact the war in Ukraine is having on inflation in the U.K., for example?

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-05/uk-households-can-withstand-rates-of-up-to-5-boe-says?srnd=premium-uk

If NZ is anything to go by (they started increasing rates in Nov 21 and have seen subsequent house prices drops of 9% between then and now), then the market will be changing. Base rates of 5% mean mortgage rates of 6-7%. How quickly we get to that is the question.

There is no way that most households or businesses will be able to cope with rates rise of 5%. That is a massive jump, 5 times more in interest than is being paid currently if the rate goes up by 5%.
The BOE are well aware that the British economy, households and businesses can't cope with these sort of rate changes, hence raising them so slowly that is causing £ to fall significantly against the $. They will have to hike them a lot if there is a sterling crisis though...

@rainingsnoring

Wonder if they are releasing this information to try and hold off a sterling crisis?

Who knows how their minds work? Telling lies seems to be the order of the day from both the government and the BOE though. Depressing that these sort of people are in charge.

There is no way that most households or businesses will be able to cope with rates rise of 5%. That is a massive jump, 5 times more in interest than is being paid currently if the rate goes up by 5%.

They were 17% when l was younger. They will raise them as much as they want. People couldn’t afford it then either.

What is your point? What has it got to do with higher rates in previous decades? The situation is totally different now.
I was suggesting that what the BOE has suggested in that article isn't accurate.

I don't understand the point of your comment.

Agreed. I was going to bid on a house, but the mortgage rate has now gone up so much that I'm pulling out from the market. I'm going to carry on renting for a year or so and see where things go. I remember 2007 all too well, and 1989.

We debated about holding off but rent would cost us at least 28k a yr. And I don't think mortgages are going to get any cheaper. If prices do drop I don't think it will be significant enough to outweigh what we are spending. However we got a rate better than would you would get now & reduced our LTV so still a bit cautious.

www.standard.co.uk/business/uk-stage-three-property-housing-market-downturn-b1010290.html

Interesting read as things appear to have changed very quickly.

@rainingsnoring

Personally I'd be watching what the Federal Reserve Bank does as that will force the Bank of England's hand. Unless they keep up with the FRB, the pound collapses and inflation gets even worse.

Choice 1 stagflation and sterling crisis

Choice 2 raise interest rates

My point is that interest rates can rise to very high levels.

@FortonServices

Choice 1 stagflation and sterling crisis causing asset price collapse

Choice 2 raise interest rates causing asset price collapse

As far as I can, these are the choices and they are both terrible for the UK economy. Good job the government know what they are doing, eh?!

You might be interested in this. I've definitely noticed an increase in properties coming on the market in the last few weeks in my area.
www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/homeowners-race-sell-house-prices-fall/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

@AntikytheraMech with rates going up relatively rapidly you definitely won't be the only one. Good luck.