Demographic timebomb and housing

[Salisburyspire]

When do we think babyboomers will begin to sell? This is not a generational bashing thread by the way, am asking from a strategic point of view.

Any economists or demographers out there? I have only seen one UK article on this and it predicted they wouldn’t sell until 2034 onwards. Surely that’s too late? Is there a particular five year period during which we expect there to be a huge downsizing?

When they do sell up, will it leave a glut of large homes on the market? I’m Gen X but very much want to trade up (one last large house). We own our house outright but the next step up in the area near DC schools has exponentially shot up over the last three years. (Leafy London but not too far out). One issue is a massive shortage of decent housing stock in that area. Our plan was always to move there, see the DC through school and then downsize as there doesn’t seem any point to living in a big house without the kids there when we could by then be enjoying a more comfortable retirement and liberating some property cash while not worrying as much about inheritance tax or costs of maintaining a large house and garden.

It seems though that the generation before is not budging. There are widowed people living in enormous five bedrooms homes with huge gardens. They don’t all look to be super wealthy judging by some of the slightly overgrown gardens etc. Yes it’s a wealthy area and yes it’s their right to live wherever they want. However unless all these homes are in a family trust or already signed over, the inheritance tax bill will be enormous.
These are homes in the £2million plus bracket.

If we are lucky enough to buy one of these homes (and stretch ourselves massively) do the demographics work against us if we have to sell in 10-15 years? Won’t that coincide with a glut of large houses so we will have bought at the top of the market and possibly be selling in a downturn?

Will Generation X actually be the riskiest generation to lend to as they don’t have enough working years ahead of them to properly pay down massive mortgages whilst some (not all!!) millennials will inherit property wealth from babyboomer parents?

Should the government reform stamp duty to provide an incentive to downsize? (Yes I know there are not enough quality smaller homes for people used to huge ones in nice areas). Will there ever be a great downsizing shift or is our country not built for it?

One of the tv property programmes recently featured a couple downsizing and the presenter commented that most couples downsizing don't want the properties developers build now. They still want large kitchens and living areas but want fewer bedrooms and more manageable gardens where developers tend to build overall small properties or overall large ones

I'm sure you are sincere but unfortunately your thread reads like 'when will all of these old gammons die so I can get a nice big house?'

There is a demographic housing timebomb on the horizon which sadly is much bigger than your own personal concerns and that is the growing number of people who will be in rented housing during retirement when we have no affordable housing stock for them and instead need to pay their rent via taxation. We're already shelling out £12 billion a year to private landlords. That bill is only going to get bigger.

So, to be clear, in around 10-15 years ' time it won't matter a jot to you that you didn't get that nice four-bedder you had your beak on. You'll be taxed up to the arsehole anyway to pay the rent demanded by landlords housing the now-working precariat, since become pension-age precariat.

@CollyFleur

A house is someone's home, first and foremost. Why should older people move out of homes they love in order to facilitate your climb up the property ladder and maximise your investments?

I have to agree here. You sound incredibly grabby OP.

@BookkeeperBobby
Of course lots of those private landlords are baby boomers. Paying tax on their income from rentals. Not all landlords have hundreds of houses. Plenty have a small portfolio and have properties for income after they retire.

I look at all the lovely houses surrounding my DS school and think how wonderful and convenient it would be to live in one. Spacious family homes, with large driveways, garages etc but all the owners are 60+.

It is what it is though. It's not a property, but a home.

@TizerorFizz of course.

But they still need paying. And they'll be paid, as private landlords for pensioners now are, via the public purse ie through tax. Fewer and fewer people are owner occupiers. That's a constant trend over the past 25 years. Give it another decade, decade and a half and that demographic will no longer be economically active, but they'll still need to be housed. We can't house them through public schemes because we don't have them any more, so we'll pay what landlords charge. All of us will pay that. We already are, but there's more coming down the line. £12 billion a year and counting.

Op's desire for a nice big house doesn't even figure compared to the weight we'll all be shouldering.

I'm sure you are sincere but unfortunately your thread reads like 'when will all of these old gammons die so I can get a nice big house?'

In fairness to the OP, she is completely sincere. And yes, that is what she is saying.

Most Boomers I know, wouldn’t consider moving from their long term large family homes, for a number of reasons, firstly most have excellent pensions and don’t need to financially downsize, they are often concerned about new neighbours, and can’t be bothered with the hassle of moving.

I am gen x, we have downsized from a large family house, due to my progressive disability we wanted to move to a bungalow, our large family home was purchased by Boomers! I naively thought a family would buy our house, I was surprised with the number of Boomers that were still buying bigger homes.

I am cross over between boomer and Gen X and we have downsized recently. Moved from inner city 3 bed terrace to semi detached 2 bed property with larger garden.
The main reason we stayed in the terrace was for schools and once dd had finished her schooling we moved. Sold terrace to young couple planning a family.
We are the first of our friends to do this, though others are also planning an escape from former city.

@BookkeeperBobby
So if you want more social housing then people should have it as a vital government policy, but they don’t. Many people don’t want more housing near them. Lots of sites are expensive to develop. Therefore we don’t have enough votes in providing housing. If there were not private landlords, where would we be?

No governing ever builds enough houses. We don’t make enough land available. We argue about planning applications for years. There’s no easy solution but forcing older people out of their homes won’t work either.

I’m a pensioner (just) and I’m not moving. I’ve had 3 houses. This one for 35 years. We are still changing it! We are intending to stay for quite a bit longer. It’s a major asset but we don’t need to realise it just yet.

@BookkeeperBobby Genuinely asking about the demographics behind when the right time would be to move - not least because we are not spring chickens and may have left it too late ourselves! I’m very aware of my own mortality so am trying to do the maths - and I could easily keel over before the generation above (as could any of us). Our own house is probably big enough but I would like more lateral space and fewer stairs because I’m also thinking ahead. If it comes across as grabby, so be it. It wasn’t a post about how do I solve the country’s social housing problem. I agree though we will all be paying for it in future as well as an unsustainable health and social care system.

Unfortunately new housing is rarely going to give you lateral space. Land is too expensive. Your options are therefore limited.

My boomer father is already in an apartment (US), having been impacted majorly by his divorces and the 2008 crash.

Not all boomers are in grand expensive houses, most aren't, and trying to make any sort of prediction of those who are are going to move isn't really going to work without a crystal ball.

If you were in your 70s and your area carried a premium due to schools which you no longer have a use for, AND you couldn’t afford to maintain a large house and garden, it would make sense to move.

Many grandparents are involved in the school run, and many are also involved in school governing boards.

Many people of all ages are struggling to main their houses and gardens with how things are going these days.

[quote Salisburyspire]@BookkeeperBobby Genuinely asking about the demographics behind when the right time would be to move - not least because we are not spring chickens and may have left it too late ourselves! I’m very aware of my own mortality so am trying to do the maths - and I could easily keel over before the generation above (as could any of us). Our own house is probably big enough but I would like more lateral space and fewer stairs because I’m also thinking ahead. If it comes across as grabby, so be it. It wasn’t a post about how do I solve the country’s social housing problem. I agree though we will all be paying for it in future as well as an unsustainable health and social care system.[/quote]
How old are you if you don't mind me asking?

@Clymene I’m 44 but DH is 50 so he’s not far behind some of the people on this thread who think I want to hound them out of their homes! We had kids late - though v nearly normal age for London. We have primary aged DC though. In hindsight I think we should have moved five years ago but it wasn’t on our radar then.

@MrsCremuel I wonder if ‘boomers’ are more attached to their homes because they tended to buy early and stick (it was worth their while to do so)? My MIL at 74, has lived in the same home since she was 26 and she will never leave.

I'm 75, and I literally don;t know any boomer who still lives in the first home they bought. We're in our 7th.

We and our peers all left home after school for university, and never went back. We upsticked and moved wherever and whenever work took us; all over the UK; abroad. We've always been used to making a new life in a new place, deciding which possessions to take or offload. What makes a place HOME is not the walls or the neighbours; it's the people in it and their habits and traditions and shared history.
Here we are in Number 7. Like number 6 and 5, it features my very particular demands regarding built in bookcases (to house 36 yards of books) and wall space for paintings, photos. The edited highlights of our very long marriage/life are here all around us; mingled with the new.

My parents are in this demographic and have no intention to sell, they can adapt the house to be single storey living if needed. They are in their 70's. I wouldn't make decisions based on other people selling!

Many older people have children who need larger homes themselves so they may end up swopping even

@Salisburyspire

Outside of London houses are not worth £2m! My parents 4 bed house is worth circa £500k

@2bazookas curious, all her friends are the same. All moved when kids were primary age and haven’t moved since. Similarly my neighbour the same. It’s obviously not going to be true for everyone but anecdotally I know a few for whom it is.

@Salisburyspire, have you tried knocking on the doors of these larger not well kept homes and asked if they would sell to you?
maybe it's the hassle of listing that turns them off OR it's actually owned by someone younger who rents it out.
that aside, my mother is 90 and just now selling her home that she has lived in for 50 years (to my brother)...
i'm 65 downsized at 57 and hope to remain in place till 85. so 20 more years for me who was born in 57. and to the person up thread who suggested most boomers would be dead or in care by 2032....in 10 years time??? honestly i'm fitter and healthier than the 20 year olds i see.

@fallfallfall I haven't done that yet but did consider a letter drop. The problem is it is quite a big area but I guess there are a few key streets that we prefer. But the youthful age at which you downsized makes me think we have left it way too late to upsize! (Our place is big enough but it is in the 'wrong' area and we want one more big house before we downsize but OH is 50). Thanks for the nudge to be proactive!

I rather assume everyone else wants the nicer areas too. They have the better houses snd moved into them before you. It’s just the way it is. Popular areas can mean a significant wait for a house and then competition.

There are tons of people drooling at lovely houses who couldn't buy one,