Demographic timebomb and housing

[Salisburyspire]

When do we think babyboomers will begin to sell? This is not a generational bashing thread by the way, am asking from a strategic point of view.

Any economists or demographers out there? I have only seen one UK article on this and it predicted they wouldn’t sell until 2034 onwards. Surely that’s too late? Is there a particular five year period during which we expect there to be a huge downsizing?

When they do sell up, will it leave a glut of large homes on the market? I’m Gen X but very much want to trade up (one last large house). We own our house outright but the next step up in the area near DC schools has exponentially shot up over the last three years. (Leafy London but not too far out). One issue is a massive shortage of decent housing stock in that area. Our plan was always to move there, see the DC through school and then downsize as there doesn’t seem any point to living in a big house without the kids there when we could by then be enjoying a more comfortable retirement and liberating some property cash while not worrying as much about inheritance tax or costs of maintaining a large house and garden.

It seems though that the generation before is not budging. There are widowed people living in enormous five bedrooms homes with huge gardens. They don’t all look to be super wealthy judging by some of the slightly overgrown gardens etc. Yes it’s a wealthy area and yes it’s their right to live wherever they want. However unless all these homes are in a family trust or already signed over, the inheritance tax bill will be enormous.
These are homes in the £2million plus bracket.

If we are lucky enough to buy one of these homes (and stretch ourselves massively) do the demographics work against us if we have to sell in 10-15 years? Won’t that coincide with a glut of large houses so we will have bought at the top of the market and possibly be selling in a downturn?

Will Generation X actually be the riskiest generation to lend to as they don’t have enough working years ahead of them to properly pay down massive mortgages whilst some (not all!!) millennials will inherit property wealth from babyboomer parents?

Should the government reform stamp duty to provide an incentive to downsize? (Yes I know there are not enough quality smaller homes for people used to huge ones in nice areas). Will there ever be a great downsizing shift or is our country not built for it?

@CertainUncertain
I agree with what you say. However I’ve had repeated abuse for being an uncaring “boomer”. I think other posters have not accepted that older people have feelings about their properties. I will continue to defend my position and others have had similar views. The nasty comments did not start with me. Purely explanations as to why older folk might like to stay put. Indeed, being fortunate is one of them!!

Therefore I completely realise I’m fortunate. I am not unique though. I explained earlier how mortgage tax relief worked and how having careers enabled us to borrow as a couple before we married. I never earned enough in those days to go it alone. What I do resent though is the implication that we are the problem. The problem is vast and varies from area to area.

We have a situation near us where there is a proposal to build 10 housing association homes. The complaints, the arguments, the uproar is deafening. Of course these homes should be built. The rural economy is crying out for them. However it’s a landowner who is making the land available and they don’t get the market value. It’s a vastly reduced purchase. This country can never solve housing because it doesn’t agree on housing policy. But suggesting it’s all the fault of older people and not accepting any defence of their position is just being tone deaf. And: it’s not going to change. The phrase “an Englishman’s home is his castle” is true. Like most past their prime, I like my castle very much.

So is it just baby boomers that should downsize? Is all under occupancy immoral? Surely this is a slippery slope when you start dictating who deserves to live where…

In 2020 my partner and I bought a large 5 bed, 3 reception room Victorian villa. We don’t have kids.
The only difference is that we were mid-late 20s at the time. So where is the cut off?

The thing is no one else made an offer. If you chose to have kids your disposable income naturally goes down, so sometimes a large project (which this house is) isn’t affordable.

It is wage growth that needs to be looked at, as well as increasing supply of affordable housing. Not turfing some poor widow out of her beloved family home.

I don’t think it’s about saying people should downsize as an automatic thing. Plus there is a difference with people in good health in their 20’s managing a large property and someone in their 70’s or 80’s trying to do the same. Yes we can get ill or injured at any point, but if we just go on likelihood, then it’s more likely if you’re older. I digress. Anyway what I think should be happening is better ways to incentivise or give people suitable options to downsize, so it doesn’t feel like a punishment. Some people would happily downsize I’m sure, if there was something decent to downsize to. There have been lots of points around bungalows etc and what current developments seem to lack.
As much as it’s not ideal to have a large home occupied by one person, if it’s their home and their quality of life will suffer to move, I can’t blame anyone for staying put.