What's going to happen to the housing market?

[painauchocanot]

We are first time buyers watching the market with interest. So far it seems to be staying ridiculously high where we are (north west). I'm curious as to people's predictions for the market in the next few months/spring next year.

While there is a housing shortage it will keep going up.

I've been wondering the same thing. Apparently it's only going to get worse. Really wish we'd been ready this time last year as we would've got so much more for our money

"There are those that don't know, and those that don't realise they don't know."

Hardly any houses coming to market and any desirable houses are going for at least 10k over asking price. Our house is expected to go up to 50k over asking price. We can’t find anywhere to move to. It’s fucking insane out there.

Was the housing market boom 'built on sand'? Stamp duty cliff edge saw property purchases plunge 63% last month from an all-time high in June

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9921859/Property-transactions-plummeted-63-July-stamp-duty-holiday-pulled.html

the market is broken. when the tide goes out over the next 12 months you will see who was swimming with no swimsuit

@oiltrader that's interesting. Will there be another drop come October then when the last extension finishes?

Some places are dropping others are still extremely busy. I think there is technically a drop overall across the U.K. but it depends on property type and location.
Smaller properties with gardens still very much in demand, larger houses calming down
I was reading about it this morning as our local area has a significant drop from peak but I'm not surprised as the peak was crazy and unsustainable by local conditions

[quote painauchocanot]@oiltrader that's interesting. Will there be another drop come October then when the last extension finishes?[/quote]
no idea!!! If I did, I would be a billionaire!

[quote painauchocanot]@oiltrader that's interesting. Will there be another drop come October then when the last extension finishes?[/quote]
The stamp duty holiday that ends in September only offers a maximum saving of £2,500, therefore unlikely to have any meaningful impact on prices from October.

Think each area is different tbh. Where i live there is high demand and low supply. Properties go to best and final within days of entering the market, waaay above asking price.

There is a concerted effort across the world to commodify housing. It will keep going up unless the billionaires want to short it.

There isn't a housing crisis, there's a greed crisis. www.make-the-shift.org/

Activity has cooled in some locations recently, but is still high vs. historic levels and prices aren't falling.

Interest rates are low, high net migration, low house building, Govt. support to FTB's (to keep the bubble inflated, because what they need is to take more debt to buy new builds from developers, rather than lower prices!). All these things likely to continue, but might not.

Property values as a multiple of average income are insane, I've been expecting them to fall for years but instead .... Logically there's a limit, but have we reached it yet? Or will previous errors, e.g. mortgages at ever increasing salary multiples keep prices high?

History says there will be a price correction (followed by another escalation), but no-one can say for sure it'll happen, or when.

Anyone who can predict the future with a high degree of accuracy should be very, very rich.

Demand for anything over £300k (small 3 bed detached or large 3 bed semi) has died conpletely here (SW). All the £450k detached say they have been reduced in the past couple of weeks. FTB 2 beds and 3 bed terraces are still going.

Property values as a multiple of average income are insane, I've been expecting them to fall for years but instead .... Logically there's a limit, but have we reached it yet?

Average income doesn't really matter, though - the important thing in the current system is the top few deciles of income. There is a significant minority of people getting annual bonuses higher than the average income, and it's really this group that affects prices. As others have said, while there is more demand than supply, prices will keep rising.

I think the NW is going to get worse. People down south (mainly) are buying up cheaper BTL homes which is raising prices.

@rhowton we have found this. We've struggled to find anything in budget and when we did and got an offer accepted, a cash buyer from down south offered 15k over and will be doing it up for BTL

My feeling is house prices are unlikely to fall dramatically anytime soon. I think this because a house price crash seems like more or less the only thing that's likely to stop people voting tory in large numbers....and the tories know this as well.

[quote MrsTerryPratchett]There is a concerted effort across the world to commodify housing. It will keep going up unless the billionaires want to short it.

There isn't a housing crisis, there's a greed crisis. www.make-the-shift.org/[/quote]

100% this.

When houses stopped becoming places to live and started becoming investments, we had, and continue to have, a problem.

Its overheated and will have to come down. IMHO. Sales have slowed down hugely in the last month or two.

Buy to Let is being replaced by Buy to Air B&B. This is the real issue as it reduces even further the amount of housing stock available to renters.

I cant see house prices reducing by any significant amount. Too many vested interests.

I think London has already fallen a lot but it will always be a great tourist city so it will never be cheap.

I live in a part of London where ‘SAHM’ is practically a euphemism for residential landlord. I keep hearing they’re selling up as soon as their tenants vacate, or switching to Air BnB, One Fine Day etc. to circumvent the constantly changing regulations especially the indefinite leases. London councils restrict Air B&B to 90 days in a calendar year but nobody seems to be checking.

Don’t know about the rest of the UK but the NW where I was based for a couple of years is bound to increase as Manchester feels like a second city. I know that’s technically Birmingham but it always seemed so suburban to me.

I think prices will level off and maybe even drop a bit if interest rates rise which might have to happen in the next couple of years. But that doesn't help buyers as they will have to limit their borrowing. It's all relative.

As someone who has been privately renting for 12 years.

It’s miserable and it’s not coming down. Don’t wait for the crash. Just buy what you can when you can.

I think the NW is going to stay in a state of boom for a while. People are still moving to Manchester particularly from london as you get an amazing city lifestyle and relatively it’s still a lot cheaper. Impending HS2 (even though a while a way) will drive this up more. As others have said while we still have such a housing shortage I don’t see why prices would crash sadly. It’s so hard for FTB.

I'm trying to find a new property to rent and even that's proving impossible...30 plus interest in every property and prices are about £200 more than I currently pay for similar properties. I do already own a house but xh lives there so I'm not too bothered about buying again at the moment but I do need somewhere to live as current landlord selling!