What's going to happen to the housing market?

[painauchocanot]

We are first time buyers watching the market with interest. So far it seems to be staying ridiculously high where we are (north west). I'm curious as to people's predictions for the market in the next few months/spring next year.

My understanding is London has cooled off, and has gone down slightly, and likely to continue to drop further. Historically when London cools, the rest of the country follows, I think it was termed the ripple effect, but it takes many, months/ years for those ripples to cascade outwards, although it might be quicker this time as the financial bite of Brexit and Covid haven't really come into play yet. I should add i'm not an economist, accountant, or anything to do with finance, I'm simply going by historical records of the housing market dips / crashes and previous economic depressions (which is likely to kick in on a global scale over the next 18months...again that's taking a historical approach, if we have decent political economists we might just swerve a very bad economic down turn but I think it unlikely) so OP in answer to your question if you can hold off until the late spring 2022, I think you might find prices start to dip!

Thanks all, it's really interesting to see the different views. We would carry on renting but our mortgage payments would be nearly half our rent and the amount we could save could mean moving up the housing ladder again in a few years. And thus, we become part of the problem I suppose!

Houses in London aren't coming down anytime soon, if anything they are increasing. I'm currently buying somewhere that came on the market at the beginning of July. The transaction is going painfully slowly, however nothing else has come on since except things £25-75k more which I couldn't afford. If I pulled out now, my vendor could advertise for, and easily get £30k more, so I'm hanging in there. It's a complete house sellers market.

Flats not so much, I think they are coming down, and will fall further. I'd be wary of buying one at the moment.

South coast, prices are not coming down here. We’ve been looking for months. Very little on the market and what is available is overpriced. But people are paying it because they are getting desperate I guess. I’m hoping it will improve at the end of the year but I don’t have high hopes. Can’t see the October stamp duty change making much difference.

Thoughts on 1.5-2m detached properties in Surrey/Kent? Are these going up because people want space or because fewer people can afford them and therefore unlikely to hold their value over time?

I can't see how prices come down when we have a supply shortage.

Sales are fewer but not because lots of properties are sitting unsold, but because few are coming to market now the stamp duty threshold has passed.

prices reduced near me & lots on been on a while.

I personally think toppy areas will see stagnation but more growth in cheaper areas. If I was a FTB I wouldn't bet on gaining huge equity & I would try & future proof your purchase as much as possible so if you did need to stay there longer than planned you can.

Still going strong here...trendy east london...and also you can hardly park now due to all the skips and builders vans....so not just the high price for the house....there are the expensive total renovations and lofts and extensions being added...these buyers are now in for over a million pounds...!!

I agree the housing market has gone crazy over the last year. We accepted an offer on ours in Sept 2020 with an onward purchase, we eventually pulled out of purchase as vendor was messing us around. We carried on with sale, completed in February 2021 and have been renting since with the hope to find somewhere. Just wish we'd pulled out of our purchase a week sooner as there was a perfect property in our location for £285k now we'd be looking at £315k for the property. It really has gotten us down as life goes on hold trying to scrimp and save to eventually manage that price hike. I do believe summer 2022 things will pick up, as for some the life change they've made following COVID may not be as they imagined and they want their old life back. It's anyone's guess. Wishing you all luck to find your perfect property x

Its a bit of a headache, I own my own home already and it's gone up £50k in value in less than a year, I bought at rock bottom right before Brexit.
My son, DiL and I buying together in spring, tey are first time buyers, they will be providing £50k of the purchase but the way things are going I think they will soon need to provide £100k which will be a stretch.
At some point the prices will go down but nobody can predict when.

In the SE, sold for 305k in July, comparable houses are now 10 to 15k more. Not sure what they're selling for though but clearly agents are recommending that pricing so must think its achievable.

If you want a good quick view of recent house sales in your area I recommend this site
houseprices.io
It also gives an inflation-adjusted estimate of any price changes, which might be a comfort to some.

50k in less than a year, is not something I bet you ever expected to hear! But quite achievable at the moment. We really thought we were doing the right thing letting the sale of our house go through( were on a busy road) but I just don't know if we'll now be able to stretch to the 4 bed we need for our 3 children, given the demand for 4 bed properties and price tag which goes with that. We sold and looking in South Lincolnshire x

I have offered on two houses recently at asking price which the bank has then significantly downvalued. The surveyors/valuers seem cautious and this would indicate they would expect a price adjustment potentially as well as the fact the houses are currently overpriced.

No predictions really but my goodness the market is crazy where we are right now (South East, commutable into London).

There's limited supply after the stamp duty rush, and as such vendors are commanding (and buyers are paying!) higher than they would have 6 months ago despite having no stamp duty benefits now.

Houses are routinely going for 10% above market price; when they're already over a half a mil this is crazy money. We've only just scraped enough money together for a 15% deposit (to get preferential mortgage rates) and we fear we may have to go with a 10% deposit to compete with rising prices (so we have enough left over for stamp duty etc).

We think prices will remain stable for at least the next 6-12 months, and then may dip a bit, but with the continuing exodus out of London to Home Counties, I reckon there won't be a huge dip where we are. Even if there is, we plan on staying in the house we are (hoping) to buy for at least 7 to 10 years so hopefully the market would have not dropped beyond what we pay for the property at that stage anyway.

Only time will tell!