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Original poster

Anyone able to give me an educated guess as to what will happen with the housing market....

43 replies

PraiseBee · 13/04/2021 19:37

... In the next year or two? We're first time buyers, renting a lovely house. The market is crazy at the moment and house prices have jumped by £50 in the last 6 months. There are so many cash buyers offering over the asking price, we can't compete.
What do you think might happen after stamp duty ----disaster holiday ends?!

OP posts:

ThisIsStartingToBoreMe · 13/04/2021 19:55

I've said it before but i'll say it again.

In the long term, property prices always increase.

lastqueenofscotland · 13/04/2021 19:56

I still think there is so much pent up demand, people wanting to move, people waiting till later in the year to market, that even when the stamp duty holiday ends there is still enough demand to keep the market moving.
Real housing crashes are very very rare, and when they do the banks don’t lend generously so it only really benefits cash buyers.
Stagnation is more likely than a crash
I’d personally not hold out waiting for a crash that might not come, a lot of people do this and a few years down the line are completely left behind by the market.

PerditaMacleod · 13/04/2021 19:58

Agree with @ThisIsStartingToBoreMe, in the long term, it only ever goes up. I'd buy as soon as you can.

Original poster

PraiseBee · 13/04/2021 20:00

Thanks lastqueen. I'm not expecting a crash. Especially where we live, it's not going to happen. Just more along the lines of do you think it will stay this busy or quieten down? Do you there will be less cash buyers after stamp duty holiday ends? Interesting that you the think momentum will continue. This is the sort of opinion I was hoping for

OP posts:

candlemasbells · 13/04/2021 20:10

I’m looking to buy at the moment, just sold mine and I’m a cash buyer. I know a couple of estate agents well who are saying there’s a lot of demand in my area but people are getting their houses valued but not putting them on the market because they can’t see anything to move to. So there are few houses pushing prices up. I think it will slacken up a bit later in the year but it’s a gamble. Buy now and we could be at a peak, wait and prices could increase further.
If I see a house I really like I’ll go for it, otherwise I’ll hang on.

Changingwiththetimes · 13/04/2021 20:13

I think the market will slow a bit, and return to more normal activity levels by the end of the year. There's always a spring rush and then the market slows, slight increase in the autumn then slows way down leading up to Christmas, then a surge. If there are no more lockdowns, then the current pent up demand, people having spare cash from not going on holiday for two years, which requirements etc will eventually disappear.
But prices will continue to rise, just more moderately.

Roselilly36 · 13/04/2021 20:17

I just can’t see how the current rise in house prices are sustainable. I am not thinking or hoping that there will a crash, as that effects too many people. But a gentle levelling off perhaps. I have seen the major crashes in the early 90’s and 2008, not something I would like to see again. But I agree with PP property always rises and remains a great investment long term.

tanguero · 13/04/2021 20:22

Roselilly36 Tue 13-Apr-21 20:17:28
I have seen the major crashes in the early 90’s and 2008, not something I would like to see again. But I agree with PP property always rises....

In large parts of the North, property prices have still to recover to 2008 levels.

senua · 13/04/2021 20:32

... In the next year or two?
It is probably a mistake to think in such short time-periods. Transaction costs, including Stamp Duty, are so expensive these days that people move less frequently. Think long-term. Always keep an eye out for that elusive bargain but think long-term.

mklanch · 13/04/2021 20:58

Tbh the current market is not realistic and cant keep on going the way its going with out some sort of crash.
ive seen so many houses come on that have been sold within the last year or 2 and they are up by 100k-200k more than what they brought it for. (in 1 year!!!)....realistically once furlough finishes thats when things will have to simmer down as so many people are going to be out of work and less mortgages are going to be approved.
having said all that, i do think the government will do anything and everything they can to avoid a crash so we will see.

folloyourarro · 13/04/2021 21:00

Are you after a home or an investment? If the latter you can guess till the cows come home but it's always going to be a game of risk, much about luck as anything else but if looking to invest in the long term probably not as big of a risk.

If you're after a home, buy when you've found a house you want and can afford. Assuming your mortgage is in the region of 25 years you can't possibly begin to predict what will happen in that time. If you buy now and prices drop it doesn't really matter if the house suits you for a while and your mortgage is fixed, as a pp says, eventually house prices will rises; major economic crashes, political turmoil and a global pandemic doesn't seem to have intervened in the market too much just yet so I'm sure we can assume even if there is a dip it's likely to be short term.

Nightshade26 · 13/04/2021 21:02

We're in the same boat as you, OP.

We're in the south east and I've seen house prices rocket so far beyond the average wage in our area that I don't know anyone who can still afford to buy.

DH and I are looking at moving away to the East Midlands just so that we can afford to buy a house. Things are only going to get more expensive.

Original poster

PraiseBee · 13/04/2021 21:31

Thank you so much for sharing your opinions.
We're looking for home. And I suppose my questioning is less about what's will happen with the prices and more about how frantic everything is, people paying way over the asking price. We can't compete with someone who has cash and doesn't need a mortgage lender to approve the value of the home.
I am of course concerned about prices and think they are absolutely bonkers and I think we're setting up the country for real trouble in decades to come. But I can't do anything about that. But I can think about whether there is any easier time to buy rather than a better time to buy for price.
Keep your thoughts coming if so inclined, I like to chew things over

OP posts:

Beebumble2 · 13/04/2021 21:38

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

mklanch · 13/04/2021 21:39

@Nightshade26

We're in the same boat as you, OP.

We're in the south east and I've seen house prices rocket so far beyond the average wage in our area that I don't know anyone who can still afford to buy.

DH and I are looking at moving away to the East Midlands just so that we can afford to buy a house. Things are only going to get more expensive.

we have been looking to buy for over a year!! we are currently in bedfordshire but our budget doesnt buy what we need to are looking into Lincolnshire....house prices have gone crazy there too!

Beebumble2 · 13/04/2021 21:40

Oops wrong thread sorry!

Original poster

PraiseBee · 13/04/2021 21:47

Nightshade and mklanch - we moved to a new city in October, into rented to get ourselves familiar with the area and prices have gone up £50k in the meantime. This has been a long term plan for us so we're gutted. Couldn't have moved sooner due to having a baby. Its really upsetting. We have a £45k deposit which we were pretty pleased with after a lot of saving, but it's still not enough to secure a family home without high drama! What craziness is this.

OP posts:

Nightshade26 · 13/04/2021 22:19

@Praisebee we've scraped together about £20k for a deposit. Our monthly rent is £900 and our salaries aren't in line with the cost of living in this area, so it took a long time to claw enough to cover a 10% deposit.

£45k is incredible! Congratulations!

I can't believe the state of the market in this country. It's no wonder there are so many vacant houses. No one can afford to buy anything.

Original poster

PraiseBee · 13/04/2021 22:45

Nightshade - congrats on your £20k/10%. It is clawing your way there isn't it? We managed to get to 15% deposit with boost from my mum and dad, god love them!! But shouldn't be this way.
Our rent is currently £1350 but less than what we were paying before we moved. I'll blame the children, wouldn't need the bedroom and good schools if it's wasn't for them .
I think I'm fed up of the whole thing. High prices, and super competitive. High rent too, is grating. Will need to strengthen my resolve.
Good luck with finding somewhere!!!!

OP posts:

BrieAndChilli · 13/04/2021 23:00

I think that people need to stop looking at property as an investment that’s going to yield them mega bucks for doing nothing more than hangin on to it for a couple of years! And just concentrate on houses as a home.
In my area the average house is £333k the average wage is 31k so a house is 10 times the salary. When banks only lend up to 4.5 times salary that’s a lot of deposit for the ‘average’ person to find. Forget about the people on minimum wage, they have no hope.
We have finally managed to buy and luckily have been able to buy a house that is large enough for our needs (bedroom each for the 3 soon to be teen kids), 2 bathrooms, study etc so even if we stay here for ever it’s big enough for us, means we can ride out any drop in property prices that might put us in negative equity.
Our household income is a lot more than the average wage and we were gifted a 15% deposit along with finding a house that was priced to sell so have been lucky that with a few compromises (area and parking) we have got a house that ticks all our boxes.
There’s so many people that although are paying sky high rents can’t get a big enough deposit together or borrow enough money on a mortgage to even buy something that is way too small for them.
I don’t really know what the answer is but soon there is going to be a whole generation who can’t afford to buy.

StylishMummy · 13/04/2021 23:04

It's continuing to rise and will only stagnate, outside the M25 there won't be a drop in value- just a slow in growth. We bought for £427k in July 2020 and house is now worth £490k according to zoopla/HPI

Nightshade26 · 14/04/2021 08:14

@BrieAndChilli

I think that people need to stop looking at property as an investment that’s going to yield them mega bucks for doing nothing more than hangin on to it for a couple of years! And just concentrate on houses as a home. In my area the average house is £333k the average wage is 31k so a house is 10 times the salary. When banks only lend up to 4.5 times salary that’s a lot of deposit for the ‘average’ person to find. Forget about the people on minimum wage, they have no hope. We have finally managed to buy and luckily have been able to buy a house that is large enough for our needs (bedroom each for the 3 soon to be teen kids), 2 bathrooms, study etc so even if we stay here for ever it’s big enough for us, means we can ride out any drop in property prices that might put us in negative equity. Our household income is a lot more than the average wage and we were gifted a 15% deposit along with finding a house that was priced to sell so have been lucky that with a few compromises (area and parking) we have got a house that ticks all our boxes. There’s so many people that although are paying sky high rents can’t get a big enough deposit together or borrow enough money on a mortgage to even buy something that is way too small for them. I don’t really know what the answer is but soon there is going to be a whole generation who can’t afford to buy.

Absolutely hit the nail on the head, @BrieAndChilli!

I had an uncle tell me that I should cut down on 'luxuries' to be able to afford a home (keeping in mind that he bought a house in the early 90s and had a job which, in today's money, pays more than double our combined salary). When I asked what 'luxuries' he was referring to, he said holidays, cars, expensive clothes, that sort of thing.

We don't own a single car between us, I haven't been on holiday in over 15 years (so, the last one was when I was a teenager with my parents), and the most expensive thing in my wardrobe probably cost £20 and was bought several years ago.

I don't think a lot of people in the generation that began this trend of property being an 'investment' rather than a home truly understands how difficult it is for anyone to get onto the property ladder, now.

Sellstrom · 15/04/2021 16:15

I feel your pain, we are in a similar situation. We have a deposit saved now but can't compete with the crazy offers being made well over the asking price. Prices have increased a lot even in the last year and homes are selling within days. I worry that if we wait till next year to have a higher deposit then a potential crash in the economy means banks will stop lending. We're thinking of just buying a cheap flat so at least we have something to live in once the kids have left home! Paying sky high rent just now.

Smokeahontas · 16/04/2021 09:42

This is from The Times this morning

Anyone able to give me an educated guess as to what will happen with the housing market....

PicsInRed · 16/04/2021 12:54

Some houses near me were selling in less than a week and real estate agents were in the media asking for more stock to sell as they were literally running out of houses to sell. I thought that was fairly ludicrous.

Some are now selling STC in only one day.

It's madness.

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