The housing market over the next year or so

[Longheath8]

Does anyone who understands more about the economy that I do have any predictions as to what will happen to the housing market over the next year or so? I know it's impossible to know for certain but we are trying to move (were way before covid) and, as well as everything else, I am feeling anxious about proceeding with any purchase (this house is meant to be the forever house...the end result after ten years of saving so hard) when I feel like the fall out economically hasnt even begun. Would you move now unless your circumstances more or less forced it?

We are in the exact same boat, interested to see replies. Are you first time buyers? We are completely in limbo at the moment and house prices seem to have rocketed! We saw a house yesterday and looked at rightmove history and the house next door sold in November 2019 for £40k less! Exact exact same house! Seems ridiculous but the house will likely still get snapped up as they are doing round here. =s

So interesting...don't know of you've read my earlier post. No we are second time buyers. Have first time buyers waiting but they are getting impatient. Put an offer on last week on a house..we got it for 25k under asking price but I found out today next door sold in July for 55k less than we have offered. And 75k less than this house went on for a few weeks ago. Exact same house but they have a double garage extension and a separate single garage so so much more space for a lot less money. We have no idea what to do. A few people have suggested renting which terrifies me really...Two tiny kids, schools to think about, very few rentals, all way more than our mortgage and it feels risky when we have no idea what the market will do.

We are just going for it. Not first time buyers and we want to move to our forever home.

Sorry no havent seen your other posts! It sounds similar to the example I gave! It put us off viewing the other house it doesn't seem like a reasonable increase in price for such a small period of time. Would you consider waiting 6 months see how the market pans out?

It's so uncertain at the moment. We are relocating to be nearer to family so do need to move but think we are going to rent for a few months and see what happens with the market. It's a risk either way as no one really knows what will happen. The stamp duty thing is a big incentive for lots of people but certainly where we are looking sellers have put up prices which (more than!) makes up for it. Most predictions are that house prices will fall next year as the impact of recession continues to hit but that may mean there is less choice on the market as people will only move if they have to. Which might continue to prop up prices. It's really hard to say, I think all you can do is the right thing for you based on the information right now. While I initially really didn't want to rent there are advantages to it in our situation so I'm just trying to focus on those. My gut feeling is that process are artificially high at the moment and that this can't continue but who knows?

When we leave the EU at the end of the year mortgages will be easier to obtain because we won't be subject to the stringent affordability rules that the EU introduced.

I don't think house prices will fall much, if at all - High house prices are the only thing keeping the tories in power.

The housing market is complex and driven by economic fundamentals as well as emotions of people, this being the single most expensive asset owned by most people.
Current property rally is clearly fueled by people with good savings and secure jobs who have actually benefited from the lockdown. Saving on commute, eating out and entertaining, no holidays, less driving etc.
Most would be selling to upgrade to a bigger house but further away from their workplace. This has clearly increased demand and prices for country homes with big gardens etc.
The market for flats and houses in the city areas which are popular with investors are down. Rental market in cities is suffering with owners of lot of air bnb and rental properties aimed at city workers and tourists struggling.

This phase seems to be at its peak based on latest reports in media. Most who wanted to move have already commited to it. Prices are near their high for the medium term. Due to high demand, banks have actually started increasing mortgage rates, which are higher than in June.
So normal signs indicate that over next 5 months market will stay active and prices will drop a bit from current levels as everyone tries to close deals before the stamp duty holiday ends.
After that what happens will depend a lot on how Brexit pans out, what new housing policies Boris and Dominic cook up, whether we get a vaccine by Christmas and how many companies go bust.

If you like your house then I would stay to weather out the storm. If you don't then I would move as soon as you can. Buying houses was always seen as the way to make money however, I think those tunes have gone unless you can stay for a considerable period of time

If you’re planning a long term move don’t even worry about it. Prices have risen massively since the market opened back up (I think in our area over 2%) and whether that will be sustained remains to be seen, personally I think it may go back down a little once the effects of furlough and mass redundancy catches up with us. But, I would still move. If you’re there for long term does it matter if you overpay a little? If you’re happy there for a number of years do you care that much? House prices will rise over time, dips are only ever temporary, in the end you’ll profit if you weather any recession years. If you’re confident you can afford the new mortgage even if rates go up then go for it! Be happy. You only get one life why spend it worrying about if you’ve paid a few grand too much for your happiness?

When we leave the EU at the end of the year mortgages will be easier to obtain because we won't be subject to the stringent affordability rules that the EU introduced.

When we leave the EU at the end of the year with the no deal Brexit as planned by our disaster 'capitalist' government mortgages will be more difficult to obtain as most of our industry will relocate overseas.

Fixed it. We are fucked economically thanks to our weak government, but I think house prices won't drop significantly as sellers won't want negative equity, but at the same time buyers won't be in a position to buy unless they have cash.

We are looking to move at the minute and were slightly concerned by the increase in prices but like a pp has said, we are planning to stay in the next house long enough that if it goes down for a bit and then settles it wont matter to us.

Unfortunately we can't find a buyer for ours yet, the market already seems to have slowed down in our area. Massively busy July/August ish but we weren't able to get our house ready until September. Initially a fair amount of interest but nothing for the last couple of weeks.

mortgage affordability rules are UK regs, not set by the EU so will not be relaxed once we exit.

Op. If even the Bank of England can’t predict this, it’s very unlikely randoms on mumsnet can. They could increase,,maintain, or they could drop. That’s as accurate as you’re going to get if anyone actually knew they’d be a billionaire.

As for leaving with a similar scenario to no deal that’s highly unlikely. Most of it is already agreed and published by both sides inc things like customs procedures, don’t believe media click bait

The thing with houses is that even when everything points to a decline, recession, market crash etc it never really happens. Fundamentally in this country demand tends to outstrip supply in many areas.

Also as mentioned above despite it being the biggest investment any of us ever makes it is primarily an emotional decision.

If you want to buy and then move within 2 or 3 years then I'd say be cautious BUT if you are planning to live somewhere for 5 years or so then subject to short term dips prices tend to go only one way.

We have an increasing population and a housing shortage. The market won’t crash IMO. If there is any stalling In the market, it will recover.

The market stalls and dips from time to time. It’s very area specific. You need to research your area to make a best guess. Where I live even the bankers crash had no impact. Our current house has trebled in value over the last 15 years. If you’re happy to stay in a house until it’s worth more then I would buy. Rents are always more expensive than a mortgage with interest rates staying so low.

If you can afford it. Go for it.

We have a national shortage of housing stock and whilst there is a shortage the demand will obviously keep the prices up , the population is still growing and building is at capacity so the demand for housing will not be going away
The market may stall from time to time depending on many things , Covid , leaving the eu , recession , media hyped recession , borrowing capacity , employment etc etc but ultimately the market will always be supply and demand and the supply is lower than the demand

There are many threads over the years wondering ( hoping ) the market will crash and waiting for it to do so and they would be ready to snap up a bargain , I would suspect many people who have waited now may have missed the opportunity to purchase and are busy complaining that the house ownership is now beyond their reach.

Well I'm a FTB hopefully buying next Spring, so personally I'm hoping for a massive crash

I think it's very uncertain so personally I wouldn't move or if I did I'd sell & then go for rented. Depends where you are on the ladder though. There are loads of properties for sale on my street & surrounding streets & they all suddenly jumped by 50k in value. However some sales are starting to fall through now & I know some neighbours have accepted offers at least 10% under so the other properties look very expensive. Another neighbour who is very keen to sell reduced by 60k in a month which again makes others that are on sale or STC over priced.

I think what you should do depends on lots of factors. Do you love the house you're buying? Are you cash buyers and therefore won't end up in negative equity? Is it a long term move? I think if you're convinced the property you're buying is right for you, the short term movements of the market should be less of a concern. You mention you have a buyer - don't forget that any property price falls will also affect your own property.

In your position as second time buyers I would do it now. I think the market will stall when the stamp duty holiday ends, but that means if you lose your sale now you may struggle to find another buyer and the price you sell for may not be as good.

I do think the current system isn't working. I'm in London and in my area prices have pretty much stagnated since 2015 (Prices were already high though). I know lots of people stuck on the ladder because they are not making the equity gains of the past & salary growth isn't enough. I do think the increase in remote working will have an impact as it opens up more options.

If it's your forever home and you like it, then its value wont matter for many years as you have no intention of selling. If you can afford it just go for it.

London has stalled badly in the last few months, but think it will bounce back next year as people get a reality check on wfh. Although who knows.