The housing market over the next year or so

[Longheath8]

Does anyone who understands more about the economy that I do have any predictions as to what will happen to the housing market over the next year or so? I know it's impossible to know for certain but we are trying to move (were way before covid) and, as well as everything else, I am feeling anxious about proceeding with any purchase (this house is meant to be the forever house...the end result after ten years of saving so hard) when I feel like the fall out economically hasnt even begun. Would you move now unless your circumstances more or less forced it?

The only thing that really brought down the value of houses in 08 was the lack of available mortgages. I think that’s unlikely this time.

When we leave the EU at the end of the year mortgages will be easier to obtain because we won't be subject to the stringent affordability rules that the EU introduced.

We reintroduced most of those rules before the EU co-ordinated the response because removing them a few years earlier lead to a huge market crash. Every developed country in the world has done the same.

@Bouncycastle12 do you think wfh won't be a legacy? I was in the city last week & it was dead. DH works for a big firm and has been told it will never be as it was before & so far no return. Productivity didn't drop so lots of incentives for employers, they are saving thousands on catering, gym, cleaning, etc. A friend works for Morgan Stanley & similar story. Now the office won't disappear completely but it will likely be smaller, more modern & potentially there will be small hubs to bring people together.

I'm a Londoner & remember many areas that were quite neglected in the 90s as people lived less centrally. I wonder if its a cycle.

Does anyone who understands more about the economy that I do have any predictions as to what will happen to the housing market over the next year or so?

No. Ask two economists and you will get 6 predictions.

That said, you don't need loads of knowledge to realise that the biggest recession since the 20s us only going to send prices one way. Most of the debate is about how much and for how long.

I would not personally move now, unless going cheaper or needing to move and planning for it to be very long term. I would certainly not wish to overpay.

If it’s going to be a long term home, go for it, ours is on the market, we have been here 17 years, market in very slow in our area, we are going to take ours off the market & re-list in the Spring. Fed-up of viewings from potential buyers that aren’t proceed-able, due to still trying to sell there existing property. Not sure if the term forever home really works for most of us, we live in a 5 bed detached, large garden etc, life changes, kids grow up, health changes etc. Good luck with your move OP.

@StephenBelafonte

When we leave the EU at the end of the year mortgages will be easier to obtain because we won't be subject to the stringent affordability rules that the EU introduced.

I don't think house prices will fall much, if at all - High house prices are the only thing keeping the tories in power.

So the biggest recession in living memory will have little or no effect in your opinion, just the availability of debt? Excuse me if I beg to differ!

I would guess that homes in inner London may not be as popular and the new normal is here to stay and that people will want houses with gardens. Where my son is looking (I looked at 2 today for him from the outside) if you look at those that have sold on right move it is those he is after -with a garden, near the tube, no weird lay out.

Oh God, I’m laughing so hard at the idea that the EU created mortgage availability rules and once British banks are free of their shackles and can lend irresponsibly it will be boom time. Is it a bot or are their genuinely people who believe this shit?!

House prices will depend on the area. However, looking overall the generational aspect means that half of all properties are mortgage free
Given this how can it crash?

Maybe a massive stall is on the cards... people won’t move unles they desperately have to in an uncertain economy, esp if FTB cannot get credit

I was a FTB during/after credit crunch 2008-11: it went from needing 5pc deposit to 15pc deposit, same as now

Depends if you're downsizing or upgrading. If you're a staying the same,, doesn't make much difference apart from stamp duty, estate agent fees and other costs based on house price.

The housing market is driven by one thing - demand and supply. Worse recent since 1920s? Unlikely if the government keeps spending.

If the government props up demand, banks are willing to sell and people are willing to sell their houses, the the market will weather the storm.

The question is what would lead any of these market players to act in a way the breaks that smooth dance. Job loses is one but job loses are concentrated in specific service sectors and for lower paid jobs.

Consumer behaviour is key. Once they have the ability to spend (either their own cash or/and that of the bank) then the market will remain strong. Demand drives the economy.