May madness. Selling up anyway.

[AmandaHoldensLips]

We put off selling because of Brexit. Now we're on lockdown. In the spirit of "fuck it, what's the worst that can happen?" we have decided to put our house on the market next week anyway.

The thinking is that we can't be the only people who were putting off moving because of Brexit, so we can't be the only people who really want to sell up and move on.

Absolutely no idea how it's going to work out. Viewings are still banned, but I hope reckon people are still looking.

Is anybody else going "live to market" in lockdown?

I think there is quite a bit of FTB demand actually, talking to people we know. And we are ftbs carrying on, just not necessarily stretching themselves as they might have done before.

The general assumption around here (amongst our peers) is that bargains probably aren't to be had for most in the short term. For the following reasons:

1. Pent up demand due to Brexit
2. Fewer houses on market prevents big drops (as happened during Brexit talks)
3. Price drops due to repossessions etc will be staggered and delayed, particularly as the government is doing lots to help the economy rn and will probably carry on doing so.

I don't expect significant price drops simply because people think the market is uncertain. The first drop will only happen when down valuations start coming in. The second drop will happen when mortgage rates go up which I think will happen in 2022-2024. So overall I predict 30% drop in 3-4 years, but not overnight and extremely unlikely immediately after lockdown.

We are FTBs, buying and stuck at mortgage valuation stage (90% ltv). We will only proceed if the mortgage valuation matches (or is brought down to) the purchase price.

If I saw suitable properties advertised on Rightmove right now, during lockdown, I'd probably assume that vendors are pretty desperate to sell and would negotiate accordingly.

DS is selling his lovely two bed two bath flat near Hove station. He wants to buy in London (where he rents - new job)). He's going to see what happens now it's up for sale.

As long as you find a greater fool willing to buy and able to proceed, shouldn't be a problem.

@DesperateElf - I think your hope of a 30% reduction might be wishful thinking!

And sounds like @spellconnoisseur doesn't like people very much...

I think as long as supply is low, prices will hold. We sold our house just prior to brexit and all the uncertainty this brings. We sold at just under asking, after receiving 4 or 5 offers. If people aren’t desperate to sell they just won’t put their house on the market. I think prices of properties that have negative characteristics, like being on the main road or in unpopular areas, would be the ones that fall.

@AmandaHoldensLips I'm not fond of how housing turns people greedy and shortsighted, if that’s what you mean. It always amazes me that a site purportedly for mums is chock full of those so blind as to how they're screwing the next generation.

How are people going to get mortgages though? At the moment don’t you need something daft like a 40% deposit? It may be a while before the market gets moving again.

The banks changed their lending rules after the negative-equity scandal when people couldn't replay their loans. They added a "stress test" to check that people would still be able to afford their repayments if interest rates went up to 8%.

I think the banks new (and even never) criteria are completely stupid bearing in mind that paying a mortgage is often cheaper than paying rent. I also think that all the banks are complete bastards that couldn't give a crap about real people.

@AmandaHoldensLips - it doesn't come from a place of wishful thinking because we're mid-purchase and still need somewhere to live. We will be proceeding if possible, but will not be proceeding if purchase price and mortgage valuation don't match.

@Puffthemagicdragongoestobed yes supply is low but demand may become non-existent if FTBs are no longer able to get a mortgage covering the purchase price, or even any mortgage at all. It was already a buyer's market before lockdown, and will be continue to be buyer's market after. The problem for buyers is that the choice of properties is reduced so they need to be more flexible.

I think interest rates will go up drastically within the next 3 years, way more than 8%.

Most purchases are locked in chains. Chains depend on FTBs. FTBs depend on good mortgage rates and mortgage valuations covering purchase price.

Elf, I think you're right, and I would be very careful indeed were I a first-time buyer. We are very likely sailing into the biggest economic and employment crash in history, and one of the biggest political and social dislocations. And we're entering that from what was the generous would have called an asset-price bull market, the less generous a bubble. I can see an argument that life must go on, and if you feel you're at the right life stage to buy then you should buy. But this is not the time to apply that argument!

(And I write this as someone who stands to lose a large amount of money from any fall in house prices.)

I'm still looking but nothing come up for sale in the last 2 weeks in area I'm looking at, it's so annoying

30%?! @DesperateElf, where have you got your figures from? Lloyds' current predictions have -5% this year as it's most likely prediction and -15% as it's most severe case. I haven't seen any models which show 30%.

Not 30% in one year, but over three years. 10% this year, 10% more the next, and then 10% again.

@DesperateElf but where are you getting 10% per year from? Again, that doesn't follow any of the models I have seen

Lloyds severe downside scenario is 30% slide by 2022.

30% over three years is my thinking / interpretation. You don't have to agree.

Cool thanks. It's not about agreeing or disagreeing, but understanding where figures have come from.

There were lots of crazies on the property threads at the beginning of lockdown predicting ridiculous scenarios. When challenged, it turned out it was all in their heads, but that was after they'd put a lot of pressure on a naïve OP asking for help.

Thanks for clarifying. In that case we've missed out on the live market, Estate agent were supposed to do house pics and we were to sign sales contract on day of lockdown but our EA and many others closed.
I think Rightmove promotes the property for 2 weeks then it drops down the list so they thought it was best to put it on after lockdown when people can actually view it and it will be fresh on the market.

Estate agents around here are arranging viewings. They say that there has been a surge in interest as people who may have considered buying 2nd homes in Cornwall or Spain have been put off now and are upgrading instead.
If I was selling, I would put my house onto the market asap to capitalise on the stay-at-home vibe and to lock on a decent price before they start falling.
I'm also a bear with a negative view on prices in the medium term range. With the government paying 4 million salaries in furlough and no quick end to lockdown, I think the country will have to make hard choices soon and we'll see the trickle effect throughout the economy.
So it's a good time to sell but perhaps not such a good time to buy, unless you can weather a 15 or 20% decrease.

@Rivergreen it's not in anyone's interest to predict 20-30% drop in property prices, so you can't be overly reliant on analysis and figures handed over to you if this is likely to happen - who would be doing this for you and why? What would be their motivation, where would the money come from to do the analysis and writing up?

Moneysavingexpert forums already moderate house prices discussions very heavily in an attempt to prevent people from speculating about decreasing house prices, because this in itself can have an impact on house prices. For the society as a whole it's best if we keep believing that everything will be fine, but individually we are at conflict with this because individually we all benefit from as accurate prediction as possible.

Is it anyone’s interest to see more rises? How much money in this country is needlessly wasted servicing these huge debts when that money could flow around the economy and create jobs etc. House prices have been too high for too long and this will be the final straw.

There were lots of crazies on the property threads at the beginning of lockdown predicting ridiculous scenarios.

Is it a "ridiculous scenario" where we might live in a country where the cost of housing has a reasonable relationship to average people's salaries? Where Government props aren't necessary to afford the cost of one of life's necessities?

Doesn't sound so crazy to me.