House price bores this way, please...

[southutsire]

If you would like to discuss and pointlessly speculate about the housing market, please post here, so that I don't ruin dinner parties and every conversation I have in RL by boring everyone to death on the subject.

What do you think will happen in the next months and why?

Hello

Front page of The Times and The Standard at various points this week that property prices are going down.

I like the economist woman's 30% overvalued remark too even though I know she didn't say overvalued, she said 'can't be explained;'

" House prices 'will plummet by 10pc over the next year', says banking chief economist"

Already happening imo.Am looking atm and prices coming down defintely.10% is conservative though as that would only bring prices down to what they were at the beginning of the year when they were still unaffordable to many.

Don't you find it bizarre that people think it's perfectly rational for house prices to soar up 10% in a year, but first deny outright and then panic at the idea they might go down that much?

I agree with you, noddyholder - 10% is nothing. Have you noticed how the media predictions have changed over the past year:

House prices set to soar - get in quick!
Growth to slow a bit.
Growth to stagnate.
Prices to fall a little bit, but not very much.
Gosh, looks like prices might fall back to last year's levels!

Look forward to the next predictions...

I can't believe that people think it is normal for a home to cost 10x your wages and for people to go without a life in order to own property.I think by 2010 houses will be 30% cheaper but I need to buy next year as I want to be settled before ds starts gcse years so am hoping to find a bargain feb/march but don't expect I will be able to last til the market bottoms which will be much later.

we've just agreed a sale and are going into rented putting our equity into high interest accounts and any tax free vehicle we can find until we find a house we like

we had to drop ours by 10k though

jampot we have done the same but I have no patience and hate the rented place but fingers crossed for the new year!

It's where the smart money is! well, ours in the post office because I don't trust the banks... and now probably slightly lower-interest than it was yesterday

I was wondering today if the lag time, or the 'transaction friction' has a self-perpetuating effect on a declining market i.e. if in the time it takes between offer and exchange you see loads of headlines like '£5000 off average house price' do you not then go trotting straight to your seller (in this buyers' market) and say 'I want x% off or no deal' - I know I would , at which point reported prices keep going down and a "vicious" circle is effected. I suppose that didn't happen on the way up in a sellers' market, though...

the estate agents round here seem to be quite arrogant about house prices and i think they are keeping them high and trying to convince buyers they are still a bargain.

we've agreed with our buyers that the price they offered is now not negotiable even if a survey throws something up - which they are happy with

Agree with everyone who says it's odd that people can't understand that what goes up must come down and that the prev level of increases is unsustainable.

The papers are full of it again this week, predicting 30% or more drops

I have everything crossed not for a big crash just a bit of sanity!

They often have gone down. We bought a house around 1990 and sold it in 1997 for the same price. During that period it was worth less than we paid. We also sold two flats during that period for less than we paid for them. But over the 23 years I've owned property it has evened out and done well. It's just not a continuous curve - it goes up and down. Hopefully it will keep down a bit to give my older children the chance to buy.

bump for 2008

scampmum I think that's what happened last time property crashed.
Also you have to remember there is even more downward drag because once property starts to fall there is no reason to buy since it will be even cheaper next month!!
I was thinking about starting a thread asking everyone how much of a fall are they looking for (bearing in mnd that what you buy will carry on getting even cheaper for some time for most of us) but thought I would wait until after Christmas in case I got accused of being nasty!

I am looking at buying when prices reach 2005 levels which is about 15% down I think.It won't be long if the current financial headlines are anything to go buy.No matter how low interest rates go now i feel it is too late as multiples are out of control and lenders have reallt itghtened up.

Yeah I think the lenders will be the icing on the cake, don't think I'd really thought about that until recently. I think asking prices are about 10% down here allready (but the market was very very frothy and full of crap).
I suspect some new people on this street will win the award for having the highest priced house for quite some time. That would really make me feel sick.
I'm hoping for a bigger reduction than you! I reckon we'll get 30% of these asking prices no problem.

I'm watching all this with great interest.

Asking prices in my area of north London haven't dropped at all. The change here seems to be:

1. Less on the market
2. Asking prices are the same, but it has reverted back to the sane old way of people actually getting their asking price or considering negotiating with potential buyers who come in a bit lower.

This is a marked shift from the situation over the last few years. Over the summer, when we bought our house, most of the places were were seeing were going within a weekend for between £5k-£50k over the asking price after it going to sealed bids. It was a crazy situation. Our house went for £25k over the asking price after a virtual bidding war.

So - it's slowed and become a bit more 'reasonable' round here, but no sign of a dramatic fall in prices or 'property crash' yet.

I think we will see 30% by 2009-2010 but I need to buy this year as ds starts gcse and we need to be settled so am looking for 15% as a cash buyer.Fingers crossed x

Whereabouts are you noddy? I think you'd get that easily around here.
I found a nice house I wouldn't mind buying the other day (it's not for sale) looked it up on nethouseprices and it was about 1.6 million . Been trying to work out what % that needs to fall by!

propertysnake is showing much bigger reductions now

still nothing on the market to buy though...

I am in brighton.Yje house I want to buiy is owned by an property co in London .I bought the title online and looked them up and they are a big landlord offloading property like mad atm which is a sign of a falling market.Am going to offer 25% off this weekend and see what happens

oooh good luck noddy

thanks xx Dp will only consider it if I get a good bargain so fingers crossed.

good luck noddy let us know how you get on.
Early days yet blonde, most EA only opened this week (not that I'm looking!)

1dilemma - are you at work?