We're about to get a huge slump aren't we?

[Potatoduster]

My sale has just fallen through as my renegotiated price on the place I'm buying has been agreed!

There has been a rush to exchange before September and brexit. But now any new buyer isn't going to exchange before then

Anyone else think the slump will start soon? I was getting ready to move in a month. Now I'm thinking it could be at least another 6 months

Interest rates in the UK will not return to 5% within the next two decades.

why it isnt selling

Price! Always, always price!

Listening quietly... not 5% base rate but the lending rate more than likely will.

Interest rates in the UK will not return to 5% within the next two decades
I dont understand, how can you see into the future like this?

There are no economic or demographic pressures coming down the track that will push rates back up again in the UK or anywhere else in the Western World.
Populations are ageing and shrinking everywhere except Africa.
The economic powerhouse is now China (until its demographic time bomb explodes)
Climate change is going to become an increasing drag on all economies.
UK businesses are drowning in debt they can barely service
as are households.
Nothing points to a need for higher rates.

I'm laughing at the idea that people made the right financial decisions fgs! We got lucky!

I bought a flat 20 years ago in London for £140k. I sold it three year later for £300k. I bought another flat for £490k and sold it 8 years later for 1.6m. So 11 years and pretty much a million and a half profit.

That's not going to happen for the next generation.

Some lenders svrs are already not far off 5% (surprising degree of variation). I appreciate that many mortgage borrowers don't pay the svr, of course.

Out of interest, and because I always wonder about this-are you a millionaire now @PegasusReturns or did you buy another (I'm assuming in London) expensive house?

What mortgage lenders charge is linked to the base rate but not tightly.

Just before the crash it was possible to get mortgages on base + 0.5%
with a 100% interest only, no capital mortgage
those days are gone

SVRs are currently around base plus 2%
even most fix deals work out at that once you average the up front fee across the repayment term

business loans are running at around 4-6%
personal at around 5-7%

and the liabilities around PCP are the next PPI scandal

the UK is a low growth, low productivity, low interest rate economy now

@Hotbiscuits I bought another expensive house with a 7 figure "deposit" and a big mortgage. I was doing well professionally and so they seems like a good step.

A couple of years ago my circumstances changed again and I upgraded again without a mortgage. I've been very fortunate.

All this is also reason for the now huge-and I can’t work out how this will change-disparity in wealth between the South East and most other places. Anyone in line to inherit a family home in central London-which their parents probably bought for a sensible price in the 80s-will be astonishingly well off compared to their counterparts in the regions.

Most svrs are base plus 4%

People are holding out til they know what is happening with brexit. We are waiting a year. No way was I going to risk taking out a big mortgage pre brexit.

I wonder who is going to buy all the boomer houses? That generation will need care home fees or their relations will sell their houses but unless there's someone to buy them they will fall in price.

Most professionals I know are at their limits with a smaller house and young people with low wages, debt and insecure work can't afford anything.

With less boomers remortgaging to get starter homes on BTL that competition is less.

Could see them falling 5%+ a year for several years to get them back inline with wages. PPI claims are ending soon.

There could be a lot of repossessions in the near future if prices drop just a little bit because house prices haven't gone up around london for around 3 years now and peoples cheap teaser 2 or 3 year fixed rates will be coming to an end.
Might not be enough equity to remortgage and those who have stretched themselves to the limit will be rolled onto svr of circa 4.5% instead of the sub 2% teaser rate
I know of 2 people that are very concerned about this, 1 bought their flat 3 years ago for 285k and has just been valued by the mortgage company at 270k, their mortgage is just over 250k so can just about get a 95% mortgage, those who paid silly prices a few years ago will get burnt

We paid 345k for our flat (London, 2 bedrooms, no garden) with a 10% deposit in early 2016 and it was valued at 375k last week. I doubt we'd get that much for it but that's OK.

bummy it (unfortunately) means very little until you learn what an actual buyer will actually pay for it - leading to even more uncertainty all round. Zoopla doesn't know, Foxtons doesn't know, frankly sometimes even bank valuations seem to be swayed by the prevailing heat of the market.

To be honest hummus when remortgaging the only value that matters is the banks

Valuations just vary so much. What a surveyor thinks something is worth and what someone will pay for it is often very different.

90% offers seem pretty common these days. I accepted one that was 92%

The flat next door which is the same size as ours sold last week at 372, it was priced at 379.

Individual prices don't really matter much. A property often goes for more if someone is really interested and doesn't mind spending over the odds or two people are bidding against it.

I know someone that sold a flat for 270k it's full asking even though similar ones went for 250k a few months before. It just had two people after it and one wanted it quickly and she was in no rush to sell so they paid the overpriced valuation.

What I'm basically saying is there's not much point in worrying about it.

I get the feeling there are some who are positively rubbing their hands with glee to think some might have paid too much money for a house and will end up losing out.

And also you can't really say a property is overpriced if someone is willing to pay the asking for it, if you are of the opinion is it is worth what people are willing to pay for it.

We are just buying out first house (they accepted a 90% offer and I didn’t think that was cheeky btw, just the nature of the game).
We wanted to get in on a fixed rate before Brexit as it’s a house we won’t outgrow and based it only on one salary Incase we run into trouble.
But the housing market here seems to have started to slump already (SE) a lot of houses have been sitting on the market for ages and are all coming down in price.
We were tempted to hold our nerve a bit longer to see if we could get a better deal on a further reduction on a property but saw something we really loved so went for it.

they accepted a 90% offer and I didn’t think that was cheeky

I advise anyone not too become overly focused on % reduction from asking price when putting forward an offer. Asking prices are arrived out by individual sellers advised by different estate agents and do not follow one uniform pattern.