We're about to get a huge slump aren't we?

[Potatoduster]

My sale has just fallen through as my renegotiated price on the place I'm buying has been agreed!

There has been a rush to exchange before September and brexit. But now any new buyer isn't going to exchange before then

Anyone else think the slump will start soon? I was getting ready to move in a month. Now I'm thinking it could be at least another 6 months

@BlueSkiesLies you've got a bad attitude.

It's a bit of a fallacy to think that the value of your house increasing helps you to get up the ladder because the house you're looking for will have gone up, too, probably by a lot more, if it's in a more desirable area.

I hope so (somewhat sneakily) need to agree a house value and equity with stbexh and he needs to buy a place, if our house is worth under a certain amount (£100k less than currently) I can take the equity in lieu of him having the savings to buy another house . Really selfish I know

Surprised no one has mentioned stamp duty. Javid hasn't indicated when the next budget will take place and there could be changes to stamp duty that might mean its worth waiting to see what's happening then.

I mentioned stamp duty, I don't believe any politician but if it happened it would save me quite a lot of money. It's interesting to say the least

Sorry I missed it @Neron. I promise I RTFT!

I think a lot of people will be wondering about it @PeaBea, we certainly are as from mine and DH perspective as he is a FTB and I am not, so we would save a huge amount if it came in. It's a sticking point for people upsizing so maybe the market would start to pick up again as those currently unable to move due to stamp duty cost may be able to if it changed.
That said, we need to move so are actively looking, but it would be great news if we could save that cost at least. Who knows, politicians will say anything!

I've seen a massive slow down in our previously very buoyant market town, where demand has always outstripped supply and prices have traditionally been very high. So many reductions, pretty much every RM listing is showing as reduced. Houses that would have sold within days are sitting around for months. If i were selling i'd be worried

Only reason for high house prices is low interest rates... cheap money equals high prices... if interest rates go back up to their long term average of around 5% house prices would probably fall up to 50% in some cases... dont be over leveraged

if interest rates go back up to their long term average of around 5%

Something that is highly, highly, unlikely.

Plenty of 10yr fixed rates available at around 2.3%, indicating banks do not expect rates to move significantly for some time.

Getting up to 5% any time soon is highly unlikely I agree
Rates going any lower... more unlikely
Therefore house prices have reached their peak affordability and have turned or stagnated which will likely continue for the foreseeable future
Unless the government come up with another crazy scheme like htb on 2nd hand homes... which I wouldnt put past them, if that happens then prices will jump again, but it will just make the next inevitable crash much much worse

We need a slump to bring prices back in line with wages but there's no pain free way for this to happen 🤒

You are right whosorrynow but it seems the government want to delay that pain for as long as possible

stagnated

Yep, I agree Alexa, a prolonged period of price stagnation is looking most likely.

Only problem is it wont help much as wages are so far behind the curve even a 20 year stagnation wont let them catch up
Like a previous poster said 3.5x a graduates salary used to buy a house, now you need 10x
Cant see graduate salaries tripling in the next 20 years... or any salary for that matter

I don't know, I think 20years might change the outlook somewhat.

What are we saying counts as a graduate salary today, and what sort of house did it used to be able to buy?

Well then I guess people will just need to save a bit longer, expecting a 50% drop in house prices is insane!!

No one has a crystal ball, anything could happen

What are we saying counts as a graduate salary today, and what sort of house did it used to be able to buy?
Average graduate salary : £30,000
www.graduate-jobs.com/gco/Booklet/graduate-salary-salaries.jsp
Homes that were bought by people graduating when I did (we all expected to buy 3 bed semis or terraces)
www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-63957042.html
www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-82195712.html

No one predicted a 50% drop rzasoshp...I read your comments earlier about what you feel your flat is worth yadayadayada... it's worth what someone will pay for it... and someone always pays the peak price... in your case it might have been you
House prices go up and down, always have done with an upward trend... but nothing goes up forever.

Indeed, your flat is worth 1 flat, your house is worth 1 house

I would agree average graduate is 30k
Average house is probably a 2 bed terrace
But most houses are bought with 2 salaries these days
So what major towns and cities can you buy a 2 bed terrace for under 200k? None around me in the south east of london
You probably could have before the crazy rises from 2012 onwards, but they are now 350kish for no reason other tha cheap credit and the 40% htb effect in london

Rzasoshp stick a link to your flat in here and I'm sure you will get some opinions on why it isnt selling

No one predicted a 50% drop

if interest rates go back up to their long term average of around 5% house prices would probably fall up to 50% in some cases